About 618,523 people will have died from coronavirus in the US by August 1, according to the latest forecast from the University of Washington Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation’s (IHME) influential coronavirus model.
That projection accounts for the scale up of Covid-19 vaccine distribution in the US over the next 90 days and continued spread of the B.1.1.7 virus variant throughout the nation.
An April 1 forecast projected 609,000 deaths by July 1 and warned that continued relaxation of public health measures and increases in mobility could lead to large surges of cases, like those seen in Michigan.
In the worst-case scenario, in which fully vaccinated people return to pre-pandemic levels of mobility, the model predicts 697,573 deaths by August 1. If 95% of the US population wore masks, the projection drops to 604,413 deaths by August 1.