Coronavirus model projects 134,000 deaths in US, nearly double its last estimate
From CNN's Eric Levenson, Madeline Holcombe, Arman Azad and Steve Almasy
An influential coronavirus model often cited by the White House is now forecasting that 134,000 people will die of Covid-19 in the United States, nearly double its previous prediction.
The model, from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, had predicted 72,433 deaths as of Monday morning.
Relatedly, a Trump administration model projects a rise in coronavirus cases and deaths in the weeks ahead, up to about 3,000 daily deaths in the US by June 1, according to an internal document obtained by The New York Times. Over the past week, about 2,000 people died daily in the US, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.
Why the increase? The sharp increases in the two models are tied to relaxed social distancing and increased mobility in the US. States across the country -- including Florida, Colorado, Indiana, Nebraska and South Carolina -- have eased restrictions in an attempt to revive a sputtering economy and calm restless residents.
IHME director Dr. Christopher Murray told CNN's Wolf Blitzer that other factors included states adding presumptive coronavirus deaths to their statistics and the rising number of cases in some meatpacking plants in the country.
He said states have to balance their actions.
"I think the challenge for us all is to figure out what's the trajectory of relaxing social distancing on a measured pace that will protect us from big increases or even a full-scale resurgence," he told CNN.
The risk of reopening: The projections make clear that these reopenings come with fatal risks.
"It's simple logic," CNN's senior medical correspondent Elizabeth Cohen said. "When you tell people, 'Hey, you can go to bars, you can get your nails done, you can go to a restaurant,' those numbers are going to go up."
Intel shared among US allies indicates virus outbreak more likely came from market, not a Chinese lab
From CNN's Alex Marquardt and Kylie Atwood
Intelligence shared among Five Eyes nations indicates it is "highly unlikely" that the coronavirus outbreak was spread as a result of an an accident in a laboratory but rather originated in a Chinese market, according to two Western officials who cited an intelligence assessment that appears to contradict claims by US President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.
"We think it's highly unlikely it was an accident," a Western diplomatic official with knowledge of the intelligence said. "It is highly likely it was naturally occurring and that the human infection was from natural human and animal interaction."
The countries in the Five Eyes intelligence-sharing coalition are coalescing around this assessment, the official said, and a second official, from a Five Eyes country, concurred with it. The US has yet to make a formal assessment public.
Not certain: A third source, also from a Five Eyes nation, told CNN that the level of certainty being expressed by Pompeo and Trump is way out in front of where the current Five Eyes assessment is. This source acknowledged that there is still a possibility that the virus originated from a laboratory, but cautioned there is nothing to make that a legitimate theory yet.
The source added that "clearly the market is where it exploded from," but how the virus got to the market remains unclear.
But without greater cooperation and transparency from the Chinese it's impossible to say with total certainty, the first official added.
What is the Five Eyes? The Five Eyes alliance is made up of the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, Australia and New Zealand -- and the countries share a broad range of intelligence in one of the world's tightest multilateral arrangements.
The third source said it is also possible the US is not sharing all of its intelligence. While the overwhelming majority is shared among the Five Eyes members, there are pockets of information that each country keeps to itself.
The assessment follows repeated claims by Trump and Pompeo that there is evidence the virus originated at the Wuhan Institute of Virology.
"I can tell you that there is a significant amount of evidence that this came from that laboratory in Wuhan," Pompeo told ABC News on Sunday.
World leaders pledge $8 billion for coronavirus treatments and vaccines
From CNN's Mia Alberti and Sharon Braithwaite
World leaders have pledged a total of $8 billion for the development and deployment of diagnostics, treatments and vaccines against the novel coronavirus.
The donations came flooding in during a virtual pledging conference on Monday, co-hosted by the European Union, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Saudi Arabia, Norway, Spain and the UK. The US did not participate.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said, “Today the world showed extraordinary unity for the common good. Governments and global health organizations joined forces against coronavirus. With such commitment, we are on track for developing, producing and deploying a vaccine for all. However, this is only the beginning. We need to sustain the effort and to stand ready to contribute more. The pledging marathon will continue."
Here's what some of the leaders are promising:
Norway pledged $1 billion in contributions, Switzerland promised $381 million and the Netherlands $209.5 million.
Australia pledged $352 million Australian dollars, which is about $226 million.
Italy's Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte pledged $152.7 million, while South Korea announced a contribution of $50 million and Kuwait promised to donate $40 million.
South Africa said it would pledge $1.3 million and raise a further $61 million from member states of the African Union. Israel promised to invest $60 million in the effort to respond to the pandemic.
Ireland is donating almost $20 million. Luxembourg pledged $5.45 million, Sweden $17 million, Portugal $10.9 million, Croatia $1.09 million, Finland $39.3 million. Bulgaria and Romania pledged $109,000 and $218,000, respectively.
Serbia announced a contribution of $2.18 million, Slovenia $33.6 million, and the Czech Republic announced a joint pledge with Poland, Hungary and Slovakia of $3.27 million.
Meanwhile, Melinda Gates, co-founder of the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, pledged $100 million to the effort.
Other countries such as the UAE, Oman, Turkey, Monaco and China also promised to contribute to the efforts against Covid-19 without mentioning an amount.
8:57 p.m. ET, May 4, 2020
French hospital reports evidence patient had coronavirus in December
From CNN’s Maggie Fox and Edward Upright
Doctors at a Paris hospital claim to have found evidence a patient who got sick in December was infected with the novel coronavirus.
If verified, it may show the virus was circulating in Europe as early as December. The first reports of Covid-19 in France were reported on January 24, in two people who had a history of travel to Wuhan, China.
“Covid-19 was already spreading in France in late December 2019, a month before the official first cases in the country,” the team at Groupe Hospitalier Paris Seine in Saint-Denis wrote.
Yves Cohen and colleagues at the Paris hospital decided to check the records of patients who got sick before the January 24 cases to see if the virus may have been spreading undetected earlier than first thought.
The French team looked at people admitted to the hospital with flu-like illnesses between December 2 and January 16 who were not subsequently diagnosed with influenza. The doctors re-tested samples stored in a freezer for coronavirus.
“One sample was positive, taken from a 42-year-old man born in Algeria, who lived in France for many years and worked as a fishmonger,” the team wrote in the International Journal of Antimicrobial Agents. “His last trip was in Algeria during August 2019,” they wrote. The man had not been to China, and one of his children had also been sick, the team reported. “Identifying the first infected patient is of great epidemiological interest as it changes dramatically our knowledge regarding SARS-COV-2 and its spreading in the country. Moreover, the absence of a link with China and the lack of recent travel suggest that the disease was already spreading among the French population at the end of December 2019,” they wrote.
Remember: This claim has not yet been independently verified.
Europe did not start reporting cases of coronavirus until January. In Italy, the European country hit hardest by the virus, the first two cases were reported on January 31, in two Chinese tourists in Rome. The first known community transmission was recorded in February in Codogno, in northern Italy.