The influential coronavirus model by the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation now calls today the peak day for new deaths, and revises several key numbers slightly.
The model update, released this afternoon, keeps peak hospital resource use on Saturday. But it moves peak death numbers to today instead of Sunday, and the number now peaks at a projected 1,983 — down from about 2,200 in an earlier version.
As for overall projected deaths, the model now projects about 61,500 in the US by August, compared to about 60,000 earlier this week
IHME has constantly been updating the model as new real-time data comes in.
Remember: The model assumes full social distancing measures in place through the end of May. But the real future of those measures is unclear as the federal and state governments weigh plans to reopen schools, businesses and other parts of society.