Hurricane Sally heads toward US Gulf Coast

Some of the main ways that scientists believe global warming is influencing hurricanes and making their impacts worse — Hurricane Sally looks to be checking all of those boxes. Here's a look at how the climate crisis could be impacting the storm:

Rapid Intensification

Hurricane Sally officially "rapid intensified" on Monday, a term that refers to a storm’s maximum sustained winds increasing at least 35 mph in 24 hours or less, according to the National Hurricane Center. 

Sally saw top winds increase from 60 mph to 100 mph in 12 hours, from 5 a.m. to 5 p.m. Monday.

Rapid intensification is one of the ways scientists believe climate change is impacting hurricanes, with warmer waters helping storms to grow stronger and do so faster. Hurricanes Hanna and Laura also rapidly intensified earlier this year before making landfall in Texas and Louisiana respectively. Rapid intensification is especially dangerous when in happens in the 24 to 48 hours before a storm reaches land — and that is exactly what we have seen with Sally, Laura and Hanna this year.

Slowing Down

Sally is moving at 2 mph — slower than an average human walking pace.

Hurricanes and tropical storms are moving slower around the planet, says a study from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration scientist James Kossin, who analyzed hundreds of storms in all basins over decades.

The slower a storm moves, the more rain it can drop on a particular area, and the longer severe winds have to weaken infrastructure.

The 2018 study in the scientific journal Nature showed a 10% decrease in forward speed globally between 1949 and 2016, though there is some variation among ocean basins. Recent storms that have devastated the US such as Hurricane Harvey in Texas and Hurricane Florence in the Carolinas have moved extremely slow, allowing for massive rainfall totals and flooding. 

It looks like Hurricane Sally will be another storm with that trend.

Increased Rainfall

Historic flooding is possible with Hurricane Sally, according to the National Hurricane Center, because of the amount of rain that is forecast over the next 48 hours.

Scientists are very confident that climate change is making storm rainfall worse, by increasing the rate at which it falls as well as the amount of rain a storm can produce.

“Simply put, warmer air holds more water vapor,” according to Jim Kossin, an Atmospheric Research Scientist at NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information.

The Gulf of Mexico water temperatures are largely above average and the Northern Hemisphere has just finished its hottest summer on record, which allows storms like Sally to hold more moisture and produce more rain. With Sally, projections are for 3-4 months’ worth of rain before the storm leaves the region on Thursday.

Hurricane Sally, a Category 1 storm with 85 mph winds, is now 55 miles east of the mouth of the Mississippi River, according to the National Hurricane Center's 11 a.m. ET update.

"Historic flooding is possible from Sally with extreme life-threatening flash flooding likely through Wednesday along portions of the northern Gulf Coast," the center warned in its latest advisory.

Here's a look at Sally's latest projected path:

The mayor of Biloxi, Mississippi, Andrew "FoFo" Gilich is asking all residents to finalize their storm preparations ahead of Hurricane Sally's expected landfall, according to a news release from the city.

Sally is expected to make landfall in Biloxi as a Category 1 storm overnight on Wednesday. 

Due to the slow-moving nature of this storm, one of the concerns is the amount of rainfall, Biloxi Emergency Manager Nick Geiser said.

Residents living along rivers and in other low-lying areas are being told to plan accordingly. Prolonged power outages due to heavy winds are also expected. 

While Hurricane Sally is pounding the US Gulf Coast will rain today and threatening the area with possible flooding, unprecedented wildfires are ravaging the US West Coast from California to Washington state.

Along the Gulf Coast, forecasters are warning of life-threatening storm surge, including 6 to 9 feet from coastal Mississippi to Mobile, Alabama, and up to 7 feet along the rest of coastal Alabama.

And on the other side of the country, dozens of wildfires are scorching the West Coast. In California alone, since the start of 2020 wildfires in California have burned over 3.2 million acres of land — an area almost the size of Connecticut.

Oregon Gov. Kate Brown said in a typical year, fires consume about 500,000 acres in the state — but "this week alone, we burned over a million acres of beautiful Oregon," she said. And last week in Washington, more acres were burned in the state on a single day than were charred in the past 12 fire seasons, Gov. Jay Inslee said.

While the dual disasters are impacting opposite ends of the country, they may have a common factor: The climate crisis.

Scientist believe global warming is influencing hurricanes in multiple ways — and Hurricane Sally has checked all those boxes. Climate change appears to lead to rapid intensification, the slowing down of hurricanes and increased rainfall, which can make for more problematic storms.

And as the wildfires rage in California, Both Gov. Gavin Newsom and Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti have attributed the severity of this season's fires to climate change.

A National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration satellite captured images of the effects of both the wildfires and the Hurricane Sally. Smoke from the West Coast fires have blanketed most of the country, and now can be seen along the Atlantic Coast, close to the hurricanes:

Hurricane Sally is churning off the US Gulf Coast, pounding the area with rain ahead of its landfall. But the slow-moving storm may not move over land until tomorrow.

Here are the possible storm impacts that forecasters are warning about:

Sally is moving at 2 mph as of the 8 a.m. ET update from the National Hurricane Center. That is slower than most humans walk — and that is not necessarily a good thing. 

On average most humans walk about 3 to 4 mph. When a storm comes to a crawl this close to land, as we're seeing with Sally, it allows the storm to send copious amounts of rain on shore for days. 

This isn't the first time a storm has moved this slow. Hurricane Harvey drenched Texas for days, Florence did the same to the Carolinas and the slowest moving Atlantic tropical cyclone in history, Dorian, drenched the Bahamas. 

Rain is already falling from the outer bands of Sally from Naples, Florida, to Biloxi, Mississippi. 

"Historic flooding is possible with extreme life-threatening flash flooding likely through Wednesday," the National Hurricane Center says.

As the hurricane sluggishly moves toward a landfall on the Gulf Coast, it will produce widespread rainfall amounts of 10 to 20 inches. Isolated storm total amounts of 30 inches are possible from western Florida to the southeastern Mississippi coast. 

Gor more reading on why tropical cyclones are slowing down

A National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration satellite captured images of the effects of two natural disasters threatening the US.

An image of the US East Coast — where two hurricanes are currently spinning — also showed smoke from the West Coast wildfires that are ravaging California, Oregon and Washington. The smoke has traveled from the Pacific Coast across most of the country.

In the image below, which was taken yesterday, you can see Hurricane Sally approaching the US Gulf Coast. Hurricane Paulette is tracking into the Atlantic off the US East Coast.

Take a look:

The City of Pensacola, Florida, has declared a local state of emergency as Hurricane Sally is set to approach parts of the panhandle, according to a release from the city. 

Pensacola Mayor Grover Robinson issued the declaration yesterday. 

All city offices are closed today and residents are urged to prepare disaster kits, which should include seven days of food and water supplies for after storm arrives. Residents are also encouraged to fuel all vehicles and generators and prepare all medications for family and pets. 

Sally is expected to bring life threatening flash flooding from Mississippi into the Florida Panhandle. 

National Hurricane Center Director Ken Graham warned that slow-moving Hurricane Sally could produce 30 inches of rain in some places.

The hurricane is moving at just 2 mph, making it difficult for rain to drain and “incredibly dangerous.”

“The slower the movement, you have more time to push the water in,” he added.

Graham also cautioned that inland areas should be on alert, as some rain bands could produce tornadoes and flooding. 

“People even inland, hundreds of miles inland, just realize: keep an eye on that forecast and watch for those warnings,” he said. 

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