The latest on the 2020 election

President Donald Trump speaks during a campaign rally at Bemidji Regional Airport, Friday, September 18, in Bemidji, Minnesota.

Minnesota is reporting three Covid-19 outbreaks related to Trump campaign events held in September.

At least 23 cases have been traced to outbreaks occurring at rally events in Bemidji on Sept. 18, a speech held by Vice President Mike Pence on Sept. 24 in Minneapolis, and another rally held by the President on Sept. 30 in Duluth, the Minnesota Department of Health said in an email to CNN.

President Trump’s Bemidji rally took place in an airport hanger. According to a CNN producer who attended the event, at least 2,000 people were in attendance. Based on contact tracing by the state department of health, at least 16 cases, including two hospitalizations, were identified among attendees.

In the month proceeding the rally, the seven-day average of new cases in Beltrami County, where Bemidji is located, was 2.85 new cases a day, according to Johns Hopkins University. On the day of the rally it had climbed up slightly to three new cases a day. But four weeks after, the average rate of new cases in the county had increased more than fourfold, reaching an average of 14.57 new cases a day.

On Sept. 24, Pence and Ivanka Trump held a “Cops for Trump” listening event indoors at the InterContinental Hotel in Minneapolis-St. Paul. The state department of health has traced three attendees of the event with Covid-19 infections.

In the month before the event, the seven-day average was just under 180 new cases in Hennepin County and had dropped to an average of 169 new cases on the day of the Vice President’s visit, according to Johns Hopkins. A month later on Oct. 24, that daily new case average was over 266 new cases a day.

The increase in cases coincides with an overall upward trend of new cases in the state of Minnesota that started Sept. 10. The state’s average number of new cases was 727 on Sept. 18 and had more than doubled a month later to 1,506 new cases a day. The state set a record number of new cases a day on Oct. 16 with 2,290 cases.

Another four cases have been traced by the Minnesota Department of Health to a rally the President held on Sept. 30 in Duluth.

Minnesota defines an outbreak as “two or more cases of illness related by time and place in which an epidemiologic investigation suggests either person-to-person transmission occurred” or some other vehicle, such as contaminated water, is implicated.

Public health experts say it is difficult to pinpoint any one event to overall changes in trends in light of the fact that there is overall increased community transmission. But experts also agree that holding such events in this climate is not a best practice for public health. 

In addition to the rally on Sept. 18, a counter protest also resulted in an outbreak of four cases. The state has also traced an additional case each to both a Biden rally on Sept. 18 as well as an event attended by the President’s son, Eric Trump, in Becker on Oct. 1. 

This post has been updated with the latest case figures traced to outbreaks occurring at rally events in Bemidji, Minnesota.

Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden will travel to Iowa Friday, his campaign said.

Biden said Monday that his decision to travel to Iowa does not mean he’s “overconfident” about his ability to win other states but rather that he’s trying to “make sure we win every vote possible.”  

“I’m gonna be going to Iowa, I’m going to Wisconsin, I’m going to Georgia, I’m going to Florida, and maybe other places as well,” he said. 

Iowa is a state that President Trump won in 2016 after Barack Obama won in 2008 and 2012.  

Kamala Harris announced on Twitter today that she voted early.

“I voted early — have you?” Harris tweeted.

A Harris aide said that she and her husband Douglas Emhoff mailed their ballots in from DC on Monday. 

Last week, Harris confirmed that she had filled out her mail-in ballot but was waiting to mail it until she could alongside her husband, when asked by a network pool reporter on Friday.

The California senator first confirmed she would be voting by mail in a fundraiser with former President Barack Obama earlier this month.

Read the tweet:

Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden is in Chester, Pennsylvania, in Delaware County where he will visit a voter activation center field office.

Per the campaign, he’ll greet voters, say a few words, take a few photos but remain outside the office the whole time.

President Donald Trump arrives for a rally on Monday, October 26, in Lititz, Pennsylvania.

President Trump has wrapped after speaking for an hour and 28 minutes at his second Pennsylvania rally Monday.

Trump didn’t make any news in this rally in Lititz, Pennsylvania — sticking to familiar talking points.

He now heads to his third and final stop in the state in Martinsburg, Pennsylvania.

An envelope of a Pennsylvania official mail-in ballot for the 2020 general election in Marple Township, Pennsylvania, on October 13.

Pennsylvania Democrats asked the Supreme Court on Monday to deny a request from Republicans in the battleground state to block a ballot receipt deadline. 

Last Friday, Republicans asked the justices to reverse the Pennsylvania Supreme Court that allowed the counting of ballots three days after the election even if the postmark is illegible.

They asked the justices to decide the issue before next week’s election and reinstate an election day deadline. 

In the new petition, former Solicitor General Don Verrilli, a lawyer for the Democrats, urged the justices to deny the Republican party’s “extraordinary and unjustified request for expedition” and allow Pennsylvania “to hold its federal elections under existing rules.” 

Some more context: Earlier in the month, the Supreme Court deadlocked 4-4 on a petition from the Republicans asking the justices to put the lower court opinion on hold pending appeal. Chief Justice John Roberts sided with the liberals to allow the extension. It would have taken five justices to grant the request. 

Now the Republicans are trying again, with the knowledge that Amy Coney Barrett might cast a critical vote.

The "Little White House" is seen onApril 13, 1945, where the US President Franklin D. Roosevelt died on the afternoon of April 12, 1945 at Warm Springs in Georgia.

A Biden campaign aide tells CNN that Biden’s remarks tomorrow in Warm Springs, Georgia will act as a closing argument to Americans and will build upon the themes we heard from Biden’s speech in Gettysburg and his DNC acceptance speech in August.

The aide said Biden will drive home the importance of national unity to overcome the vitriol and partisan polarization the nation is facing and reiterate this is a moment to act as an ally of the light.

They added Biden’s trip to Georgia on Tuesday shows how serious the campaign is about the state.

Some more context: The historical significance of Warm Springs and its association with President Franklin Roosevelt will also play into the speech.

Roosevelt’s personal retreat in Warm Springs became known as “The Little White House.” The aide said there’s an “obvious parallel” to be drawn as Biden would be entering office under economic circumstances not seen since the Great Depression and that he is proposing bold action in the same way Roosevelt did.

Sen. Kamala Harris underwent PCR testing for coronavirus Monday and Covid-19 was not detected, according to a Harris aide.

Harris is in Washington, DC, today and is expected to attend the Senate vote at the Capitol on Judge Amy Coney Barrett’s confirmation, CNN’s Manu Raju reports.

It will be her first Senate vote since Aug. 6.

Tuesday she’ll head to Nevada for a day of campaigning and Arizona on Wednesday.

Trump campaign manager Bill Stepien, senior adviser Jason Miller and communications director Tim Murtaugh just held a press call with reporters where they said they are confident the President is growing his base and will be able to win battleground states on Election Day.

The campaign distanced themselves from the current poll numbers, with Stepien telling reporters: “Polls always mattered to some but they mattered less these days because more and more actual votes have been cast every single day.” 

He later added: “Ground game matters — in state after state, we can see the result of President Trump’s grassroots operation, which is simply the best that’s ever been built. When we analyze the returns and the vote totals in these states, we continue to see positive trends every single day.”

Stepian said the campaign “expected” that Democrats would take an early lead in the absentee voting period and believe that gap is being “eaten up.”

“Early leads, built by Democrats in the absentee voting period, we know that, we’ve seen that, we expected that, it still drew a lot of attention by those who cover these races, but more importantly, every single day we see that early lead that the Democrats once had eaten up as they leave absentee votes on the table because they don’t have a ground game to draw those votes and turn those ballots into actual votes.”

Stepien said that Trump “is expanding his base and turning out brand new voters.”

Trump campaign senior adviser Jason Miller then joined the call, where he touted an additional $6 million in ads, in addition to the $55 million, two-week buy announced last week, “focused, largely on, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan,” adding, “We’ll also be adding on to our buy in Minnesota.” 

When she arrives today for her first Senate vote since Aug. 6, Democratic vice presidential nominee Sen. Kamala Harris is not expected to speak on the floor, an aide said. 

The Senate is expected to confirm Trump’s Supreme Court nominee Amy Coney Barrett this evening.

DC Mayor Muriel Bowser

Asked about the outdoor event the White House is planning to host on Monday evening following the Senate vote to confirm Judge Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court, DC Mayor Muriel Bowser posed the question to voters, questioning, “What does it feel like to see people flaunt scientific evidence and common sense?”

During a press conference Monday morning, Bowser also referenced the large and mask-less event held weeks ago in the Rose Garden to celebrate Barrett’s nomination, which preceded a coronavirus outbreak that included President Trump and many of those in his orbit.

The mayor said many who attended the now-infamous event were “embarrassed” by their participation and explained she does not want to see DC residents and others from the surrounding areas put in a similar situation.

Bowser urged anyone who was considering attending Monday’s event to ask themselves how they will leave the situation if it is not safe, saying this is the consideration she makes when she goes out in public.

“For all you know you could be packed in a Rose Garden event with somebody sitting next to you hacking. Ask yourself – if that’s happening, are you going to get up and leave in the middle of the President’s remarks? If you’re not, you shouldn’t go,” Bowser said.

She then turned to the potentially dire consequences of attending a large gathering during the pandemic.

“You know, 642 people have died here,” Bowser said of Washington, DC. “So you can believe that you can go to the White House and get Covid and nothing is going to happen to you, perhaps. Or you could die from it.”

Some background: CNN reported Sunday that President Trump is expected to swear in Barrett at the White House at 9:00 p.m., according to a source familiar with the invitation.

White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows said Monday morning the White House would be “doing the best we can” to prevent an outbreak at the event, including “encouraging as much social distancing as possible” and testing “in and around those that are critical to the mission.”

As of Monday morning, the District had reported at least 16,812 positive cases of coronavirus.

President Trump touted Judge Amy Coney Barrett’s likely confirmation to the Supreme Court on Monday as a “big deal” and called on his Democratic rival Joe Biden to release a list of his potential Supreme Court nominees. 

After accusing Biden of wanting to pack the Supreme Court, Trump asked a crowd in Allentown, Pennsylvania what they thought of “Amy.”

He then said Biden should release a list of potential nominees, “because you can’t have radical left judges.” 

Vice President Mike Pence is taking precautions on the road after exposure to coronavirus from his chief of staff, Marc Short, as he insists on maintaining an aggressive campaign schedule in the final week of the race. 

Pence will not do any rope lines or greetings with supporters after his campaign speeches over the next few days and will simply leave after he makes remarks, a person familiar with the plans said. The vice president typically does between one and three local interviews in the battleground states that he visits, but will not be allowing any for the next few days as well.

He will travel with a “much more slimmed-down team” given that Short and three other aides have tested positive for the virus – his press secretary is quarantining and his communications director is at the end of her pregnancy.

Some background: Pence hit the road the day after Short tested positive for the virus, speaking in North Carolina amid criticism of the White House’s decision to deem him an “essential personnel” that does not need to quarantine despite the diagnosis of his close contact.

He was set to travel to Minnesota on Monday, after testing negative for the virus on both Sunday and Monday.

A close adviser to Pence, Marty Obst, tested positive for Covid-19 earlier last week after coming into contact with some of Pence’s team. Obst is not a government employee.

Although four aides in total have tested positive, the person familiar with the situation said, all but Short tested positive while quarantining after contact tracing was conducted in the wake of Obst’s diagnosis.

Dr. Jeffery Sachs discusses with CNN Brienna Keiler:

Supreme Court nominee Amy Coney Barrett, left, and Vice President Mike Pence walk through the Capitol on September 29.

Vice President Mike Pence is no longer expected to preside over the Senate’s vote to confirm Judge Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court following a coronavirus outbreak on his team.

Some background: At least five people in Vice President Mike Pence’s orbit have tested positive for coronavirus in recent days, including chief of staff Marc Short, close aide Zach Bauer and outside adviser Marty Obst, sources told CNN.

Pence and second lady Karen Pence were both tested for Covid-19 Monday morning, according to Pence’s office. Both tested negative.

A bipartisan group of attorneys general from more than 35 states and US territories issued a statement encouraging citizens to vote in a timely manner and warning people that violence is not an “acceptable response” to any election outcome.

“We condemn violence of any kind,” the attorneys general said in the statement. 

The attorneys general said they “will take seriously any allegation of election interference, including voter fraud, voter intimidation, and suppression.” 

Attorneys general from critical battleground states like North Carolina, Iowa, Maine, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Virginia and Wisconsin were part of the group that issued the statement. 

Here’s what the statement said:

“Across the country and under circumstances both familiar and uncharted, election officials are working to ensure that every eligible citizen can vote and that every vote is counted. America’s attorneys general are also working to ensure a free, fair, and secure election. As part of our duty to uphold the rule of law, we will take seriously any allegations of election interference, including voter fraud, voter intimidation, and suppression,” they said in the statement.

At least five people in Vice President Mike Pence’s orbit have tested positive for coronavirus in recent days, but his plans to visit South Carolina to campaign for Sen. Lindsey Graham are still on.

Harrison raised $57 million during the final full quarter of the campaign, shattering Senate fundraising records as his party seeks to wrest control of the chamber from Republicans.

Graham has not yet released his fundraising totals. But Harrison has outraised him consistently this year — prompting the three-term Republican to appear on Fox News recently to implore viewers to send in donations. “They’re killing me, moneywise,” he said.

Harrison said Pence’s visit could also be a concern for the health of South Carolinians who will attend the event, Harrison says.

“I was a guy who brought the plexiglas in my debate with Lindsey Graham because he had been exposed to several people who had Covid,” he said. “We’ve got to be much more responsible … We don’t want to do anything that jeopardizes the health of any person in this great state.”

His close contest with Graham shows the “people are anxious for hope,” Harrison says. “Lindsey Graham is trying to scare people to support him. I’m trying to inspire people to support me. That’s a very different contrast. And in the end, I think hope is going to beat fear.”

In the scenarios that he loses, he said he hopes for two things:

“One, I hope that Lindsey Graham will stop taking for granted the people here in the state. He represents South Carolina, not Washington, DC. And that means he need to focus on the issues that are important to the people in the state. And I hope I’ve pushed him to start doing just that. But second of all… I hope we’ve sparked a whole new generation of leaders in this state.”

President Trump took the stage in Allentown, Pennsylvania, at 11:19 a.m. ET. It’s been drizzling on and off all morning, but the rain has let up for the moment. 

It looks like at least half the crowd, if not more, are wearing masks. 

This is Trump’s first of three rallies today. His second rally at 1:30 p.m. ET is in Lititz, and his final one is at 4:30 p.m. ET in Martinsburg.

President Donald Trump departs the White House on October 21.

President Trump and his family plan to spend election night at the White House and are slated to make appearances at the nearby Trump Hotel, where a big party is being planned, according to people familiar with the matter.

Various other election night options had been weighed, including a celebration at Mar-a-Lago and other venues in Washington, including the Mellon Auditorium, where much of the Republican National Convention was programmed.

Mar-a-Lago still plans to hold an election night viewing party, but the President will remain in Washington.

For now, the plan is for the President to watch election returns from the White House residence before heading to the hotel at some point in the evening.

The Trump campaign has been emailing supporters for the past few days with an offer of tickets to an election night party “at (Trump’s) favorite hotel in Washington, DC.”

Trump himself is not playing a major role in planning the party, focused instead on his intensive campaign schedule leading up to the evening.

Past incumbents have adopted different approaches on election night. President Barack Obama claimed victory in 2012 from McCormick Place in Chicago, where his campaign was headquartered.

In 2004, President George W. Bush remained in Washington, delivering a victory speech at the Ronald Reagan building near the White House.

First lady Melania Trump attends a presidential debate in Nashville on October 22.

First Lady Melania Trump will make her first solo campaign appearance tomorrow in Atglen, Pennsylvania, a source familiar with her campaign schedule tells CNN. Trump will give remarks at a Make America Great event, with Kellyanne Conway. 

Trump has not made a campaign appearance on behalf of her husband since June 2019. 

Her last solo campaign speech was four years ago, also in Pennsylvania, five days before the 2016 election.

Oprah Winfrey will host a set of virtual town halls in key states ahead of Election Day as part of her network’s OWN YOUR VOTE nonpartisan voting initiative. 

According to a news release, the conversations are intended to “encourage, inspire and support voters across the country.”

Winfrey will be joined in the town halls by “local voters in each state, along with national thought leaders, voting rights experts and those who can provide resources and information for voters,” the release noted.

Here are the dates of the virtual town halls

• Oct. 26: Wisconsin 
• Oct. 27: North Carolina 
• Oct. 28: Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio and Pennsylvania
• Oct. 29: South Carolina 

The events are free and open to the public. They will take place at 8:00 p.m. ET each evening, according to the news release.

People in New York wait in line to vote at Madison Square Garden on October 24.

The New York City Board of Elections was not prepared for the nearly 200,000 people that turned out for early voting this weekend, Mayor Bill de Blasio said at a press conference. 

“Long lines discourage voting not encourage it,” de Blasio said. “The BOE was not prepared for this kind of turnout . We need this to be a better experience.”

Mayor de Blasio encourages the board of elections to increase the amount of voting machines available and to insure staff is available at early voting sites. 

“There are plenty of machines on hold for election day need to be brought out,” de Blasio said. 

If the board of elections doesn’t have the money to expand early voting resources the city will provide the resources, according to de Blasio. 

More than 60 million pre-election votes have been cast, and 33 states have surpassed their pre-election vote totals from 2016, according to data from CNN, Edison Research and Catalist. 

Twelve of CNN’s most competitively ranked states are among these states that have exceeded their total 2016 pre-election ballots cast.

They include: Georgia, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas and Wisconsin. 

On Sunday, the nation surpassed the 58.3 million total pre-election votes cast in 2016.

Texas, where more than 7.3 million voters have already cast ballots this year, is closest to reaching its total turnout from 2016. The Lonestar State’s pre-election turnout is currently almost 82% of the state’s total votes from 2016.

Detailed voter information comes from Catalist, a company that provides data, analytics and other services to Democrats, academics and nonprofit issue-advocacy organizations and is giving insights into who is voting before November.

Here is a look at 2020 pre-election votes cast so far by state:

People in New Braunfels, Texas, wait in line to vote on October 13.

More than 7.3 million people have cast their vote in Texas, including the first 13 days of early voting, according to data posted on the Texas Secretary of State website Monday morning.

That represents 43.33% of registered voters. In 2016 overall, 59.39% of registered voters voted. 

On Sunday, 133,653 people voted in person, bringing the total in-person votes to 6,507,422. Cumulative ballots-by-mail so far this cycle were 839,844.

The last day of early voting in Texas is Friday.

White House chief of staff Mark Meadows speaks with reporters on October 26 outside the White House.

There is concern in the Trump campaign after White House chief of staff Mark Meadows, in a stunning exchange with CNN’s Jake Tapper, said Sunday “We are not going to control the pandemic.”

A Trump campaign adviser said there is widespread frustration with Meadows over his comments.

“Everyone was clear that Meadows sh** the bed again,” the adviser said.

While Trump has dismissed rumors he’s planning to get rid of Meadows in a potential second term, he remains displeased with how his chief of staff handled the crisis surrounding his own bout with coronavirus, including telling reporters at Walter Reed the president’s symptoms were worrying as he was recovering from coronavirus. Even a few weeks later Trump remains upset that information was disclosed.

“Every time we build some momentum, Meadows f***s it up with an interview,” the adviser added.

The White House did not respond to CNN’s request for comment, but pressed on his own comments and subsequent criticism from the Biden campaign during a gaggle with on Monday morning, Meadows repeated himself.

“The only person waving a white flag, along with a white mask, is Joe Biden. I mean when we look at this, we’re going to defeat the virus. We’re not going to control it. We will try to contain it as best we can,” he said.

A separate adviser said it’s probably best that Meadows not do TV between now and the election, though Meadows suggested he would be making appearances on CBS and ABC’s morning shows on Tuesday.

The unforced error, made just nine days before the election, comes as Meadows has made it known among staffers that positive Covid-19 tests shouldn’t be disclosed publicly in the interest of avoiding the appearance of unmanaged contagion.

That strategy has mostly failed as the cases became public anyway through leaks.

The inability to keep a lid on things reflects Meadows’ diminished standing inside the building, according to multiple officials.

Many others in the building believe Meadows failed to communicate properly with staffers about the extent of the West Wing outbreak, leaving officials to glean for themselves who might be infected and whether they should quarantine. While Meadows has said he was doing so in the interest of privacy, the lack of guidance for days — while Meadows himself was spending nights with Trump at Walter Reed — angered many people.

CNN’s Kevin Liptak contributed to this report.

President Donald Trump boards Air Force One on October 26, prior to departure from Joint Base Andrews in Maryland.

President Trump is en route to Andrews Air Force Base for a three-stop blitz of battleground Pennsylvania on Monday.

Trump, sans mask, walked out of the White House at 9:29 a.m. ET, followed by an unidentified aide in a mask.

The President is scheduled to hold three campaign rallies today in Pennsylvania: one at 11 a.m. ET in Allentown, one at 1:30 p.m. ET in Lititz and one at 4:30 p.m. ET in Martinsburg.

Vice President Mike Pence speaks during a campaign event at Oakland County International Airport in Waterford Township, Michigan, on October 22.

Vice President Mike Pence and Second Lady Karen Pence both tested negative for Covid-19 Monday morning, according to Pence’s office.

Pence said on Friday that he would preside over the Senate’s vote to confirm Judge Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court today, though White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows cast some doubt on the plan this morning, saying it was “in flux,” but that he didn’t know if Pence would go to Capitol Hill.

Sen. Dick Durbin, foreground, and Sen. Chuck Schumer attend a news conference in front of the Capitol on October 22.

Top Senate Democrats, including Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and Democratic whip Dick Durbin, sent a letter to Vice President Mike Pence on Sunday demanding he reconsider his plan to preside over the Senate’s vote to confirm Judge Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court, saying it is “not a risk worth taking.”

“Not only would your presence in the Senate Chamber tomorrow be a clear violation of Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guidelines, it would also be a violation of common decency and courtesy,” they wrote, adding later “nothing about your presence in the Senate tomorrow can be considered essential.”

As of Monday morning, the Vice President’s plans are unclear.

Pence said on Friday he would preside over the vote and White House Director of Strategic Communications Alyssa Farah confirmed this Monday morning. Not long after that, White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows cast some doubt on the plan, saying it was “in flux,” but that he didn’t know if Pence would go to Capitol Hill.

Some context: At least five people in Pence’s inner circle have tested positive for coronavirus in recent days, including chief of staff Marc Short, close aide Zach Bauer and outside adviser Marty Obst, sources told CNN.

Mike Pence and second lady Karen Pence each tested negative for coronavirus on Monday morning, his office said. Despite contact with multiple people who recently tested positive, Pence is refusing to quarantine in defiance of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guidelines.

Georgia Sen. Kelly Loeffler waits for a television interview in Washington, DC, on March 20.

Georgia Sen. Kelly Loeffler has tested negative for Covid-19, her office announced in a release Saturday night.

The release said that the senator was tested “after learning that two of her DC Senate staffers had tested positive.”

The release added that Loeffler is still planning on participating in the confirmation vote for Supreme Court nominee Amy Coney Barrett on Monday before returning to Georgia.

It is unclear if contact tracing is underway with the staffers or if anyone else in the DC office has tested positive.

Loeffler was asked Sunday if she had “close contact” with her aides who tested positive for coronavirus.

“Not at all,” she replied. She did not provide any further details.

Supporters cheer as President Donald Trump arrives for a campaign rally in The Villages, Florida, on October 23.

Pre-Election Day voting is skyrocketing nationwide amid the ongoing coronavirus pandemic, and states are reporting record-breaking turnout as voters are energized to vote by mail or early in person before November.

Below is a look at the skyrocketing turnout in several key states that President Trump won by the narrowest of margins in 2016:

Florida: Trump won Florida by a little over one percentage point in 2016 and capturing the Sunshine State again this year is critical to his reelection prospects.

While Florida Democrats maintain an advantage in pre-election turnout, Catalist data shows the gap narrowing as more voters participate in early voting across the state.

Democrats now account for 43% of those early votes, while Republicans account for 36%. At this point in 2016, Republicans held a razor thin, approximately one-point lead in pre-election turnout.

This high turnout among Florida Democrats is reflected in recent polling about voter behavior in the Sunshine State.

New CNN polling conducted by SSRS shows about 35% of likely voters in Florida say they have already cast a ballot. Of that group, 71% say they back former Vice President Joe Biden and 27% back Trump. Fifty-six percent of those who have yet to cast a ballot say they back Trump, and 40% say they back Biden.

This is not predictive of ultimate outcome, however, as polling shows Democrats nationwide are more likely to cast their ballots before Election Day than Republicans.

North Carolina: North Carolina Democrats are also outpacing Republicans in their percentage of the pre-election votes, but once again, that margin is narrowing amid a surge in early voting in the Tar Heel State.

About 40% of the early votes that Catalist has analyzed comes from Democrats compared to 30% from Republicans so far. This is similar to the partisan breakdown of pre-election day votes at this point in 2016.

However, Republicans have narrowed the gap in their share of the early vote in recent weeks.

Pennsylvania: In Pennsylvania — a key state that Trump won by less than one percentage point in 2016 — Democrats continue to hold a significant advantage over Republicans in their share of ballots already cast, according to Catalist party data.

About 70% of pre-election votes have come from Democrats so far, compared to about 20% from Republicans.

Michigan: Michigan’s 16 electoral votes helped make Trump president four years ago when the state broke its six-election streak of voting for the Democratic presidential nominee.

Turnout in the Wolverine State this century peaked in 2008 with more than 5 million votes cast for president. A 2018 ballot measure changed Michigan’s rules to allow anyone to vote by mail without an excuse, and ballot returns this year are more than triple what they were at this time four years ago, according to Catalist data.

A look at those returns by race shows ballots from Black voters make up 12% of the current vote, up from 8% at this time in the 2016 cycle. Democrats are hoping to increase turnout among Black voters in areas like Detroit in their quest to bring Michigan back into the blue column.

Read more here.

There have been 3,171,202 early ballots accepted in North Carolina, according to the state Board of Elections. This means roughly 43% of all registered North Carolina voters have already cast a ballot.

With eight days until Election Day (and six days left in the early in-person voting period), the state has now exceeded the total number of early votes cast in 2016, which was 3,102,093.

Tomorrow is the last day a voter can request an absentee ballot in North Carolina. Early in-person voting runs through Saturday.

Here’s a 2020 breakdown:

• Absentee early in-person: 2,393,047
• Absentee by mail: 778,155

With only eight days left until Election Day, President Trump is scheduled to hold three campaign rallies today in the battleground state of Pennsylvania: one at 11 a.m. ET in Allentown, one at 1:30 p.m. ET in Lititz and one at 4:30 p.m. ET in Martinsburg.

Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden meanwhile is in Delaware with no public events scheduled. His running mate Kamala Harris is in Washington, DC, for the day and has an appearance on “The View” at 11 a.m. ET.

Even as Vice President Mike Pence’s chief of staff and others in his inner circle have tested positive for coronavirus, he continues to travel in the closing days of the campaign.

Pence, who tested negative for coronavirus on Sunday, will hold a rally today at 2 p.m. ET in Minnesota.

Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden attends a drive-in rally in Dallas, Pennsylvania, on October 24.

A new Muhlenberg College/Morning Call poll of likely Pennsylvania voters finds former Vice President Joe Biden at 51% to President Trump’s 44%.

The average Pennsylvania poll puts Biden up by a similar margin.

What’s the point: Almost every article I write on this election starts with a phrase resembling “Biden is the favorite.” A big reason why he has the upper hand can be seen in polls like the Muhlenberg College survey out of Pennsylvania.

When you look at the Electoral College maps, Biden simply has more pathways to 270 electoral votes than Trump does at this point. If Trump wants to win, he’ll need to win a number of states Biden has a lead in, including Pennsylvania.

Just take the states where Biden has an advantage of 5 points or greater right now. These include all the states Hillary Clinton won four years ago, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

If Biden wins all of those states, he gets to 278 electoral votes.

Now, if Biden were to fail to win in Pennsylvania, it’s pretty easy to draw him up another map where he gets to an Electoral College majority.

Let’s say he holds the Clinton states and takes Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin and Nebraska’s 2nd congressional district. Remember, Nebraska (like Maine) awards the winner in each of its congressional districts an electoral vote, and Biden is up greater than 5 points in the average of polls in the second district. Biden’s current average advantage in Arizona is 4 points.

This map gets Biden to exactly 270 electoral votes.

What’s key to note here is that Pennsylvania has tended to be Biden’s weakest of the Great Lake (Rust Belt) battlegrounds. It wouldn’t be shocking if he loses there but holds on to Michigan and Wisconsin.

Read the full analysis here.

build your own road to 270 electoral votes with CNN’s interactive map

Pre-election voting for the November election has surpassed all 2016 early ballots cast with more than a week still left until Election Day.

More than 58.7 million Americans have voted so far, according to a survey of election officials in all 50 states and Washington, DC, by CNN, Edison Research and Catalist.

In 2016, around 58.3 million pre-election ballots were cast, including ballots in the three vote-by-mail states that year, according to a CNN analysis. That early vote accounted for about 42% of all ballots cast in the 2016 presidential election.

Pre-Election Day voting is skyrocketing nationwide during the ongoing coronavirus pandemic, and states are reporting record-breaking turnout as voters are energized to vote by mail or early in person before November.

Detailed voter information comes from Catalist, a company that provides data, analytics and other services to Democrats, academics and nonprofit issue-advocacy organizations and is giving insights into who is voting before November.

Fifty-four percent of those 58.7 million votes already cast this cycle comes from CNN’s 16 most competitively ranked states, which will play a crucial role in determining who wins the presidency this year.

Among those states, Minnesota has currently seen the largest percentage increase in early voting turnout compared to last cycle, according to Catalist data from both years in 14 key states.

By age, younger voters (age 18-29) are also casting significantly more ballots and make up a greater share of the pre-Election Day vote than they did around the same time four years ago in all of the key states with information available.

Read more here.

CNN’s Kristen Holmes reports:

President Donald Trump, right, and Democratic candidate Joe Biden debate each other in Nashville, Tennessee, on October 22. At center is moderator Kristen Welker.

Election night can be synonymous with unpredictability — just look at 2016 — but this year might be even murkier than usual.

The pandemic has changed the way millions of Americans vote for president. Voters have already cast an unprecedented number of mail-in ballots, for example. In many locations — some of them potential battleground states — mail-in ballots will not be counted until after the election, potentially leading to long delays in the news media’s ability to call the election on election night.

That’s why many news outlets are already going into rehearsal mode behind the scenes as they continue to cover ongoing election and voting news. The Associated Press, for instance, performs drills to prepare.

“We obviously do an enormous amount of preparation. We work through various scenarios,” Sally Buzbee, senior vice president and executive editor of The Associated Press, told CNN’s chief media correspondent Brian Stelter on “Reliable Sources” on Sunday.

“We are very much prepared for the fact that it could go longer than election night,” Buzbee said. “It also could last until the next morning or until the next afternoon or even later. So we are very much prepared for both scenarios.”

Many news organizations rely on the Associated Press to make calls on Election Day, waiting until the AP announces a winner before declaring it on air on or online.

President Trump has said he wants immediate results on election night, but that’s not necessarily realistic. Senior Department of Homeland Security officials have urged voters to be patient, warning that the results may not be known on Election Day this year.

Americans around the country will be tuning in to their network of choice, but Buzbee made it clear that news outlets aren’t in competition with each other on election night. She added that the data and the facts are driving decisions on election night.

“This is not magic,” she said. “This is actually math and facts and science. That’s how races are called.”