The House is expected to vote sometime around 5 p.m. or 5:30 p.m. ET today to pass a resolution to terminate President Trump’s national emergency declaration. The resolution will likely pass.
House GOP aides right now estimate they will lose somewhere between 10 and 15 Republicans on the vote.
Where it goes after it passes: The resolution will then be sent to the Senate, starting an 18-day clock. Senate GOP aides fully expect the resolution to pass when it is brought to the floor.
These GOP senators plan to support the measure: As of now, Republican Sen. Susan Collins, Thom Tillis and Lisa Murkowski have publicly announced they will vote in favor of the resolution. Aides estimate another three to five Republican senators are seriously considering voting for the resolution. GOP leadership is not pressuring Collins, Tillis or senators like Cory Gardner, Martha McSally or Joni Ernst on this vote – they are all in cycle and if they view the vote as helpful politically, they will join the Democrats.
As CNN has previously reported, the Trump administration has ramped up its efforts in both the House and Senate to keep defections low. It is, by all accounts, working. The way it is being presented, according to aides, is as a binary choice – either you vote with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi or vote with Trump.
In other words, It’s being framed as no longer about ideological or constitutional concerns, or fears of setting a precedent for a future Democratic president. It’s about partisan concerns and not giving Democrats ammunition. Trump remains extremely popular in most GOP held states.
“It is a very persuasive argument,” was how one senior GOP aide put it.