The latest on infrastructure negotiations in Congress

With just one month to go until a pivotal UN climate change conference in Glasgow, President Biden's climate agenda is on the line.

The fate of Biden's ambitious climate promises is wrapped up in a large budget bill that's stalling in Congress, as moderates and progressives in Biden's own party disagree on what's needed.

These negotiations are happening at a critical time: in April, Biden promised the US would slash its carbon emissions in half below 2005 levels by the end of the decade, and the clock is ticking.

For months, Biden's climate envoy John Kerry has been traveling the world, pressuring other countries to raise their climate ambitions and decarbonize faster. That won't carry any weight unless the US does the same, lawmakers say.

A White House spokesperson told CNN that tackling climate change is a "top priority" for Biden, and the administration "is using all the tools in our tool chest to solve it. Full stop."

The White House will release a national climate strategy later this year, an administration official confirmed.

Biden's top domestic climate adviser Gina McCarthy "believes that's a viable path, and I've expressed my view that without the investments, particularly the tax code support for clean power and clean transportation, I think it's really tough to get there," Center for American Progress founder and Obama climate adviser John Podesta told CNN.

If the White House does have a Plan B to meet their climate goals if reconciliation fails, Democratic lawmakers haven't seen it – and they're skeptical it can actually be done. Several Democratic lawmakers told CNN they haven't been briefed on how the White House could slash US emissions without major investment in clean energy by Congress.

President Biden was greeted by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer and House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn before heading to the House Democratic Caucus meeting.

Biden did not respond to shouted questions from CNN on whether he was hopeful Democrats would reach a deal today.

The meeting is closed to press. No cell phones will be permitted in an effort to limit leaks.

President Biden is on Capitol Hill to meet with House Democrats as congressional Democratic leaders scramble to secure a last-minute deal on a major economic package and find a way to resolve divisions between moderates and progressives that have put passage of the package and a separate bipartisan infrastructure bill in jeopardy.

Biden is currently scheduled to meet with House Democrats at 3:30 p.m. ET, according to a source familiar with his plans. No cell phones will be permitted in an effort to limit leaks.

White House press secretary Jen Psaki told reporters Friday that he will travel to the Hill "to make the case for his legislative agenda, which includes the infrastructure bill, and it includes his Built Back Better agenda that would be in the reconciliation package.

The President “wants to speak directly to members, answer their questions, and make the case for why we should all work together to give the American people more breathing room," she said.

The high-stakes visit to the Hill by the President comes as some Democrats have been calling for Biden to play a more active role in the process.

Democratic Rep. Steve Cohen of Tennessee said on Friday, "I think the President should be involved," and said "very few of us have seen the President in nine months he's been President. And I think he should come to a caucus."

Read more about today's meeting here.

The White House defended President Biden in his last-ditch effort to appeal to House Democrats to come together, amid criticism that he got involved in discussions on his agenda too late in the game.

CNN previously reported Rep. Pramila Jayapal, the head of the progressive caucus, told reporters she would have preferred that Biden got involved “sooner.”

“We're clearly at the late stages of the process here. This is exactly the moment where people put their bottom lines down, they put their best ideas forward, and there's heavy negotiating and that's exactly what's happening. And that's why timelines can help make progress," she continued.

President Biden will travel to Capitol Hill shortly “to make the case for his legislative agenda, which includes the infrastructure bill, and it includes his Built Back Better agenda that would be in the reconciliation package,” White House press secretary Jen Psaki told reporters Friday.

The President “wants to speak directly to members, answer their questions, and make the case for why we should all work together to give the American people more breathing room," she said.

When asked if the President expects to leave Capitol Hill today with a consensus on voting today for the administration’s infrastructure bill, Psaki declined to make a prediction.

More on Biden's meeting: The President is expected to address members of the House Democratic Caucus in a closed-press meeting at 3:30 p.m. ET today, as progressives have vowed to withhold a vote on the infrastructure package until the Senate moves forward on the President’s spending package.

“He’s visiting the Democratic Caucus, and as you all know, and as the Speaker's office will confirm for all of you, they make those rules we don't make those rules and those are closed press meetings,” Psaki added, “But obviously, there'll be a press pool with him. In terms of whether he'll address the public or speak to all of you—we’ll see, we're quite open, and he is—we’ll make decisions hour by hour.”

As President Biden heads to Capitol Hill to lobby House Democrats this afternoon, he may lean on strategic ambiguity to bridge the gap between the party’s moderate and progressive factions. That’s possible because of different ways of accounting for different elements of any final plan.

One question, for example, is whether or not tax-cuts get classified as “spending.” All week negotiators have been working on a potential compromise that involves more than $2 trillion worth of initiatives but less than $2 trillion in “net outlays” after accounting for spending and tax cuts.

This could resemble the different ways of describing the Trump tax cuts. The Congressional Budget Office calculated they would increase the budget deficit by $1.9 trillion over 10 years, which became how their magnitude was most commonly described in Washington debates.

That 2017 legislation cut various individual and corporate tax collections much more than that, but a large portion of those cuts was offset by revenue raised from other changes in the tax code.

While infrastructure negotiations continue on Capitol Hill, another major issue looms: the debt ceiling. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has said the US government will run out of money Oct.18, when it will hit the borrowing ceiling set by Congress.

Senior White House officials explored whether the US could unilaterally continue payments should the debt ceiling be breached in mid-October but ultimately concluded it would not be possible to avoid default and economic catastrophe, a person with direct knowledge of the matter told CNN. 

The conclusion came as part of a review, first reported by the Washington Post, of potential options the administration may have as the US barrels toward an Oct. 18 debt ceiling deadline with no clear idea of how Congress will reconcile how to avoid the first default in US history. 

White House officials conducted the review as diligence to map out or test the viability any potential contingencies or theories as Republicans have continued to block Democratic efforts to suspend the debt limit, the person said. Among the theories explored, but dismissed as unworkable either due to legal, political or economic hang ups, was whether there were constitutional grounds to continue payments, as well as the idea of minting a trillion dollar coin, the person said. 

The review itself is not out of the ordinary. During the Obama administration, officials reviewed whether alternatives were available to congressional action to raise the debt ceiling during high stakes showdowns between Democrats and Republicans. They ultimately concluded alternatives would not be viable. 

The White House has concluded the same. 

It’s a reality that only serves to underscore the heightened risk facing financial markets and the US economy in this moment. 

Senate Republicans have blocked all Democratic efforts to move forward on a debt ceiling suspension up this point, pressing Democrats to move through the budget reconciliation process to get the job done. The process itself is likely to take at least two weeks, creating an increased level of urgency for lawmakers as the calendar moves toward the deadline 

Yet Sen. Mitch McConnell staked out an unyielding position of opposition in July and, driven by a combination of not wanting to give GOP votes to the increase and embracing the ability to slow or create chaos at the same time Democrats are straining to pass their domestic agenda, has received unified back up from the members of his conference. 

Democrats have tried multiple avenues to force McConnell to yield, though up to this point have not broken through. Another vote on a stand-alone suspension of the debt limit, which the House passed this week, is scheduled for next week. 

Read more here.

House Democratic Caucus Chair Hakeem Jeffries told reporters today that he believes the bipartisan infrastructure bill will pass today, and that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has committed to holding the vote. 

Asked how this was possible, since there is still no agreement on the larger bill that progressives are holding out for, Jeffries was optimistic that they would hear about further progress from the Senate negotiators soon. 

“I'm hopeful that we'll get some clarity within the next hour or so from the Senate, as it relates to what they view as possible, so we can decide what is acceptable,” he told reporters.  

The Senate passed a massive, $1.2 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill in August and now the House needs to vote on it before it goes to President Biden's desk to be signed into law.

The path to get to a final vote still remains uncertain. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Democratic leaders are working to build support and get enough votes for the bill as progressives threaten to tank it they don't strike a deal with moderates on a separate sweeping spending package.

Here's what the infrastructure bill would fund:

Read more about what is in the bill here.