The head of ISIS, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi may be dead. ISIS, however, is far from finished. It operates in West Africa, Libya, Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula, Afghanistan and the Philippines, and has followers in Europe and elsewhere. That in addition to, according to a report issued by the Pentagon’s Inspector General in August, between 14,000 and 18,000 fighters between Syria and Iraq.
Baghdadi was a secretive leader, making only one public appearance, in July 2014, when he delivered a sermon in Mosul’s Grand Mosque. During the years when ISIS’ fortune turned, when the group lost control of the cities of Tikrit, Falluja, Ramadi and Mosul in Iraq, and eventually its de facto capital in Syria in autumn 2017, he remained silent. It was only after the fall of ISIS’ last stronghold in eastern Syria did he finally release an audio statement.
Among the dozens of ISIS fighters and their wives and children we interviewed this spring during the battle of Baghouz, the group’s last stronghold, few mentioned the name of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. The diehards, the ones who still remained loyal to the ideology of ISIS, stressed their allegiance to ad-Dawla al-Islamiya – the Islamic State, not to its leader.
Baghdadi never had a cult of personality. He did stress that he was a descendant of the Prophet Mohammed to burnish his Islamic credentials, but he never rose to the level of al Qaeda’s Osama bin Laden, who was recognizable the world over. Bin Laden first came to fame during the 1980s, when he led the so-called Arab Mujahedeen in the war against the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan. In the 1990s he gave interviews to the western media, including CNN, and even after the 9/11 attacks on the United States he issued statements and put out videos.
As khalifa, or caliph, of the Islamic State, he never granted an interview to anyone.
ISIS, the organization, excelled at spreading its message through social media, but even there Baghdadi’s profile was low. For example, in issue 15 of Dabiq (July 2016), one of ISIS’ online publications, he is only mentioned once.
Baghdadi’s possible elimination is a blow to ISIS, yet not a fatal one.