November 15, 2022 Russia-Ukraine news

The future of the vital Black Sea grain deal depends on existing terms being met, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Tuesday.

The agreement guarantees safe passage for ships carrying grain exports from Ukraine, which are key to global food supplies, but is due to expire at the end of this month.

The first term, Lavrov said, is “the export of Ukrainian grain and it is taking place after the Ukrainian Armed Forces used the humanitarian corridor for grain exports for military means.” 

Russia withdrew from the deal at the end of October, citing drone attacks on the city of Sevastopol in occupied Crimea as the reason for its withdrawal from the deal.

Russia blamed Ukraine for the Sevastopol attacks. Ukraine has not confirmed that its forces attacked the city.

“We suspended this operation, but then Ukrainians confirmed that they won't do this again. So, our Turkish colleagues and Western colleagues understand that they need to stop Ukraine from doing these things,” Lavrov said.  

The second term, according to Lavrov, is to “remove barriers to the export of Russian grain.”

Lavrov praised United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, who he said was doing “all he can.” 

“But, it has been five months now and no real results have been achieved," said Lavrov. “This isn't about promises. We need to see some action.”

“The Secretary General of the UN assures us citing his Western colleagues that all the economic operators that are securing the logistical chains of fertilizer and grain supplies from Russia are assuring him that no sanctions will be imposed on the implementation of trade agreements for our grain, including the entry of Russian ships into European ports, and the entry of foreign ships into our ports,” said Lavrov. 

Lavrov said that he hopes that the UN will keep its promises, especially since Guterres himself “said it is a matter of principle,” according to Lavrov.

Some background: The agreement put in place a procedure that guaranteed the safety of ships carrying Ukrainian grain, fertilizer and other food stuff through a humanitarian corridor in the Black Sea.

Under the deal, all vessels coming to and from Ukraine’s ports were inspected and monitored by international teams made up of officials from Russia, Ukraine, Turkey and the UN.

The West and its allies have provoked Russia's actions in Ukraine, and not vice versa, said Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, using a familiar justification for Moscow's invasion.

"And it is not aggression, it is [an] operation to defend the legitimate interests of Russian security because of threats on Russia's borders and to defend the Russian population in Donbas," he added, using one of the Kremlin's common propaganda lines.

Lavrov also accused NATO and the European Union of interfering in the war in Ukraine.

"I believe NATO and the European Union have long been participants in a hybrid war in Ukraine, hybrid conflict with their arms supplies and training servicemen, and helping with a large amount of intelligence, helping with targeting," he said.

Despite speaking out against the West, Lavrov also told reporters that he had spoken to France's President Emmanuel Macron, claiming that the French leader told Lavrov he wanted to keep talking to the Russian president.

“I spoke to President Macron and he confirmed his intention to continue contacts with President (Vladimir) Putin, to look for agreements that will allow a settlement to the situation,” said Lavrov. 

“I reminded him, as I said, that all the problems are on the Ukrainian side, because of their categorical refusal of any negotiations," he added. "They are putting forward conditions that are clearly unrealistic and inconsistent with the situation.”

In October, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky signed a decree formally ruling out the possibility of negotiations with Putin. It was dated the day that Putin announced he would annex Kherson, Zaporizhzhia and the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics — in violation of international law.

Last week, however, Zelensky told CNN’s Chief International Anchor Christiane Amanpour he had not completely ruled out peace negotiations with his counterpart in Moscow.

“I haven’t closed the door. I said we would be ready to talk to Russia — but with a different Russia. One that is truly ready for peace. One that is ready to recognize that they are occupiers … They need to return everything. Land, rights, freedom, money. And most importantly, justice.

“And so far, I haven’t heard statements like that from the Russian Federation — either from Putin or from anyone else.”

Russia must “undergo political transformation” and "cannot continue existence in its current form," a Ukrainian presidential adviser has said.

“No need to be afraid of the truth,” Mykhailo Podolyak said on Twitter Tuesday.

In October, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky signed a decree formally ruling out the possibility of negotiations with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin. 

Speaking with CNN’s Christiane Amanpour last week, Zelensky said that “other than ultimatums, I’ve not heard anything from the current president of the Russian Federation.”

“But I haven’t closed the door. I said we would be ready to talk to Russia – but with a different Russia. One that is truly ready for peace. One that is ready to recognize that they are occupiers ... They need to return everything. Land, rights, freedom, money. And most importantly, justice.”

Ukraine's post office will resume facilitating the payment of state pensions in the formerly Russian-occupied city of Kherson, the head of the organization said on Tuesday.

The announcement was made by post office director Igor Smelyanskiy on Facebook.

In the last week of October CNN spoke to a man still living in the city who said Russia was withdrawing facilities for services like pensions and passports as Moscow prepared to leave Kherson.

Then Ukrainian forces swept into Kherson on Friday as Russian troops retreated to the east, delivering a major victory to Kyiv and marking one of the biggest setbacks for Russian President Vladimir Putin since his invasion began.

Russian-occupied Melitopol was rocked by a large explosion Tuesday morning, according to the exiled mayor of the southern Ukrainian city.

Fedorov is not in Melitopol but has been a regular conduit for information from the city, which has come under increasing Ukrainian attack in recent weeks.

Some context: In a Telegram post on Sunday, Fedorov said Russian forces had turned Melitopol into a "huge military base" while under their occupation, which began in the early days of the war.

Columns of Russian forces have been arriving in Melitopol from the neighboring Kherson region to the west, and from other parts of Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia region to the north, he said. “The Russian military is settling in local houses they seized, schools and kindergartens. Military equipment is stationed in residential areas,” he said. 

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky proposed an “all for all” prisoner swap with Russia during his virtual address to the G20 leaders in Bali on Tuesday, according to a transcript of his remarks shared by the Embassy of Ukraine in Indonesia.

Ukraine's peace plan: The prisoner swap proposal is one of 10 areas outlined by Zelensky during his speech Tuesday on a path to end the war. They are:

President Volodymyr Zelensky presented a 10-point peace plan to end Russia's invasion of Ukraine in a video speech to G20 leaders in Bali on Tuesday, according to a transcript shared by the Embassy of Ukraine in Indonesia.

The steps includes a path to nuclear safety, food security, a special tribunal for alleged Russian war crimes, and a final peace treaty with Moscow, according to a transcript of the speech.

He also urged G20 leaders to use all their power to “make Russia abandon nuclear threats” and implement a price cap on energy imported from Moscow.

Foundation for victory: In the address, Zelensky compared the recent liberation of the southern Ukrainian city of Kherson to the battles leading to the Allied defeat of Germany in World War II.

Zelensky also called on Russia to stop bombing Ukraine’s energy infrastructure as winter approaches. “Let Russia prove by its rejection of terror that it is really interested in the restoration of peace,” he said.

Moscow has been isolated at this year’s G20 summit as multiple Western leaders vowed not to have any contact with its Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, who is in attendance on behalf of the Kremlin. 

Chinese leader Xi Jinping reiterated Beijing's stance that peace talks should be held to end the war in Ukraine during the G20 summit in Bali on Tuesday, according to state media, though he once again stopped short of condemning Russia's actions.

Some context: Although China has consistently called for an end to hostilities in Ukraine, it has refused to condemn Russia's invasion. Instead, Beijing has called for the "legitimate security concerns of all parties" to be recognized, while blaming the US and NATO for the conflict.

Beijing and Moscow have become close partners in recent years as both face tensions with the West, with Xi and Russian President Vladimir Putin declaring the two countries had a "no-limits" partnership weeks before Russia's invasion began

So far, Beijing has not provided direct military or financial aid to Moscow that could spark sanctions from Washington. Meanwhile, Chinese state media has previously reported on Xi’s support for international peace talks as a mechanism for ending the war. 

In September, Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Wang Wenbin called on the “relevant parties” in Ukraine to “achieve a ceasefire through dialogue and negotiation.”

President Joe Biden is confronting competing issues at home and abroad while he’s at the Group of 20 Summit in Bali this week, using the moment on the world’s stage to lean into international support for condemning Russia’s aggression while also facing the prospect of hearing Donald Trump announce his next run for the presidency.

Administration officials previewing Biden’s G20 summit activities have their sights set on the coalition’s efforts to voice its opposition against the war in Ukraine, which could send a powerful signal amongst a group that’s so far had fragmented approaches to the Kremlin’s aggression.

Such an expression of condemnation has been the work of months of diplomacy between G20 leaders. However, it’s not clear yet exactly which countries will sign onto the declaration.

Although the G20 is comprised of world powers who have long backed Ukraine during the war, it also includes other nations that have been tepid in their response to Russia’s aggression — including India, China, Saudi Arabia and Indonesia, the host of this year’s summit. The coalition, which is broadly focused on the global economy, also includes Russia itself. But Russian President Vladimir Putin is not making an appearance at the summit this year.

Since the spring, US officials have anticipated a showdown at this year’s G20 over the war. Biden has stated Russia should no longer be a member of the bloc, though expelling Moscow would require support from all of the G20’s members.

As of now, no official “family photo” is listed on a schedule, a sign of the deep acrimony within the G20 spurred by the war in Ukraine.

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