May 12, 2023 Russia-Ukraine news

Ukraine and Russia are “moving towards” an agreement on extending the United Nations-brokered Black Sea Grain Initiative, Turkey's Defense Ministry said in a statement Friday. 

The current deal, which enables the safe export of Ukrainian grain through the countries' Black Sea ports, was renewed for 60 days in March and is set to expire on May 18.

“The Black Sea agreement which was signed with the help of Turkey has allowed more than 30 million tons of grain to be exported to countries that need it,” the Turkish Defense Ministry statement added.

China’s special representative of Eurasian affairs Li Hui will visit Ukraine next week to “promote peace talks,” China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs confirmed Friday. 

Li’s trip will begin on May 15, and he will travel to Ukraine, Poland, France, Germany and Russia during the tour. 

The visit comes after Chinese leader Xi Jinping spoke with his his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky by phone last month for the first time since Russia's invasion began last year.

China has repeatedly attempted to portray itself as a peacemaker in the conflict, but Western countries have viewed Beijing’s intentions with deep suspicion as it forges deepening ties with Moscow.

Ukrainian forces have been able to push the Russians back 2 kilometers (1.2 miles) around the eastern city of Bakhmut over the past week, the country's deputy defense minister said Friday.

“The enemy failed to realize its plans; the enemy suffered heavy losses in manpower; our defenders advanced 2 km in the Bakhmut direction,” said Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar in a Telegram post.

Bakhmut is the site of a months-long assault by Russian forces, including Wagner mercenaries, that has driven thousands from their homes and left the area devastated. But despite the vast amounts of manpower Russia has poured into capturing the city, they have been unable to take total control, and this week suffered heavy losses in the area.

CNN had previously reported Ukrainian counterattacks and advances in the flanks of Bakhmut as it tries to defend the fiercely contested battlefront. Overnight, the Russian Defense Ministry pushed back against reports Ukraine had broken through their lines in the area. 

Yevgeny Prigozhin on Friday invited Russia's defense minister to visit the embattled eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut to assess the situation there — the latest provocative statement by the Wagner chief on the Kremlin's war leadership.

Prigozhin has ramped up complaints about his own mercenary fighters' battlefield setbacks, and blamed a lack of ammunition to take Bakhmut on the Russian Ministry of Defense, pointing at Shoigu and Russian army chief Gen. Valeri Gerasimov.

The private military company boss has in recent days also complained again that areas captured by his fighters around Bakhmut at the expense of heavy casualties are now being lost to the Ukrainians. 

At least two people were killed and more than a dozen others wounded overnight after Russian forces shelled parts of Ukraine near the front lines of the war, officials said.

In southern Kherson, at least one person died and four others were injured following more than 80 Russian attacks within the past day, the region's military chief, Oleksandr Prokudin, said in a Telegram post.

Residential areas, school buildings, hospitals, and two "critical infrastructure enterprises" were hit in Kherson, he said. 

In the eastern Donetsk region, at least one person was killed on Thursday in the city of Sloviansk by Russian shelling,  Pavlo Kyrylenko, head of the Donetsk region administration, said on Telegram Friday. Twelve others were injured, he added. 

Donald Trump's refusal to say whether he wants President Volodymyr Zelensky to win the war after Russia’s unprovoked invasion — along with his absurd claim that he could end the conflict in 24 hours — escalated the prospect that Ukraine’s destiny will rest in the hands of US voters next year.

The Republican frontrunner’s comments, in a CNN town hall meeting in New Hampshire, was the latest sign that the politics of the war in the US could become more strained as the 2024 campaign ramps up, creating new pressure on Zelensky’s coming offensive to deliver a decisive blow in the second year of the conflict.

The prospect of a Trump return to office could also offer an incentive to Russian President Vladimir Putin to prolong a war that is exacting a terrible civilian toll and racking up huge Russian casualties in the hope he could exploit any decrease in the multi-billion dollar US aid flow to Ukraine.

And Trump’s decision to insert himself squarely into the debate reflects deepening political calculations for several key players in the war. That includes both President Joe Biden, who staked his legacy as a defender of democratic principles in the US and abroad on Ukraine’s survival, and Putin, who presided over a scaled-down Victory Day parade in Moscow this week after failing in his war aim of crushing Ukraine’s sovereignty.

Battlefield developments could dictate the course of the war long before the November 2024 election. And making equivocal judgments about any comments the ex-president makes is risky, since he often seems to live day-by-day and minute-by-minute rather than following months-long strategic blueprints.

Nevertheless, Trump’s unwillingness to refer to Putin as a war criminal despite evidence of Russian atrocities in Ukraine and an International Criminal Court warrant for his arrest renewed intrigue over the ex-president’s motives in repeatedly genuflecting to the Kremlin strongman.

Read the full analysis here.

Russia's military shelled several towns and villages in the Zaporizhzhia region, injuring civilians and damaging property, according to the Ukrainian official leading the regional military administration there.

Meanwhile, the Russians have claimed they are eliminating deployment points of the Ukrainian military. Indirect fire in the region has intensified ahead of what observers expect to be a Ukrainian counteroffensive.

Here are other key headlines to know:

Ukrainian forces have begun “shaping” operations in advance of a highly-anticipated counteroffensive against Russian forces, a senior US military official and senior Western official tell CNN.

Shaping involves striking targets such as weapons depots, command centers and armor and artillery systems to prepare the battlefield for advancing forces. It's a standard tactic made prior to major combined operations.

When Ukraine launched a counteroffensive late last summer in the southern and northeastern parts of the country, it was similarly preceded by air attacks to shape the battlefield. These shaping operations could continue for many days before the bulk of any planned Ukrainian offensive, according to the senior US military official.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said his country still needs “a bit more time” before it launches the counteroffensive, in order to allow some more of the promised Western military aid to arrive in the country.

Among the supplies Ukraine is still waiting for are armored vehicles — including tanks —which Zelensky said were “arriving in batches.”

Shaping operations can also be designed to confuse the enemy. 

Last summer, Kharkiv had very little in the way of softening up; it was a lightning ground offensive. Most of the shaping came in Kherson, through long-range attacks on bridges, ammo stores and command centers. Most of these were carried out by HIMARS. There were some, but not many, airstrikes.

CNN's Tim Lister contributed reporting.

In an unusual late-night post on its Telegram channel, the Russian Ministry of Defense has pushed back on claims that Ukrainian forces broke through parts of the front line around the eastern city of Bakhmut.

At least two Russian military bloggers have reported a deteriorating situation for Russian forces around the city, where a battle of attrition has been grinding on for months.

The defense ministry said Russian assault units are making progress in the western part of Bakhmut with air and artillery support. It said troops are battling to repel Ukrainian troops "in the direction of Maloilyinovka" — apparently a reference to a village in the Bakhmut area.

“The enemy suffers significant losses in manpower and hardware,” the defense officials claimed.

What Ukraine says: A report from the Ukrainian military's General Staff Thursday described a "dynamic" situation in Bakhmut, claiming Kyiv's forces are heaping pressure on Russian fighters and probing weak spots in their lines.

A Ukrainian military officer said Ukraine is on the offensive in Bakhmut this week after months of defense. Kyiv has reported "effective counterattacks" around the eastern city despite constant Russian bombardment.