Russia will likely not be able to mount a “significant offensive operation this year” due to munitions and manpower shortages — whether or not the Ukrainian counteroffensive is successful, according to Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines.
“In fact, if Russia does not initiate a mandatory mobilization and secure substantial third-party ammunition supplies beyond existing deliveries from Iran and others, it will be increasingly challenging for them to sustain even modest offensive operations,” Haines testified to the Senate Armed Services Committee.
Putin “probably” has scaled back his near-term ambitions in Ukraine to consider a victory “to consolidate control of the occupied territory in eastern and southern Ukraine, and ensuring that Ukraine will never become a NATO ally,” Haines added.
Despite this assessment, Haines said it wasn't very likely that Russia negotiates a pause this year unless political factors "alter his thinking."
Haines also noted that Russian forces are preparing “new defensive positions” for the Ukrainian counteroffensive, and have “gained less territory in April than during any of the three previous months.”
Here's where the state of Russian control in Ukrainian territory stands: