The current, second quarter of this year will be an ugly one for the economy -- and for the history books.
US gross domestic product is expected to collapse by up to 40% on an annualized basis between April and June.
While economists forecast a recovery in the second half of this year, that steep decline is will drag down the full-year GDP.
Economists at Bank of America Merrill Lynch expect a decline of 8% for the GDP this year, which would put the drop from peak growth to the trough at 13%.
This breaks the previously held post-war record of -4% in the Great Recession," said the analysts, led by chief US economist Michelle Meyer.
Bank of America is thinking about the coronavirus recession in three phases.
- The lockdown that halted economic activity.
- The reopening that leads to a sharp rebound in GDP growth, consumer spending and employment numbers.
- Then a longer and slowed recovery, driven by a second wave of Covid-19 infections.
We now think it will take until the end of 2022, or later, to return to the pre-COVID level of GDP," Meyer & Co. said.