The Imperial Dragon
China's Jiang Zemin has dreams of becoming as immortal as Mao.
World trade is a first step
By TERRY MCCARTHY/HONG KONG
November 22, 1999
Web posted at: 1:25 p.m. EST (1825 GMT)
To be president of China's 1.3 billion people is already a
management proposition from hell. But to become Emperor of China
requires a mystical aura of power that can move mountains,
change the weather and, these days at least, deal with pesky
foreigners who want into your telecommunications market.
Last week President Jiang Zemin made a grab for imperial status
by inking a World Trade Organization deal with the U.S. that will
open China to free international trade for the first time in
history. Along the way, 73-year-old Jiang had to move mountains
of conservative opposition at home, change the atmospherics
between Beijing and Washington, and, yes, deal with 100 million
tangled telephone lines. By any measure, it was a monumental deal
for China. But for Jiang it was even more--a bid to boost his
reputation from that of polished technocrat to the more mythical
status of ideological leader. Mao Zedong, Deng Xiaoping--theirs is
the kind of status Jiang is bidding for.
Jiang played his WTO hand brilliantly, waiting for U.S. President
Bill Clinton to call him--twice--before putting his weight behind
the deal. Says Hong Kong-based Fred Hu, Goldman Sachs' chief
China watcher: "That's called the Emperor mentality--you kowtow to
me first."
And kowtow the U.S. did. The American negotiators obligingly
traveled to Beijing, where Jiang kept his distance from the
talks, sending in Premier Zhu Rongji to thrash out the details.
Once the pact was signed, however, Jiang elbowed Zhu aside. "The
photo op was Jiang's," says Charlene Barshefsky, the U.S. Trade
Representative, who led the American team.
It was a classic Jiang moment--casual, charming, energizing. He
is, after all, a man who can recite from memory sections of the
Gettysburg Address--in English. His training as an engineer has
given him a reverence for technology and a fluency with the idea
of an information economy that make him an ideal leader for a
Net-ready nation. And his instincts have always been behind Zhu's
economic-reform program, despite opposition from conservative
heavyweights in the party. Even today he relies on the advice of
his American-educated son Jiang Mianheng.
Yet, as perfect as the moment seemed, it wasn't quite at the
imperial level that Jiang aspires to. Even in Beijing, where the
WTO celebration was as choreographed as the first act of Cats,
the zip and pop of a truly great moment was missing. Ordinary
citizens weren't glued to their television sets. And the
triumphal speech to his fellow Chinese--the grand gesture or
unforgettable sound bite that would lock in the historic
moment--never occurred. But such policy blahs don't mean that
Jiang won't one day pull off that kind of Maoist dazzle, for he's
clearly driven by an ambition to be as imperial as he can be.
They're just a sign that in rapidly changing China, Jiang is
still not ready to put on the crown. In the country's long
tradition, an Emperor needs to inspire awe, tinged with a dash of
fear, in his subjects. In a less-than-terrifying display of
chumminess, Jiang celebrated his WTO coup by taking Barshefsky to
a private swan viewing.
Partly this was the act of a masterly politician. Jiang's
amiability reflects a man working hard to avoid offending anyone.
It's a kind of sensitivity few Emperors would exhibit, but it is
probably tied to the fact that Jiang isn't ruling 15th century
China. He's ruling a 21st century nation in which the role of
Communist Party leadership is being questioned. Explains Jonathan
Pollack, the Rand Corp.'s chief China expert: "Jiang is something
of a paradoxical figure... The leadership is very anxious. They
have a collective self-esteem problem." Jiang's response is to
try to be as reassuring as possible. He is a man who scrupulously
avoids breaking eggs.
The problem is that there is much in China that needs breaking.
In fine imperial tradition, Jiang has left this task to an
underling. While Jiang pacifies by practicing the art of the
possible, it is Premier Zhu who prefers--even enjoys--sharpening
his teeth on the impossible. Zhu staked his personal prestige on
doing a WTO deal single-handedly when he traveled to the U.S. in
April--and failed when the White House decided a deal was
politically unwise. Jiang patiently waited for Clinton to
approach him, meanwhile building a consensus among the Chinese
leadership that made the final negotiations this month a question
of technicalities rather than political will.
Such caution has been with Jiang from the moment Deng tapped him
to head the party after the June 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre.
"I feel as if I am walking on thin ice," Jiang said then, and
even now his nervous smile and effete hand wave suggest someone
who knows he's treading delicate ground.
His dilemma is that he is the prisoner of the Chinese Communist
Party, which he leads 50 years after its revolution: a party that
is empty of vision, worried about unrest, out of touch with a
younger generation of Chinese for whom money, not ideology, is
the bottom line. The harder Jiang tries to impress, the less
China's population wants to listen. He understands the need for
economic development, but political openness is still out of the
question. Even as the ink was drying on the trade deal, police
were detaining members of Falun Gong, the banned meditation cult.
Jiang Zemin will continue to seek his Emperor's robes. His next
hope for greatness may lie outside the economic sphere, in
Taiwan. "Jiang wants some kind of date for reunification. Then
he will go down in history," says Andy Xie, chief economist for
Morgan Stanley in Hong Kong. But moving mountains and changing
the weather may prove easier than persuading 22 million
Taiwanese that their future is best assured under Emperor Jiang.
Until then, WTO may be as good as it gets for the smiling
President. --With reporting by Jaime A. FlorCruz/Beijing and
Barry Hillenbrand/Washington
DRIVEN TO LEAD
FACE TIME Jiang's image now appears on posters beside those of
former red Emperors Mao and Deng
AN IDEOLOGY President's handlers propagate Jiang Zemin
"thought"-politics, study, "healthy trends." The campaign
impresses few
INTERNATIONAL Jiang raises his profile by friendship with
Clinton-until the U.S. bombs Belgrade's Chinese embassy in May
BRIEFING
Who Got the Best Deal?
After 13 years of talks, China and the U.S. last week struck a
bargain that will let Beijing into the exclusive World Trade
Organization. The pact took an awful lot of horse trading. Here's
where each side won and lost:
TELECOMMUNICATIONS
--THE agreement: China will let telecom firms, including U.S.
giants such as AT&T, have new, though still limited access to its
domestic market
--WHO WINS: U.S. telecom firms, big time. They will be able to
sell their voice and data services to the Chinese
FARMING
--THE DEAL: China says it will slash tariffs on farm goods to
less than 15% by 2005. That should give many Chinese access to
new foods from all over the world
--WHO WINS: Farmers in the U.S., who can expect to sell more to
China
STEEL
--THE DEAL: China agrees its state-owned (and -subsidized) steel
industry won't dump tons of cheap product onto crucial U.S.
markets
--WHO WINS: A toss-up. China will sell more cheap steel overseas;
U.S. firms will still have to compete
TEXTILES
--THE DEAL: Chinese textile plants will be able to sell their
products anywhere in the world
--WHO WINS: For China's clothing firms, WTO is a dream come true;
for U.S. plants, the cheap Chinese exports will be a nightmare
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Cover Date: November 29, 1999
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