Goldman Sachs is increasingly confident that the US economy will stick the soft landing that many thought was nearly impossible to pull off.
In a research report published Monday night, Goldman Sachs lowered its estimated chance of a US recession over the next 12 months to just 15%.
That’s basically in-line with the historical average chance of a recession on any given year. It’s also down from the Wall Street bank’s prior forecast of 20% and well below its 35% projection in March as the banking crisis erupted.
The report, titled “Soft Landing Summer,” pointed to a series of encouraging economic indicators on inflation and the jobs market that suggest the US economy will avoid the Federal Reserve-fueled recession that many feared.