Floridians are bracing for Tropical Storm Ian, which is expected to rapidly intensify and become a hurricane on Monday before hitting western Cuba, bringing with it the threats of strong winds and storm surge as high as 9 to 14 feet, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Ian’s exact path beyond Tuesday remains unclear: The storm, which developed Friday in the central Caribbean Sea, is expected to reach the US later this week, but with models showing a wide spread of possible scenarios, it’s too early to know where the storm will hit, when – and how strong it will be.
The storm began strengthening Sunday night, with sustained winds of winds of 60 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center. “Additional strengthening is forecast tonight, followed by more rapid strengthening on Monday and Tuesday,” the center said.
The first US tropical storm watches associated with Ian were issued Sunday and are in effect for the lower Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge to Key West and including the Dry Tortugas, the hurricane center said.
The storm is forecast to become a hurricane on Monday and then a major hurricane on Tuesday, meaning Category 3 or higher, the center said.
Meteorologists predict the storm will peak at Category 4 strength over the eastern Gulf of Mexico in three days, but Ian is then expected to weaken before reaching Florida.
Still, Florida officials are urging residents to be prepared for the worst, and the hurricane center warned Sunday morning of a “risk of dangerous storm surge, hurricane-force winds, and heavy rainfall along the west coast of Florida and the Florida Panhandle” by the middle of the week, regardless of the storm’s exact track and strength.
“We’re going to keep monitoring the track of this storm, but it’s really important to stress the degree of uncertainty that still exists,” Gov. Ron DeSantis said in a news conference Sunday, warning residents that even if the storm weakens before landfall, it would “still have significant impacts.”
Floridians can expect “heavy rains, strong winds, flash flooding, storm surge and even isolated tornadoes,” the governor said. But the director of Florida’s Division of Emergency Management was particularly focused on the storm surge threat, cautioning that whatever surge develops while Ian is a major hurricane could persist as it nears land, even if the storm weakens.
“We could see a situation where we have Cat 4 storm surge and potentially a Cat 1 or 2 hurricane landfall,” Director Kevin Guthrie said.
Anne Bink, associate administrator of the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s Office of Response and Recovery, kept the message simple: “Prepare now.”
Florida residents should know their evacuation routes and have preparedness kits that can last them at least three days, Bink told CNN. “Things like food, water, battery chargers for your phone. Even things like your insurance documents – take pictures of them so you have them with you,” Bink said.