The tsar suddenly might have no clothes. It has been a startling week on both sides of the Ukraine and Russia border.
What’s left of the curtain protecting the dignity of Russia’s military has been pulled back, and it’s definitely not the second mightiest in the world.
Russia’s withdrawal from around Kharkiv – a planned “regrouping” that some state media didn’t even dare mention – is arguably more significant than its earlier collapse of positions around the Ukrainian capital Kyiv. These units had been dug in for months, defending their positions effectively – as CNN witnessed during weeks spent along the arterial roads north out of Kharkiv – and were at times literally minutes drive from the Russian border.
That Moscow could not sustain a force so achingly close to its own territory speaks volumes about the real state of its supply chain and military. It is almost as if these retreating units ran back to a void, not to the nuclear power that in February expected to overrun its neighbor within 72 hours.
Secondly, Russia’s units do not appear to have effected a careful and cautious withdrawal. They ran, and left behind both armor and precious remaining supplies of ammunition. Open source intelligence website Oryx estimated that from Wednesday to Sunday, at least 338 fighter jets or tanks or trucks were left behind.
Pockets of Russian troops may remain to harass Ukrainian forces in the weeks ahead, but the nature of the frontline has irrevocably changed, as has its size. Kyiv is suddenly fighting a much smaller war now, along a greatly reduced frontline, against an enemy who also appear a lot smaller.
Indeed, Russia’s army relies now on forced mobilization and prisoners for its depleted ranks. Ukraine has been quite surgical, hitting supply routes to cut off already exhausted units, detecting which were the least prepared and manned. It’s been staggeringly effective and speedy.
Whether Ukraine’s counteroffensive becomes decisive rests on how far its forces are now able to push: Would going for even more territory risk over-stretch? Or is Ukraine facing an enemy that simply has no more fight left in it? No matter how over-hyped Russia’s forces became during the chaotic decades of America’s war on terror, a military that needs North Korean shells and St Petersburg convicts is at best down to the bare minimum strength needed to protect Russia itself.
So what next? Unless we see a remarkable reversal, Russia’s bid to take all of Donets