A lot of attention has been paid to the problems President Joe Biden and other Democrats have with core party constituencies, including young and Hispanic voters. And there’s been plenty of polling to back that up.
Far less attention, though, has been paid to potential declines in Democrats’ standing among groups for which polling is more limited. Getting data on these groups usually requires aggregating polls and looking at trends in real-world elections. I’ve noted, for instance, Biden’s declining approval rating with Black adults.
But what about Asian American voters, who made up only 4% of the electorate in 2020? Asian Americans are the fastest-growing racial or ethnic portion of the electorate, which makes them electorally important.
And that’s where we begin our statistical journey today.
A canary in the coal mine in San Francisco?
My interest in examining Asian American voters within the context of the larger electorate came about because of what has arguably been the political earthquake of the year thus far – the June 7 recall of progressive District Attorney Chesa Boudin in deep-blue San Francisco.
One big reason Boudin went down to defeat: Asian American voters.
That election result and other data reveal that Asians are still likely to vote Democratic on the whole, but the party has seen a disproportionate decline in support among this group.