Round three of tornadoes coming to the South

Updated 7:30 PM ET, Mon April 4, 2022

A version of this article originally appeared in the weekly weather newsletter, which is released every Monday. You can sign up here to receive them every week and during significant storms.

(CNN)As we enter our third week in a row with the potential for severe weather, it's starting to feel a bit like a broken record.

It's not only the third week in a row with the potential for severe weather, but it's also happening in the same places over and over.
Is it just sticking out in our minds because the first round caught our attention with the deadly EF-3 tornado that hit outside of New Orleans? Or is there more to it?
Often, weather systems follow patterns, so this severe weather potential in the same areas may be more common than you might think.
We reached out to the Storm Prediction Center and talked with Bill Bunting, the chief of forecast operations, about the storms returning to the same areas lately.
"The atmosphere has a fairly chaotic component to it, but it does occasionally get into patterns where we see this repeatability. We've seen it in all seasons," said Bunting. "Unfortunately, for this past month, and certainly for the week ahead, the threat for severe weather is going to be present again, in many of the same areas that have already seen enough severe weather just over the past four weeks."
He pointed out the severe weather week after week has a strong connection to the placement of the jet stream, which creates the conditions for repetition.
"These types of weather patterns typically feature strong southwesterly winds in the mid-levels and strong southeast to southerly winds near the surface. That creates a natural environment for wind shear that is favorable for organized thunderstorms and tornadoes," Bunting explained.
In addition, Bunting mentioned the very moist air flowing northward from the Gulf of Mexico, which has helped the storms develop over the last few weeks, is once again what we will see this week.

The storm timeline

This week is shaping up to be a classic severe weather event.
"Moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will begin to surge north toward the southern tier states and converge with the cold front slowly moving into the southern Plains," wrote the Weather Prediction Center (WPC). "This will lead to a steady expansion of showers and thunderstorms from the southern Plains into the Deep South over the next couple of days."
The SPC highlighted an area including more than 10 million people for a Level 3 out of 5 risk for severe weather today.
The "enhanced" area includes Dallas, Shreveport and Jackson. However, even Baton Rouge, New Orleans, San Antonio and Houston could all see storms.
"Damaging wind gusts, large to very large hail, and tornadoes will all be possible," the SPC outlined in its forecast discussion about Monday's severe weather threat.
By Tuesday, the threat shifts to the east, yet still includes some of the same cities as today. New Orleans, Baton Rouge and Jackson will still be under the threat for severe weather Tuesday, since the storms will be arriving during the overnight hours tonight into tomorrow.
But we will also add Montgomery, Savannah and Charleston, which will be under a Level 3 out of 5 "enhanced" risk for severe weather.
The National Weather Service (NWS) office in New Orleans was bold in its forecast discussion.
After two weeks of severe weather, they started by saying, "Bottom line up front ... strong to severe thunderstorms possible late Monday night and Tuesday morning."
They went on to say, "All modes of severe weather possible, with the wind threat currently being emphasized." While the wind threat will be the biggest threat, tornadoes can't be ruled out.
"A swath of damaging wind gusts and several tornadoes are possible," the SPC noted in its forecast discussion.<