North Carolina Republican Sen. Thom Tillis has a theory about the 2020 election that you need to hear.
“The stakes are very high this election, but you know why I know we’re going to win?” Tillis said in a speech at the North Carolina Republican virtual convention Friday night. “Because people remember how good their lives were back in February.”
Er, what?
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So, under Tillis’ theory, the last five months, which have been among the most trying, unusual, difficult and without a doubt memorable months of any of our lives, will be forgotten – or glossed over – in November because, back in February, the economy was good?
Is it possible Tillis actually believes that? I mean, I suppose so? We can convince ourselves of almost anything – particularly, as is the case for Tillis, when our future job prospects rely on rationalizing away reality. (Tillis is up for a second term this November and is in a serious battle against Democrat Cal Cunningham.)
But, whether or not Tillis actually believes what he said, it’s demonstrably false.
There is absolutely no data that suggests the America that existed in February – before we really knew what Covid-19 was or had ever heard the name George Floyd – bears any real resemblance to the current state of the country.
The past few months have been relentlessly unsettling, scary and tense. And they have changed us.
The nationwide quarantine occasioned by the coronavirus and the ongoing spikes in the disease around the country have made terms like “masking” and “social distancing” common parlance. Acts as simple as getting coffee – did I bring my mask? Do I need gloves? – have been fundamentally altered. Walking down the street is now an act of pre-planning and silent communication as you and the person walking toward you have to do a dance as to who will alter their course to maintain 6 feet of distance.
The death of Floyd while in the custody of Minneapolis police officers – and the protests it sparked in cities and towns large and small around the country – have forced race and ethnicity back to the forefront of our national conversation. Floyd’s death has also done more than that, however, effecting real change in the ways big business operates. On Monday, for example, the Washington Redskins announced they would retire the team’s name and logo.
Those tectonic shifts have also altered our political landscape in drastic ways. Large majorities of the public now disapprove of the way in which President Donald Trump has handled both the coronavirus pandemic and the racial unrest set off by Floyd’s death. An ABC-Ipsos poll released last week showed 67% of Americans disapproved of how Trump has handled the coronavirus crisis; an identical 67% disapproved of how he has dealt with the issue of race.
And, as Trump has lost the public on those two issues, he’s also seen his chances of winning a second term fade. Former Vice President Joe Biden now has a 9-point lead over Trump, according to the Real Clear Politics polling average, and, just Sunday, CBS News released polling in Arizona, Florida and Texas that showed the incumbent in less-than-ideal shape.
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“In all three states, most voters say their state reopened too soon, and those who say this feel their state went too fast under pressure from the Trump administration,” wrote CBS of the results. “Most also say the president is doing a bad job handling the outbreak.”
Nonpartisan political handicappers have begun to suggest that Trump could be headed for a defeat so catastrophic that he costs Republicans their Senate majority and forces them further into the minority in the House.
“This election is looking more like a Democratic tsunami than simply a Blue wave,” wrote The Cook Political Report’s Amy Walter earlier this month. “Republican strategists we’ve spoken with this week think Trump is close to the point of no return. A couple of others wondered if Trump had reached his ‘Katrina’ moment: a permanent loss of trust and faith of the majority of voters.”
Given that mountain of evidence that the last five months have profoundly altered the political landscape, Tillis’ insistence that voters will remember the good times is akin to that “joke” about the assassination of Abraham Lincoln: “Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play?”
Tillis’ hope to simply “yada yada yada” away the Trump administration’s botched handling of the coronavirus pandemic and his add-fuel-to-the-fire approach to the racial unrest in the country is the most severe form of political wishful thinking I’ve ever witnessed. And that’s saying something.