new poll harry enten 2020
new poll harry enten 2020
Now playing
01:38
Joe Biden leads nationally as Pete Buttigieg rises
WASHINGTON, DC - MARCH 05: Sen. John Cornyn (R) (R-TX) talks with Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) while walking to the U.S. Senate chamber for a vote March 05, 2021 in Washington, DC. The Senate continues to debate the latest COVID-19 relief bill.  (Photo by Win McNamee/Getty Images)
PHOTO: Win McNamee/Getty Images
WASHINGTON, DC - MARCH 05: Sen. John Cornyn (R) (R-TX) talks with Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) while walking to the U.S. Senate chamber for a vote March 05, 2021 in Washington, DC. The Senate continues to debate the latest COVID-19 relief bill. (Photo by Win McNamee/Getty Images)
Now playing
02:54
Axelrod breaks down Manchin's surprising move
sinema
PHOTO: CNN
sinema
Now playing
01:50
Senator's move has many on the internet outraged
PHOTO: FBI
Now playing
02:58
Trump State Department official charged in Capitol riot
WASHINGTON, DC - JANUARY 06: U.S. Sen. Paul Gosar (R-AZ) speaks on the floor of the House Chamber during a joint session of congress on January 06, 2021 in Washington, DC. Congress held a joint session today to ratify President-elect Joe Biden's 306-232 Electoral College win over President Donald Trump. A group of Republican senators said they would reject the Electoral College votes of several states unless Congress appointed a commission to audit the election results. (Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images)
PHOTO: Drew Angerer/Getty Images
WASHINGTON, DC - JANUARY 06: U.S. Sen. Paul Gosar (R-AZ) speaks on the floor of the House Chamber during a joint session of congress on January 06, 2021 in Washington, DC. Congress held a joint session today to ratify President-elect Joe Biden's 306-232 Electoral College win over President Donald Trump. A group of Republican senators said they would reject the Electoral College votes of several states unless Congress appointed a commission to audit the election results. (Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images)
Now playing
02:19
This is what Rep. Gosar was posting days before Capitol riot
John King Magic Wall 0305
PHOTO: CNN
John King Magic Wall 0305
Now playing
02:17
President Biden sending a team to the US-Mexico border
Senior Advisor to the President Jared Kushner  attends a press conference on September 4, 2020, in the Brady Briefing Room of the White House in Washington, DC. (Photo by Brendan Smialowski / AFP) (Photo by BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP via Getty Images)
PHOTO: BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP/AFP via Getty Images
Senior Advisor to the President Jared Kushner attends a press conference on September 4, 2020, in the Brady Briefing Room of the White House in Washington, DC. (Photo by Brendan Smialowski / AFP) (Photo by BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP via Getty Images)
Now playing
02:50
Jared Kushner disappears from Trump's inner circle
Rep john garamendi 0305
PHOTO: CNN
Rep john garamendi 0305
Now playing
02:33
Rep. Garamendi: Any lawmaker involved in Capitol riots ought to be thrown out of Congress
Protesters gather at Lincoln Park to demand the Emancipation Memorial be taken down on June 23, 2020 in Washington, DC.
PHOTO: Tasos Katopodis/Getty Images
Protesters gather at Lincoln Park to demand the Emancipation Memorial be taken down on June 23, 2020 in Washington, DC.
Now playing
03:01
Why some people want this Abraham Lincoln statue taken down
psaki
PHOTO: CNN
psaki
Now playing
00:56
Psaki fires back at Trump testing czar over vaccine claims
PHOTO: CNN
Now playing
03:04
Avlon: Pence's op-ed is 'way worse than Stockholm syndrome'
PHOTO: CNN
Now playing
01:35
See what security looks like outside US Capitol
PHOTO: Gov. Cuomo's office
Now playing
03:35
Gov. Andrew Cuomo addresses women's allegations
Cuomo
PHOTO: Gov. Cuomo's Office
Cuomo
Now playing
00:56
Cuomo says he has no plans to resign
Now playing
04:51
Elected Republican who supports Biden's bill speaks out
President Joe Biden speaks during a meeting about cancer in the Oval Office of the White House, Wednesday, March 3, 2021, in Washington. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)
PHOTO: Alex Brandon/AP
President Joe Biden speaks during a meeting about cancer in the Oval Office of the White House, Wednesday, March 3, 2021, in Washington. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)
Now playing
01:20
'Neanderthal thinking': Biden on states lifting mask restrictions
(CNN) —  

First things first: The theme song of the week is the closing credits to Baywatch.

Poll of the week: A new CNN/SSRS poll shows that former Vice President Joe Biden leads the Democrats among potential Democratic voters nationwide with 28%. Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren are in a fight for second at 17% and 14% respectively. South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg comes in fourth at 11%.

Other national polling shows Biden with a clear advantage on the Democratic field.

What’s the point: Biden is steady as a rock in national polling. As I noted earlier this week, he’s been within the margin of error of 30% in all but two CNN/SSRS national polls. Yet, it always seems that his opponents (and some members of the press) are just waiting for him to collapse.

Biden could eventually falter, but it seems to me that those counting on it just aren’t talking to enough older black voters.

Biden’s averaged 49% among all potential black Democratic primary voters in our last two CNN national polls. That’s good enough not only for a 35-point lead over his Democratic competitors, but good enough to beat all of them combined by about 10 points.

But I think treating black voters as if they’re some sort of monolith creates some sort of a blind spot for those following the campaign: the wide faultline along age in the black community.

In our polling over the last two months, Biden is getting northward of 60% of the vote among black voters 45 years and older. His nearest competitor, Warren, is 50 points behind him.

Younger black voters are far less enthralled with Biden. A look at our polling over the last three months has him in the low 30s with black voters under the age of 45.

This large age gap has existed all primary long, and it’s not going away. If anything, our polling is indicating that it is getting larger.

The age gap in Biden’s support benefits him in a way that I’m not quite sure folks understand. Simply put, there are more older black voters than there are younger black voters. Those 45 years and older made up 60% of all potential black primary voters. In the majority black primary in South Carolina, those 45 years and older were 71% of all actual primary voters in 2016.

I cannot help but think this age divide imperils some folks ability to understand Biden’s appeal with black voters. If all you’re reading about is how a lot of younger black activists don’t like Biden (which is true), you’re missing most of the black voting population. This is also true if you’re someone who gets their news off of Twitter, where younger voices dominate in a way they don’t in the real world.

Indeed, I would argue that Biden’s standing with older black voters is historically strong. Looking back over the past 40 years, the only candidates with anywhere near the sort of edge with older black voters at this point in the primary that Biden has were Jesse Jackson in 1988, Al Gore in 2000 and Hillary Clinton in 2016.

All three of these candidates went on to easily win older black voters. Clinton and Gore would win the primary overall.

It’s Jackson, though, who may be an interesting comparison to Biden. While the two are certainly very different (e.g. Jackson was the first black candidate to win a substantial number of primaries), Jackson held onto his black support even after performing poorly in the mostly white states of Iowa and New Hampshire.

No one knows if Biden can maintain the backing of older black voters if he loses in Iowa and New Hampshire, but Jackson showed it can be done.