After months of unrest, Hong Kong is holding a de facto referendum on protests

James Griffiths
By James Griffiths, CNN
Updated 2:27 AM EST, Sat November 23, 2019
Posters put up by protesters who barricaded themselves inside the Hong Kong Polytechnic University are seen on the campus in the Hung Hom district of Hong Kong on November 21, 2019. - Hardline Hong Kong protesters held their ground on November 21 in a university besieged for days by police as the US passed a bill lauding the city's pro-democracy movement, setting up a likely clash between Washington and Beijing. (Photo by YE AUNG THU / AFP) (Photo by YE AUNG THU/AFP via Getty Images)
PHOTO: YE AUNG THU/AFP/AFP via Getty Images
Posters put up by protesters who barricaded themselves inside the Hong Kong Polytechnic University are seen on the campus in the Hung Hom district of Hong Kong on November 21, 2019. - Hardline Hong Kong protesters held their ground on November 21 in a university besieged for days by police as the US passed a bill lauding the city's pro-democracy movement, setting up a likely clash between Washington and Beijing. (Photo by YE AUNG THU / AFP) (Photo by YE AUNG THU/AFP via Getty Images)
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(CNN) —  

More than 4 million Hong Kongers will vote for hundreds of district council seats Sunday in what is being framed as a referendum on the protests which have roiled the Asian financial hub for almost six months.

Hong Kong elections are traditionally peaceful, even dull, but officials have warned that, amid the heightened tensions in the city, they will not hesitate to postpone the vote or close polling stations in the instance of violence. Riot police will be stationed in “inconspicuous” locations inside every polling station, police told CNN.

After months of unrest with both sides claiming to represent the will of the majority of Hong Kongers, Sunday’s vote offers the first objective test of how people in the city feel about the protests and the government.

According to the government, the protests have lost public support and a silent majority of Hong Kongers are sick and tired of the violence and chaos, and they stand behind the police in doing everything necessary to stop the unrest. According to protesters, the city is with them, no matter the cost, and the lack of mass public rallies in recent months is only due to increasing restrictions on public assembly.

This debate has been playing out for months now, with the divide widening and the conversation becoming ever more toxic. Both sides can point to evidence in their favor – people coming out to clear streets of barricades; sympathy protests by white-collar workers – but this week, we will finally get an answer.

Historic elections

Unlike Hong Kong’s Legislative Council (LegCo) – which is chosen by a semi-democratic web of directly elected seats, functional constituencies and closed races – the district councils are the only official bodies in the city elected by universal suffrage; one person, one vote.

This year also represents the first time that all 452 constituencies are being contested, meaning that all registered voters, about 56% of Hong Kong’s 7.4 million population, will get a say. In the past, lackluster engagement has meant pro-Beijing candidates ran unopposed in some areas, aiding their control of all 18 separate district councils.

District councils are elected on five-year terms, and largely handle local affairs. They lack much in terms of real power, serving mainly to advise the government on issues affecting their neighborhoods and the allocation of funds for local projects.

The vote has taken on an outsized importance in recent years, however, as a way of signaling wider discontent about the slow pace of political reform.

“In the past 10 years or so, the lack of progress towards universal suffrage has improved participation over the last three district council elections,” said Kenneth Chan, an expert on politics and governance at Hong Kong Baptist University. Turnout in 2015 was 47%, compared to around 38% in 2007 and closer to the amount who vote in the LegCo elections, typically seen as far more important.

Chan said that it was “unprecedented that all 452 constituencies are contested,” and this raises the “theoretical possibility that the anti-government block might be able to win more than half of the constituencies.” Doing so would not only send a clear message to the government, it could also influence the selection of the next Chief Executive, Chan added.

The district councils choose 117 of the 1,200-member “broadly representative” committee that currently chooses the city’s leader, meaning substantial gains could mean pro-democrats have more of a say in who succeeds embattled current leader, Carrie Lam, in 2022.

Five demands

At present, pro-Beijing parties control all 18 district councils, so any victory for the broader pro-democracy camp will inevitably be cast as a win for protesters.

Earlier this month, the city’s number two official, Matthew Cheung, told legislators the government could not understand public anger because there were no public opinion polls available and “people could be upset about various things.”

Cheung’s statement not only ignores the widely respected polls that are available – they typically show lackluster approval for the government and strong support for the protesters – it also acts as if the established demands of the protest movement are hard to understand.

For months now, protesters have consistently stuck to the slogan “five demands, not one less.”

Those five demands are: withdraw the extradition bill that kicked off the entire crisis (since achieved); launch an independent inquiry into allegations of police brutality; retract any categorization of a protest on June 12 as a “riot”; amnesty for arrested protesters; and introducing universal suffrage for how the Chief Executive and Legislative Council are elected.

While some candidates are running on fairly standard local council issues – “eliminate illegal parking,” “build an animal friendly community,” “strengthen environmental conservation” – a substantial minority, around 13%, include the phrase “five demands, not one less” in their election material.

In two districts, Sai Kung and Kowloon City, more than 25% of candidates mention the five demands, while 23% of candidates in the northern district of Yuen Long, mention another key issue, calling for an investigation into the attacks on protesters in the local subway station on July 21.

However, there is suspicion among some in the protest camp that some of the less well known pro-democracy candidates standing are not what they appear – and instead are aiming to split the vote. To counter this, Power For Democracy, an umbrella group for pro-democracy parties, has issued a list of 397 candidates it endorses, one in all but 55 constituencies. This list has been widely shared by protesters on messaging apps and AirDropped to strangers on the subway.

In the past, the pro-Beijing camp has been far better at coordinating than opposition parties, amid accusations Chinese officials sometimes intervene to pressure candidates to drop out so as not to split the vote. This year, the Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong (DAB), the largest pro-Beijing party, is fielding 179 candidates.

A riot policeman sprays pepper spray at a man as they disperse a crowd during a demonstration against "parallel traders" who buy goods in Hong Kong to resell in mainland China on Sunday, January 5.
Photos: Hong Kong unrest
PHOTO: Andy Wong/AP
A riot policeman sprays pepper spray at a man as they disperse a crowd during a demonstration against "parallel traders" who buy goods in Hong Kong to resell in mainland China on Sunday, January 5.
Pro-democracy supporters hold placards as they take part in a New Year's Day rally on Wednesday, January 1 in Hong Kong.
Photos: Hong Kong unrest
PHOTO: Anthony Kwan/Getty Images
Pro-democracy supporters hold placards as they take part in a New Year's Day rally on Wednesday, January 1 in Hong Kong.
Pro-democracy supporters wave flags during a countdown party in Tsim Sha Tsui district on New Year's Eve.
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PHOTO: Anthony Kwan/Getty Images
Pro-democracy supporters wave flags during a countdown party in Tsim Sha Tsui district on New Year's Eve.
Police arrive to conduct a clearance operation in the Kowloon district of Hong Kong on December 31.
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PHOTO: Isaac Lawrence/AFP via Getty Images
Police arrive to conduct a clearance operation in the Kowloon district of Hong Kong on December 31.
Protesters take photos of a 'Free HK' light display at a gathering in the Central district of Hong Kong on December 30.
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PHOTO: Isaac Lawrence/AFP via Getty Images
Protesters take photos of a 'Free HK' light display at a gathering in the Central district of Hong Kong on December 30.
A man is detained by riot police during a demonstration in a shopping mall at Sheung Shui district on December 28.
Photos: Hong Kong unrest
PHOTO: Anthony Kwan/Getty Images
A man is detained by riot police during a demonstration in a shopping mall at Sheung Shui district on December 28.
A protester reacts after police fire tear gas to disperse bystanders in the Jordan district of Hong Kong, early on December 25.
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PHOTO: Philip Fong/AFP via Getty Images
A protester reacts after police fire tear gas to disperse bystanders in the Jordan district of Hong Kong, early on December 25.
People celebrating the holidays react to tear gas as police confront protesters on Christmas Eve.
Photos: Hong Kong unrest
PHOTO: Kin Cheung/AP
People celebrating the holidays react to tear gas as police confront protesters on Christmas Eve.
Protesters march in Hong Kong.
Photos: Hong Kong unrest
PHOTO: Anthony Kwan/Getty Images
Protesters march in Hong Kong.
Protesters stage a rally outside the US Consulate in Hong Kong on Sunday, December 1. Hundreds gathered Sunday afternoon outside the US Consulate for another pro-US rally to show support for President Trump after he signed the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act into law.
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PHOTO: Vincent Thian/AP
Protesters stage a rally outside the US Consulate in Hong Kong on Sunday, December 1. Hundreds gathered Sunday afternoon outside the US Consulate for another pro-US rally to show support for President Trump after he signed the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act into law.
People take part in a march from Tsim Sha Tsui to Hung Hom in Hong Kong on December 1.
Photos: Hong Kong unrest
PHOTO: Philip Fong/AFP/Getty Images
People take part in a march from Tsim Sha Tsui to Hung Hom in Hong Kong on December 1.
Pro-democracy candidate Jimmy Sham, right, celebrates with a supporter after winning his election in the Sha Tin district, early November 25. "Today's result represents (my constituency's) support to protesters. The government should immediately establish the Five Demands and respond to the public's voices," Sham posted on Facebook, referencing a long-standing protest slogan.
Photos: Hong Kong unrest
PHOTO: Vincent Thian/AP
Pro-democracy candidate Jimmy Sham, right, celebrates with a supporter after winning his election in the Sha Tin district, early November 25. "Today's result represents (my constituency's) support to protesters. The government should immediately establish the Five Demands and respond to the public's voices," Sham posted on Facebook, referencing a long-standing protest slogan.
Pro-democracy candidate James Yu hugs his girlfriend after winning his seat in district council elections, early November 25.
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PHOTO: Vincent Yu/AP
Pro-democracy candidate James Yu hugs his girlfriend after winning his seat in district council elections, early November 25.
People line up to vote outside of a polling place in Hong Kong, November 24. More than 2.9 million people turned out to vote in Sunday's elections, which have been framed as a de facto referendum on the almost six months of ongoing protests.
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PHOTO: Vincent Yu/AP
People line up to vote outside of a polling place in Hong Kong, November 24. More than 2.9 million people turned out to vote in Sunday's elections, which have been framed as a de facto referendum on the almost six months of ongoing protests.
Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam casts her ballot for the district council elections at a polling place, November 24. In a statement Monday, Lam said her government "respects the election results."
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PHOTO: Kin Cheung/AP
Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam casts her ballot for the district council elections at a polling place, November 24. In a statement Monday, Lam said her government "respects the election results."
A group of protesters leave the Hong Kong Polytechnic University holding hands before surrendering to police in the Hung Hom district on November 22.
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PHOTO: Dale de la Rey/AFP/Getty Images
A group of protesters leave the Hong Kong Polytechnic University holding hands before surrendering to police in the Hung Hom district on November 22.
Protesters use clothes and helmets to form "SOS" at Hong Kong Polytechnic University on November 21.
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PHOTO: Vincent Thian/AP
Protesters use clothes and helmets to form "SOS" at Hong Kong Polytechnic University on November 21.
Protesters raise their hands to represent the five demands of pro-democracy demonstrators during a rally in support of the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act in the U.S., at the IFC Mall in Hong Kong, on November 21.
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PHOTO: Ng Han Guan/AP
Protesters raise their hands to represent the five demands of pro-democracy demonstrators during a rally in support of the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act in the U.S., at the IFC Mall in Hong Kong, on November 21.
Tables and chairs piled up to create a barrier are left behind by protesters who barricaded themselves inside the Hong Kong Polytechnic University.
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PHOTO: Nicolas Asfouri/AFP/Getty Images
Tables and chairs piled up to create a barrier are left behind by protesters who barricaded themselves inside the Hong Kong Polytechnic University.
A Fire Services Department rescue diver prepares to enter the sewage system on November 20 to search for protesters who escaped from the Hong Kong Polytechnic University.
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PHOTO: Anthony Kwan/Getty Images
A Fire Services Department rescue diver prepares to enter the sewage system on November 20 to search for protesters who escaped from the Hong Kong Polytechnic University.
Police detain a group of people after they tried to flee the Hong Kong Polytechnic University campus on November 19. Last week, thousands of student protesters streamed into the university and occupied the campus as the city's violent political unrest reached fever pitch.
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PHOTO: Nicolas Asfouri/AFP/Getty Images
Police detain a group of people after they tried to flee the Hong Kong Polytechnic University campus on November 19. Last week, thousands of student protesters streamed into the university and occupied the campus as the city's violent political unrest reached fever pitch.
A protester uses a flashlight while crawling through a sewer tunnel to see how wide it is as he and others try to find an escape route from the Hong Kong Polytechnic University on November 19.
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A protester uses a flashlight while crawling through a sewer tunnel to see how wide it is as he and others try to find an escape route from the Hong Kong Polytechnic University on November 19.
A protester walks through a gymnasium at Hong Kong Polytechnic University on November 19.
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PHOTO: Vincent Yu/AP
A protester walks through a gymnasium at Hong Kong Polytechnic University on November 19.
Protesters react as police fire tear gas in the Kowloon area of Hong Kong, Monday, November 18.
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Protesters react as police fire tear gas in the Kowloon area of Hong Kong, Monday, November 18.
Firefighters put out a burning car set on fire by protesters near Hong Kong Polytechnic University in the Tsim Sha Tsui district on November 18.
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PHOTO: Billy H.C. Kwok/Getty Images
Firefighters put out a burning car set on fire by protesters near Hong Kong Polytechnic University in the Tsim Sha Tsui district on November 18.
Police in riot gear move through a cloud of smoke as they detain a protester at the Hong Kong Polytechnic University in Hong Kong on November 18. Police have attempted to clear the university, which has been occupied by protesters for days as a strategic protest base.
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PHOTO: Ng Han Guan/AP
Police in riot gear move through a cloud of smoke as they detain a protester at the Hong Kong Polytechnic University in Hong Kong on November 18. Police have attempted to clear the university, which has been occupied by protesters for days as a strategic protest base.
Police fire tear gas as protesters attempt to leave Hong Kong Polytechnic University via a bridge on November 18.
Photos: Hong Kong unrest
PHOTO: Dale de la Rey/AFP via Getty Images
Police fire tear gas as protesters attempt to leave Hong Kong Polytechnic University via a bridge on November 18.
A member of the police clashes with a protester at the Hong Kong Poytechnic University on November 18.
Photos: Hong Kong unrest
PHOTO: Anthony Kwan/Getty Images
A member of the police clashes with a protester at the Hong Kong Poytechnic University on November 18.
Protesters use a rope to lower themselves from a pedestrian bridge to waiting motorbikes to escape from police at Hong Kong Polytechnic University on November 18.
Photos: Hong Kong unrest
PHOTO: Kin Cheung/AP
Protesters use a rope to lower themselves from a pedestrian bridge to waiting motorbikes to escape from police at Hong Kong Polytechnic University on November 18.
A protester throws an umbrella onto a fire at the barricaded main entrance of Hong Kong Polytechnic University on November 18.
Photos: Hong Kong unrest
PHOTO: Anthony Wallace/AFP via Getty Images
A protester throws an umbrella onto a fire at the barricaded main entrance of Hong Kong Polytechnic University on November 18.
An anti-government protester is detained at Hong Kong Polytechnic University on November 18.
Photos: Hong Kong unrest
PHOTO: Laurel Chor/Getty Images
An anti-government protester is detained at Hong Kong Polytechnic University on November 18.
An anti-government protester is showered down by volunteer medical workers after he was soaked by a police water cannons firing pepper spray-infused water at Hong Kong Polytechnic University on November 18.
Photos: Hong Kong unrest
PHOTO: Anthony Wallace/AFP/Getty Images
An anti-government protester is showered down by volunteer medical workers after he was soaked by a police water cannons firing pepper spray-infused water at Hong Kong Polytechnic University on November 18.
Riot police fire tear gas and rubber bullets as protesters attempt to leave Hong Kong Poytechnic University on November 18.
Photos: Hong Kong unrest
PHOTO: Anthony Kwan/Getty Images
Riot police fire tear gas and rubber bullets as protesters attempt to leave Hong Kong Poytechnic University on November 18.
A protester prepares to shoot an arrow during a confrontation with police.
Photos: Hong Kong unrest
PHOTO: Kin Cheung/AP
A protester prepares to shoot an arrow during a confrontation with police.
Police use a water cannon outside the Hong Kong Polytechnic University.
Photos: Hong Kong unrest
PHOTO: ISAAC LAWRENCE/AFP/Getty Images
Police use a water cannon outside the Hong Kong Polytechnic University.
A protester throws a Molotov cocktail at police on November 17.
Photos: Hong Kong unrest
PHOTO: ANTHONY WALLACE/AFP/Getty Images
A protester throws a Molotov cocktail at police on November 17.
Protesters use a catapult to fire bricks at the police from inside the Hong Kong Polytechnic University on November 17.
Photos: Hong Kong unrest
PHOTO: ANTHONY WALLACE/AFP/Getty Images
Protesters use a catapult to fire bricks at the police from inside the Hong Kong Polytechnic University on November 17.
A woman tries to hold back riot police from approaching the Hong Kong University in Hong Kong on Saturday.
Photos: Hong Kong unrest
PHOTO: Ng Han Guan/AP
A woman tries to hold back riot police from approaching the Hong Kong University in Hong Kong on Saturday.
Protesters train to throw Molotov cocktails into a swimming pool on the campus of the Hong Kong Polytechnic University on November 14.
Photos: Hong Kong unrest
PHOTO: Miguel Candela/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock
Protesters train to throw Molotov cocktails into a swimming pool on the campus of the Hong Kong Polytechnic University on November 14.