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Can the US consumer keep compensating for declines in the manufacturing sector?

It’s a question that will once again drive markets on Tuesday, which features the release of US consumer confidence data for September.

What’s happening: The University of Michigan’s preliminary survey for September showed a small rebound in consumer confidence compared to August. Morgan Stanley expects the Conference Board data out Tuesday to show a similar trend, though a Reuters poll of economists predicts a slight decline. Either way, the fresh data — which arrives at 10 a.m. ET — could be a market mover, especially for investors looking to assess the impact of the US-China trade war.

The scene: A global manufacturing recession is feeding fears of slower economic growth, increasing attention on levels of consumer spending and the relative health of the services sector. This data release matters more now than it did one year ago.

Should the data surprise to the upside, riskier assets could rally. But globally, storm clouds remain.

See Germany: The country’s Ifo Business Climate Index for September released Tuesday showed a small increase, likely reflecting the European Central Bank’s recent announcement of further monetary easing. But the index remains depressed, and the German economy still probably entered a recession this quarter, according to analysts.

There are also signs of weakness in services, based on Purchasing Managers’ Index data released in Europe on Monday. While manufacturing continued its downward trajectory, “the real problem came from the worrying declines in the services sectors in Germany and France, which had previously been the beacon of hope,” according to Deutsche Bank. Watch this space.

Get ready for the second largest IPO of the year

After one false start, Anheuser-Busch InBev (BUD) is set to pull off the second largest public offering of 2019.

The brewer behind Budweiser and Stella Artois said Tuesday that it will list stock in its Asia business in Hong Kong at $3.44 per share. That should allow the company to raise about $5 billion.

For the year, the IPO will fall behind only Uber, which raised $8.1 billion via its offering in May.

Remember: AB InBev’s Hong Kong listing was once poised to raise $9.8 billion. But the company scrapped that plan in July, citing market conditions, before resurrecting the IPO earlier this month.

The listing now excludes Budweiser APAC’s Australia operations, which it will unload to Japanese rival Asahi for $11.3 billion.

Big picture: “Budweiser APAC’s IPO is a big win for the Hong Kong Stock Exchange,” per my CNN Business colleagues Sherisse Pham and Laure He. “The bourse has been battered by a months-long political crisis, the ongoing US-China trade war and slowing consumption in China. The Hang Seng has dropped nearly 8% in the past three months.”

Hong Kong unrest is a global financial concern

A fresh report from Capital Economics makes an interesting point: as the United Kingdom battles an uncertain future on Brexit, it also faces geopolitical risks from Hong Kong.

“While most countries have very limited exposure to Hong Kong’s banking sector, the UK stands out like a sore thumb,” wrote Andrew Wishart, the research firm’s UK economist. Banks headquartered in the United Kingdom — such as HSBC and Standard Chartered — have outstanding claims on counterparties in Hong Kong to the tune of £426 billion, or 16% of the UK’s GDP, he points out.

That doesn’t mean that instability in Hong Kong will destabilize the UK’s financial sector, as bank loans look reasonably safe. But it’s a good reminder that the political situation in the city has ramifications for the global financial system.

Up next

AutoZone (AZO) and Blackberry (BB) report earnings before US markets open. Nike (NKE) follows after the close.

Also today:

  • The S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index for July arrives at 9 a.m. ET.
  • US consumer confidence data for September will post at 10 a.m. ET.

Coming tomorrow: Investors await data on US new home sales for August.