First things first: The theme song of the week is from the television show Who’s the Boss starring Tony Danza.
Poll of the week: A new Quinnipiac University poll finds that 76% of New York City voters don’t want Mayor Bill de Blasio, a Democrat, to run for president in 2020. Only 18% do want him to run in 2020.
The numbers aren’t much better among Democrats in the city. A sky high 73% don’t want him running for president in 2020. Just 21% do.
What’s the point: For the last few months, de Blasio has made noise about running for president. He’s visited the early states of Iowa and New Hampshire. He’s waded into national debates such as the border wall. To put it succinctly, The New York Times asked and answered its own question on de Blasio: “Is de Blasio Running for President? Sure Looks Like It.”
De Blasio could enter and knock everybody’s socks off. Stranger things have happened. But let’s be real: de Blasio would come into the race with some of the worst numbers I’ve ever seen for a potential presidential candidate before entering the race.
Previously, I’ve looked at how Democrats are liked in their respective home states, the idea being that those who know these candidates best are an early gauge on how voters nationally will like them once they get to know them better. Sen. Elizabeth Warren doesn’t do well on this metric, but de Blasio makes Warren look downright beloved by Bay Staters compared to how New Yorkers feel about him.
New Yorkers want no part of de Blasio 2020. The high percentage of New York City Democrats who don’t want him to run matches the vast majority of New York State Democrats who said they would be unhappy with him as the nominee. De Blasio was the only Democrat tested by Marist College in a poll earlier this year in which a majority of Democrats – 65% – said they’d be unhappy about if he were the Democratic 2020 nominee. Quinnipiac found he was the only potential 2020 Democratic contender with a negative net favorability among Democrats in the state of New York.
It doesn’t get better for de Blasio outside of New York.
De Blasio was the only Democrat asked about in March by Monmouth University who had a negative net favorability score among Democrats nationally. To his credit, de Blasio did manage to score 1% in the poll when Democrats were asked who their top preference was for the 2020 nomination. While low, he did beat out a number of others who got less than 1%, like New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand and Washington Gov. Jay Inslee.
Iowa, home to the first contest in the 2020 primary season, hasn’t been much kinder to de Blasio. It’s not just that he got stuck in a snowstorm there. Our CNN poll revealed that he had the lowest net favorability rating of any Democrat inquired about who is either running or is currently contemplating a run for president. Unlike that Monmouth national poll, de Blasio was the first or second choice of 0% of Democrats for the 2020 nomination in Iowa.
Poll numbers, of course, are not the only way to judge the seriousness of a political bid. De Blasio is mayor of the largest city in the country. He won a second term for mayor rather easily less than two years ago.
But just reflect on what the polls are telling us at this moment. Candidates who many take far less seriously – such as spiritual author Marianne Williamson and businessman Andrew Yang – have better ratings than de Blasio. His predecessor as mayor of New York, Michael Bloomberg, decided not to run in 2020 when faced with similar numbers. Unlike de Blasio, Bloomberg has a billion dollar fortune that he could have spent to change voters’ minds.
If de Blasio ultimately decides to run and comes anywhere close to the nomination, he’ll have earned it through really good campaigning. He starts off with pretty much no base of support.