The market is rallying this year. But investors may be ignoring a few risks that could bring trouble in the year ahead.
Liz Ann Sonders, the chief investment strategist for Charles Schwab (SCHW), is concerned that the impact of last year’s corporate tax cuts will fade throughout 2019. Analysts are already forecasting that earnings for the first quarter will be lower than they were a year ago.
What’s not clear is whether investors have already accounted for the expected downturn. They might have priced in a drop in profit last December, when the Dow and S&P 500 plunged 9%. But there’s also a chance that this year’s big market rebound — both indexes have gained 9% so far in 2019 — is a sign that investors are too easily brushing off any macro concerns about the economy.
Sonders thinks a so-called earnings recession — two straight quarters of year-over-year profit declines — is possible.
That’s not something that the market is forecasting right now. But she believes an earnings recession is more likely than a full-blown economic downturn.