Venezuela crisis: Putin’s new Cold War on America’s doorstep?
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Russian President Vladimir Putin (R) shakes hands with his Venezuelan counterpart Nicolas Maduro during a meeting at the Novo-Ogaryovo state residence outside Moscow on December 5, 2018. (Photo by MAXIM SHEMETOV / POOL / AFP) (Photo credit should read MAXIM SHEMETOV/AFP/Getty Images)
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The crisis in Venezuela appears to be shaping up like a Cold War-style confrontation: The Kremlin is throwing its support behind embattled Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, while Washington backs Juan Guaido, the self-proclaimed interim president.
The story at first glance seems to have all the elements of a spy thriller. In recent days, rumors have swirled about Russian mercenaries, massive bullion shipments and murky assassination plots.
Maduro has cast himself as a latter-day Fidel Castro in this drama. In an interview with Russia’s state-owned news agency RIA-Novosti, Maduro hinted at a US-backed attempt on his life, saying, “Without a doubt, Donald Trump gave the order to kill me, told the Colombian government, the mafia of Colombia to kill me.”
That sounded like an episode ripped from one of the CIA’s failed plots to kill the Cuban leader. And the crisis carries echoes of the Cuban Missile Crisis: Late last year, Russian bombers capable of delivering nuclear weapons flew to Venezuela, signaling that Russian President Vladimir Putin was willing to play in America’s backyard.
So are we about to watch a Netflix-era remake of the 1961 Bay of Pigs invasion? Is Venezuela another arena for proxy conflict between Russia and the United States, much like the way Moscow and Washington back opposing sides in the Syrian civil war?
Certainly, Maduro’s conspiracy theories – and his language about resisting American neocolonialism – are reminiscent of the old contest between the US and the USSR in Latin America. But Russia is not backing his government in Venezuela to spread the ideology of Marxism. For starters, Moscow sees Venezuela in large part as a business proposition.
Russia’s state-controlled oil company Rosneft has been a major backer of Maduro’s government, and Russia and Rosneft have provided billions in loans and lines of credit for cash-strapped Venezuela.
Venezuelan state oil company PDVSA is covering almost all of those debts with shipments of oil. In a research paper published last year, analyst Julia Gurganus noted that Venezuela “has relied on Rosneft for prepayments of future oil deliveries to meet its financial commitments and to market physical volumes of Venezuelan crude to refiners in the United States and other countries.”
But in addition to Moscow’s economic bet on Maduro, there’s a geopolitical dimension to Russia’s interest in keeping the president in power. Russian state television in recent days has cast the Venezuela crisis in terms of US-Russian confrontation, sometimes comparing Guaido and the Venezuelan opposition to Ukraine’s pro-democratic Maidan revolution in 2014 or to the Arab Spring uprising that, among other things, toppled longtime Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi.
Photos: In photos: Venezuela in crisis
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Supporters of Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaido wave a Venezuelan flag as they wait for him to make an appearance in the country's capital of Caracas on Monday, March 4.
Photos: In photos: Venezuela in crisis
Carlos Jasso/REUTERS
Guaido greets supporters upon arriving at a Caracas airport on March 4. He crossed the border to Colombia in late February before embarking on a South American tour, meeting the presidents of Colombia, Brazil, Paraguay and Ecuador, along with US Vice President Mike Pence. By doing so, Guaido ignored a travel ban imposed on him by the country's Supreme Court.
Photos: In photos: Venezuela in crisis
Martin Mejia/AP
Guaido shakes hands with Pence in Bogota, Colombia, on Monday, February 25. The room was filled with humanitarian aid destined for Venezuela. Guaido's wife, Fabiana Rosales, is pictured at left.
Photos: In photos: Venezuela in crisis
Luis Robayo/AFP/Getty Images
Demonstrators clash with Venezuelan soldiers at the Simon Bolivar International Bridge in Cucuta, Colombia, on Saturday, February 23.
Photos: In photos: Venezuela in crisis
Yuri Cortez/AFP/Getty Images
Supporters of President Maduro take part in a march in Caracas on February 23.
Photos: In photos: Venezuela in crisis
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Guaido supporters take part in a march in Caracas on February 23. Venezuelan security forces fired tear gas and rubber bullets to disperse a crowd demanding to cross the Venezuela-Colombia border, which was ordered closed by Maduro.
Photos: In photos: Venezuela in crisis
Rodrigo Abd/AP
Demonstrators push a bus that was set on fire during clashes with the Venezuelan National Guard in Urena, Venezuela, on February 23.
Photos: In photos: Venezuela in crisis
Yuri Cortez/AFP/Getty Images
Maduro waves the national flag during a pro-government march in Caracas on February 23. During the rally at the Venezuelan capital, Maduro told supporters he is breaking all diplomatic relations with Colombia and is calling for its ambassadors and consuls to leave Venezuela. Maduro recently began a second term after a 2018 vote that his political opposition and many in the international community denounced as a sham.
Photos: In photos: Venezuela in crisis
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People attempt to salvage packages from a truck loaded with humanitarian aid after it was set ablaze on a bridge between Cucuta, Colombia, and Urena, Venezuela, on February 23.
Photos: In photos: Venezuela in crisis
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Venezuelan opposition supporters protested in Caracas on Tuesday, February 12, calling on Maduro to let humanitarian aid into the economically crippled country.
Photos: In photos: Venezuela in crisis
Ariana Cubillos/AP
Guaido addresses the crowd in Caracas on February 12.
Photos: In photos: Venezuela in crisis
Ariana Cubillos/AP
A man wearing a Venezuelan flag sits on a traffic light during the demonstration in Caracas on February 12.
Photos: In photos: Venezuela in crisis
Marco Bello/Getty Images
Guaido waves to supporters during the rally in Caracas on February 2.
Photos: In photos: Venezuela in crisis
Fernando Llano/AP
An anti-government protester wears glasses with a Venezuelan flag motif at the demonstration in Caracas on February 2.
Photos: In photos: Venezuela in crisis
Rodrigo Abd/AP
Protesters gather for the Caracas rally on February 2.
Photos: In photos: Venezuela in crisis
Yuri Cortez/AFP/Getty Images
Maduro supporters gather in Caracas on February 2.
Photos: In photos: Venezuela in crisis
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Opposition demonstrators protest against Maduro's government on Wednesday, January 30.
Photos: In photos: Venezuela in crisis
Marcelo Garcia/Miraflores Presidential Press/AP
In this handout photo released by the Miraflores Presidential Press Office, Maduro flashes a "V for victory" hand gesture after arriving at the Fort Tiuna military base in Caracas on January 30.
Photos: In photos: Venezuela in crisis
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Members of the National Police line up to guard the entrance of Venezuela's Central University in Caracas during an anti-government protest on January 30.
Photos: In photos: Venezuela in crisis
Ariana Cubillos/AP
Guaido speaks to reporters in Caracas on January 30. The United States and more than a dozen other countries have recognized Guaido as Venezuela's legitimate ruler.
Photos: In photos: Venezuela in crisis
Ignacio Marin/Bloomberg via Getty Images
A Maduro mural is seen in the Petare slum of Caracas on Tuesday, January 29.
Photos: In photos: Venezuela in crisis
Yuri Cortez/AFP/Getty Images
Guaido listens to deputy Rafael Veloz during a session at the National Assembly in Caracas on January 29. The Assembly met to debate a legal framework for creating a transitional government and calling new elections. Simultaneously, Venezuela's attorney general asked the Supreme Court to freeze Guaido's assets and bar him from leaving the country.
Photos: In photos: Venezuela in crisis
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A view of the National Assembly building in Caracas on January 29.
Photos: In photos: Venezuela in crisis
Federico Parra/AFP/Getty Images
The president of Venezuela's Supreme Court, Maikel Moreno, speaks at a news conference in Caracas on January 29.
Photos: In photos: Venezuela in crisis
Luis Robayo/AFP/Getty Images
A man pumps fuel at a gas station in Caracas on January 29. A day earlier, the United States announced sanctions against Venezuela's state oil company, Petroleos de Venezuela, S.A.
Photos: In photos: Venezuela in crisis
Federico Parra/AFP/Getty Images
Supporters of Venezuela's opposition hold up letters that read "Justice" at a rally to hear Guaido speak in Caracas on Saturday, January 26.
Photos: In photos: Venezuela in crisis
Luis Robayo/AFP/Getty Images
Guaido speaks to reporters after attending Mass in Caracas on Sunday, January 27.
Photos: In photos: Venezuela in crisis
Luis Robayo/AFP/Getty Images
Government supporters in Caracas hold a rally in support of Maduro on January 26.
Photos: In photos: Venezuela in crisis
Yuri Cortez/AFP/Getty Images
Maduro holds a news conference in Caracas on Friday, January 25. The Venezuelan strongman has accused Guaido and the United States of trying to orchestrate a coup against him.
Photos: In photos: Venezuela in crisis
Carlos Becerra/Bloomberg via Getty Images
Portraits of former Venezuelan leaders Simon Bolivar and Hugo Chavez hover in the background as Venezuelan Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino Lopez, bottom left, addresses a news conference in Caracas on Thursday, January 24. Venezuela's top military officials swore their allegiance to Maduro after other nations recognized Guaido as head of state.
Photos: In photos: Venezuela in crisis
Rayner Pena/picture alliance via Getty Images
A man wrapped in a Venezuelan flag raises his arms in front of security forces during anti-government protests in Caracas on Wednesday, January 23.
Photos: In photos: Venezuela in crisis
Adriana Loureiro/REUTERS
Opposition supporters in Caracas protest Maduro on January 23.
Photos: In photos: Venezuela in crisis
Manaure Quintero/REUTERS
Opposition supporters react to tear gas as they take part in the Caracas rally on January 23. Sporadic clashes erupted, but Maduro's military response to the protests seemed more measured than in the past.
Photos: In photos: Venezuela in crisis
Manaure Quintero/REUTERS
Police secure an area in Caracas on January 23.
Photos: In photos: Venezuela in crisis
Manaure Quintero/REUTERS
A National Police officer fires rubber bullets in Caracas.
Photos: In photos: Venezuela in crisis
Federico Parra/AFP/Getty Images
People raise their hands to show solidarity with Guaido, who was declaring himself interim president on January 23.
Photos: In photos: Venezuela in crisis
Miguel Gutierrez/EPA-EFE
A wounded protester in Caracas on January 23.
Photos: In photos: Venezuela in crisis
Rayner Pena/picture alliance via Getty Images
Security forces stand in a street full of stones after clashing with demonstrators in Caracas.
Photos: In photos: Venezuela in crisis
Luis Robayo/AFP/Getty Images
Maduro, speaking to a crowd of supporters at the Miraflores Palace in Caracas, holds up a document that says his government is breaking off diplomatic ties with the United States. "We cannot accept the invasive policies of the empire, the United States, the policies of Donald Trump," he said to cheers from the crowd on January 23. "Venezuela is a land of liberators."
Photos: In photos: Venezuela in crisis
Federico Parra/AFP/Getty Images
A wounded protester shows his back as riot police clashed with opposition demonstrators in Caracas on January 23.
Photos: In photos: Venezuela in crisis
Luis Robayo/AFP/Getty Images
A man walks by a bus that had been set on fire in Caracas.
Photos: In photos: Venezuela in crisis
Federico Parra/AFP/Getty Images
An opposition demonstrator runs with a tear-gas canister on January 23.
Photos: In photos: Venezuela in crisis
Miguel Gutierrez/EPA-EFE
Guaido greets a crowd in Caracas on January 23.
Photos: In photos: Venezuela in crisis
Roman Camacho/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images
Protesters set up barricades to block a road in Caracas.
Photos: In photos: Venezuela in crisis
Rayner Pena/picture alliance via Getty Images
A National Police officer fires tear gas at demonstrators in Caracas while another shoots the scene with a cell phone.
Photos: In photos: Venezuela in crisis
Edilzon Gamez/Getty Images
Demonstrators in Caracas protest Maduro's government.
Photos: In photos: Venezuela in crisis
Roman Camacho/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images
Venezuelan banknotes were thrown on the ground during the Maduro protests on January 23.
Russia spreads its global reach
The rhetoric mirrors official thinking in Russia, where the Kremlin routinely accuses the US of illegitimately pursuing a policy of “regime change” or “color revolutions” aimed at toppling Washington’s opponents around the globe.
“Going back to the days of [former US President] George W. Bush, color revolutions are a neuralgic issue for the Kremlin,” said Andrew Weiss, vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “And they have no shortage of people inside the Russian government who spin elaborate conspiracy theories or see indicators that the US goes around the world under the convenient flag of democracy removing regimes it doesn’t like.”
Weiss noted another rationale for Russia’s support for Maduro: Showcasing Moscow’s global reach.
“There is also a big thread in Russia’s behavior in Latin America that is aimed at rattling the United States and making Russia’s role seem larger than it actually is,” he said. “It’s part of a headgame … a way of saying, ‘We can cause trouble in America’s backyard.’”
Venezuela is a long way from Russia’s borders, and Moscow no longer has any military bases in the Western Hemisphere. But that has done little to discourage conspiracy theories.
Maduro, for instance, did not halt speculation that Russian private military contractors may have augmented his security detail when he said that he had “no comment” about whether Russian private security guards might be providing him protection.
Russia certainly has a track record of sending private military contractors to advance its foreign-policy aims. The Russian government has never fully and officially acknowledged the existence of private military companies such as Wagner, the shadowy Russian firm the US Treasury has sanctioned for recruiting mercenaries to fight alongside pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine. However, the existence of the group became more difficult to conceal after paramilitary contractors were killed in US airstrikes in Syria.
But Konstantin Kosachev, a Russian senator who heads the foreign affairs committee of Russia’s Federation Council, or upper house of parliament, cast doubt on Russians being brought in to protect Maduro.
“I don’t think that there will be a request directly for protection by Russia,” Kosachev told RIA-Novosti, adding that the army is on the side of the current president, and that Maduro himself expressed confidence that he was well defended.
