Now playing
02:17
The Trump effect on oil
Now playing
04:22
Levi's CEO has message for Mitch McConnell
Elon Musk's Neuralink says this monkey is playing Pong with its mind
From Neuralink/Youtube
Elon Musk's Neuralink says this monkey is playing Pong with its mind
Now playing
01:41
Elon Musk's company says this monkey is playing Pong with his mind
CNN
Now playing
02:36
The truth behind Covid-19 vaccines for sale on the dark web
Heinz ketchup packets are shown in New York on Monday, August 22, 2005. H.J. Heinz Co., the world's biggest ketchup maker, said first-quarter profit fell 19 percent on expenses to cut jobs and sell businesses.  (Photo by Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg/Getty Images
Heinz ketchup packets are shown in New York on Monday, August 22, 2005. H.J. Heinz Co., the world's biggest ketchup maker, said first-quarter profit fell 19 percent on expenses to cut jobs and sell businesses. (Photo by Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
Now playing
01:53
Restaurants face a nationwide ketchup packet shortage
CNN
Now playing
03:53
Norwegian Cruise Line CEO to CDC: We want to be treated fairly
Getty Images
Now playing
02:18
This airplane-shaped bag is selling for more than some actual planes
A medical worker prepares to administer a dose of the AstraZeneca vaccine in Belgrade, Serbia, Tuesday, March 23, 2021. American federal health officials say results from a U.S. trial of AstraZeneca's COVID-19 vaccine may have included "outdated information" and that could mean the company provided an incomplete view of efficacy data. (AP Photo/Darko Vojinovic)
Darko Vojinovic/AP
A medical worker prepares to administer a dose of the AstraZeneca vaccine in Belgrade, Serbia, Tuesday, March 23, 2021. American federal health officials say results from a U.S. trial of AstraZeneca's COVID-19 vaccine may have included "outdated information" and that could mean the company provided an incomplete view of efficacy data. (AP Photo/Darko Vojinovic)
Now playing
03:46
These are all the complications AstraZeneca's vaccine has faced
A driver rides his car in front of the Lyft Drivers Hub in Los Angeles, California, March 29, 2019. Ride-hailing company Lyft made its Initial Public Offering (IPO) on the Nasdaq Stock Market on March 29th. (Photo by Apu Gomes/AFP/Getty Images)
Apu Gomes/AFP/Getty Images
A driver rides his car in front of the Lyft Drivers Hub in Los Angeles, California, March 29, 2019. Ride-hailing company Lyft made its Initial Public Offering (IPO) on the Nasdaq Stock Market on March 29th. (Photo by Apu Gomes/AFP/Getty Images)
Now playing
04:55
Lyft co-founder: Supporting voter access is important for business
Citigroup Chairman Richard Parsons delivers remarks on the US economy at the New York State Bar Association meetings in New York, January 28, 2009. Troubled US banking giant Citigroup last week named Parsons as its new chairman, the longtime top executive at media giant Time Warner, to steer it through its most challenging period.  AFP PHOTO / Emmanuel Dunand (Photo credit should read EMMANUEL DUNAND/AFP via Getty Images)
EMMANUEL DUNAND/AFP/AFP via Getty Images
Citigroup Chairman Richard Parsons delivers remarks on the US economy at the New York State Bar Association meetings in New York, January 28, 2009. Troubled US banking giant Citigroup last week named Parsons as its new chairman, the longtime top executive at media giant Time Warner, to steer it through its most challenging period. AFP PHOTO / Emmanuel Dunand (Photo credit should read EMMANUEL DUNAND/AFP via Getty Images)
Now playing
02:47
Dick Parsons: Georgia law is a bald-faced attempt to suppress Black vote
Resturant Yurkevcih Pkg 1
CNN
Resturant Yurkevcih Pkg 1
Now playing
02:55
Restaurants are still struggling, but see hope on the horizon
WASHINGTON, DC - SEPTEMBER 16:  Patrick Soon-Shiong, chairman and CEO of the Institute for Advanced Health, participates in a discussion at the Bipartisan Policy Center, September 16, 2014 in Washington, DC.  The Bipartisan Policy Center released a report titled Innovative Strategies from America's Business Leaders.  (Photo by Mark Wilson/Getty Images)
Mark Wilson/Getty Images North America/Getty Images
WASHINGTON, DC - SEPTEMBER 16: Patrick Soon-Shiong, chairman and CEO of the Institute for Advanced Health, participates in a discussion at the Bipartisan Policy Center, September 16, 2014 in Washington, DC. The Bipartisan Policy Center released a report titled Innovative Strategies from America's Business Leaders. (Photo by Mark Wilson/Getty Images)
Now playing
04:04
Patrick Soon-Shiong: We have to recognize racism and 'break it'
ATLANTA, GA - MARCH 03: Demonstrators stand outside of the Georgia Capitol building, to oppose the HB 531 bill on March 3, 2021 in Atlanta, Georgia. HB 531 will add controversial voting restrictions to the state's upcoming elections including restricting ballot drop boxes, requiring an ID requirement for absentee voting and limiting weekend early voting days. The Georgia House passed the bill and will send it to the Senate. (Photo by Megan Varner/Getty Images)
Megan Varner/Getty Images
ATLANTA, GA - MARCH 03: Demonstrators stand outside of the Georgia Capitol building, to oppose the HB 531 bill on March 3, 2021 in Atlanta, Georgia. HB 531 will add controversial voting restrictions to the state's upcoming elections including restricting ballot drop boxes, requiring an ID requirement for absentee voting and limiting weekend early voting days. The Georgia House passed the bill and will send it to the Senate. (Photo by Megan Varner/Getty Images)
Now playing
02:24
Coca Cola, Delta Airlines strike back at Georgia voting laws
Now playing
03:08
'I want women to be as rich as humanly possible': Meet TikTok's wealth coaches
Now playing
05:41
NFTs have completely transformed these digital artists' lives
P&G
Now playing
01:45
This new P&G ad confronts stereotypes against Black Americans
(CNN Business) —  

Six months ago, OPEC agreed to pump more oil to prevent prices spiking to $100 a barrel. Now the oil cartel is talking about cutting output to stop prices crashing below $50.

Members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will meet in Vienna on Thursday. They’ll discuss how to stabilize the world market after US crude prices plunged 22% in November, marking the the worst month since the global financial crisis in October 2008.

US crude oil is now trading around $53 a barrel, down from a four-year high above $76 in early October. Brent crude has plunged to $62 from above $86.

Led by Saudi Arabia, OPEC will also seek Russian backing for supply restraint to put a floor underneath prices. The alliance between OPEC and the world’s second largest producer dates back to 2016, when they first agreed to cut production to halt a damaging collapse.

The International Energy Agency warned last month that supply is expected to exceed demand through 2019. In its November market report, OPEC said demand for its oil next year would be about 1.1 million barrels a day less than in 2018, and 1.4 million below current OPEC production.

But Saudi Arabia’s approach to this week’s meeting has been complicated by intense public pressure from President Donald Trump on the kingdom to allow prices to fall even further.

“Hopefully OPEC will be keeping oil flows as is, not restricted,” Trump tweeted on Wednesday. “The world does not want to see, or need, higher oil prices!”

Here are three possible outcomes from the Vienna meeting:

1. A big cut

Analysts say this is the most likely outcome, despite the pressure from President Trump.

Eurasia Group said in a report published last week that it expects an agreement by OPEC and Russia to cut a combined 1.5 million barrels a day from the market.

“While discussions will not be easy, Saudi Arabia will succeed in rallying the OPEC and non-OPEC group to decrease output,” it said.

The kingdom said last month it would cut 500,000 barrels a day from its production in December. It pumped 10.6 million barrels of oil in October, before going even higher in November.

“A ramp-up of Saudi production to 11.2 million barrels per day is probably a tool used by Riyadh to press for a deal in Vienna, as a sign of its ability to bolster production compared to the other OPEC countries that are more constrained,” said Eurasia Group.

2. A more modest cut

But some analysts say Saudi Arabia may seek a modest cut to try to balance the demand from Trump for lower prices with the interests of OPEC members.

Last month, Trump tweeted a “thank you to Saudi Arabia,” for keeping oil prices down, only a day after he signaled he would not take strong action against the kingdom over the murder of Jamal Khashoggi.

The international pressure on Saudi Arabia remains intense. Following a classified CIA briefing, US senator Bob Corker said Tuesday he had no doubt that Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman had ordered and monitored the killing of Khashoggi.

However, a cut of one million barrels a day or less may not be enough to stabilize a market that is awash with oil.

That would leave the market “fairly disappointed,” said Warren Patterson, commodities strategist at ING. “It likely [won’t] be enough to balance the market over the first half of 2019.”

Iran is still selling crude despite sanctions on its oil industry. The United States surprised OPEC and other producers by granting waivers to eight countries to continue buying Iranian oil after it reimposed sanctions with effect from early November.

At the time, Iran was still pumping up to 1.5 million barrels of crude oil.

And the United States is producing at record levels. It recently surpassed Russia and Saudi Arabia for the first time since 1973 as the world’s largest producer.

3. No production cut

Analysts believe this is the least likely outcome. For the past few weeks, OPEC members have been rallying support to trim supply.

OPEC Secretary General Mohammed Barkindo told CNN Business last month that members were “working the phones” to ensure a “consensus” before Vienna.

Russian officials had signaled that it was too early for a cut. But there are signs Moscow may now be on board.

Oil prices jumped on Monday following reports of an agreement at the G20 summit between Russia and Saudi Arabia to continue their partnership into 2019. President Vladimir Putin and bin Salman greeted each other warmly with a high five and big smiles on Friday.

Most OPEC members would like higher prices to balance their budgets. In Saudi Arabia, oil accounts for about 70% of government revenue and the energy sector makes up 40% of the economy.

An agreement to maintain production at current levels is “highly unlikely given the high break evens most governments need, especially in the Gulf,” said Mohamed Bardastani, senior economist for the Middle East at Oxford Economics.