Hurricane Michael isn’t a truly “natural disaster.”
Neither was Harvey in Houston.
Nor Maria in Puerto Rico.
Yet we continue to use that term.
Doing so – especially in the era of climate change – is misleading if not dangerous, according to several disaster experts and climate scientists I reached by phone and on Twitter.
“The phrase ‘natural disaster’ is an attempt to lay blame where blame really doesn’t rest,” said Kerry A. Emanuel, a professor of atmospheric science at MIT and a global expert on hurricanes.
Photos: In pictures: Hurricane Michael's trail of destruction
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President Donald Trump, first lady Melania Trump and Florida Gov. Rick Scott tour a Lynn Haven, Florida, neighborhood that was affected by Hurricane Michael.
Photos: In pictures: Hurricane Michael's trail of destruction
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Lisa Patrick is overcome with emotion as she visits the remains of her home in Mexico Beach, Florida, on Monday, October 15.
Photos: In pictures: Hurricane Michael's trail of destruction
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The President and first lady hand out bottles of water to people in Lynn Haven on October 15.
Photos: In pictures: Hurricane Michael's trail of destruction
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The Trumps tour damage in Lynn Haven.
Photos: In pictures: Hurricane Michael's trail of destruction
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President Trump flies over the devastation in Mexico Beach.
Photos: In pictures: Hurricane Michael's trail of destruction
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Mexico Beach residents make their way across a washed-out road on Friday, October 12.
Photos: In pictures: Hurricane Michael's trail of destruction
Bronte Wittpenn/The Tampa Bay Times/AP
An aerial view shows the devastation in Mexico Beach on October 12. The small beach resort saw the brunt of Michael, authorities say.
Photos: In pictures: Hurricane Michael's trail of destruction
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Dough Shelby looks out at the destruction from his house in Mexico Beach on October 12.
Photos: In pictures: Hurricane Michael's trail of destruction
Bronte Wittpenn/The Tampa Bay Times/AP
Little remains of a burned home destroyed by the hurricane in Mexico Beach on October 12.
Photos: In pictures: Hurricane Michael's trail of destruction
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Benny Hobson sits in his recliner on Thursday, October 11, after losing the front wall of his house in Panama City, Florida.
Photos: In pictures: Hurricane Michael's trail of destruction
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Storm-damaged boats are piled up in Panama City on October 11.
Photos: In pictures: Hurricane Michael's trail of destruction
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Elizabeth Hanson, right, and her daughter Emaly hug their neighbor Cindy Clark on October 11. The hurricane heavily damaged their homes in Mexico Beach.
Photos: In pictures: Hurricane Michael's trail of destruction
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Collector cars are covered in debris in Panama City on October 11.
Photos: In pictures: Hurricane Michael's trail of destruction
Joe Raedle/Getty Images
Tom Bailey walks his bike past a home that was carried across a road and slammed up against a condo complex in Mexico Beach.
Photos: In pictures: Hurricane Michael's trail of destruction
Gerald Herbert/AP
Joyce Fox stands in front of her heavily damaged home in Panama City on October 11.
Photos: In pictures: Hurricane Michael's trail of destruction
Gerald Herbert/AP
A boat sits amid debris in Mexico Beach on October 11.
Photos: In pictures: Hurricane Michael's trail of destruction
David Goldman/AP
Kylie Strampe holds her 4-month-old daughter, Lola, while surveying the damage in Callaway, Florida, on October 11.
Photos: In pictures: Hurricane Michael's trail of destruction
Joe Raedle/Getty Images
Trees snapped by Michael's winds are seen in Mexico Beach on October 11.
Photos: In pictures: Hurricane Michael's trail of destruction
Joe Raedle/Getty Images
Amanda Logsdon faces a heavy cleanup task at her Panama City house on October 11.
Photos: In pictures: Hurricane Michael's trail of destruction
Gerald Herbert/AP
Rescue personnel search Mexico Beach.
Photos: In pictures: Hurricane Michael's trail of destruction
David Goldman/AP
A man walks through a damaged store in Springfield, Florida.
Photos: In pictures: Hurricane Michael's trail of destruction
Chris O'Meara/AP
An aerial photo shows a destroyed boat in Mexico Beach on October 11.
Photos: In pictures: Hurricane Michael's trail of destruction
Dianne Gallagher/CNN
A tree sits on top of a Panama City mobile home. Almost all the residents of the mobile-home park rode out the storm. All homes were damaged except one.
Photos: In pictures: Hurricane Michael's trail of destruction
Joe Raedle/Getty Images
Kathy Coy stands among what is left of her home in Panama City. She said she was in the home when it was blown apart and is thankful to be alive.
Photos: In pictures: Hurricane Michael's trail of destruction
BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/Getty Images
The view from a Panama City hotel room that lost a wall in the storm.
Photos: In pictures: Hurricane Michael's trail of destruction
Gerald Herbert/AP
Firefighter Austin Schlarb performs a door-to-door search in Mexico Beach on October 11.
Photos: In pictures: Hurricane Michael's trail of destruction
JONATHAN BACHMAN/REUTERS
Damaged buildings are seen in Panama City on October 11.
Photos: In pictures: Hurricane Michael's trail of destruction
Douglas R. Clifford/Tampa Bay Times via AP
Debris is scattered in Mexico Beach early on October 11.
Photos: In pictures: Hurricane Michael's trail of destruction
Zachary T. Sampson/Tampa Bay Times via ZUMA Wire/Newscom
Wreckage is piled up in Mexico Beach, near where Michael made landfall.
Photos: In pictures: Hurricane Michael's trail of destruction
Zachary T. Sampson/Tampa Bay Times via ZUMA Wire/Newscom
Debris burns in Mexico Beach on October 11.
Photos: In pictures: Hurricane Michael's trail of destruction
Pedro Portal/AP
Haley Nelson inspects damage at her family properties in the Panama City area on Wednesday, October 10.
Photos: In pictures: Hurricane Michael's trail of destruction
Zachary T. Sampson/Tampa Bay Times via ZUMA Wire/Newscom
Cars are tossed among the debris in Mexico Beach.
Photos: In pictures: Hurricane Michael's trail of destruction
Gerald Herbert/AP
Kaylee O'Brian cries inside her Panama City home after several trees fell on it on October 10.
Photos: In pictures: Hurricane Michael's trail of destruction
Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post via Getty Images
Floodwaters overwhelm vehicles in Panama City on Wednesday, October 10.
Photos: In pictures: Hurricane Michael's trail of destruction
Gerald Herbert/AP
A storm chaser climbs into his vehicle to retrieve equipment after a hotel canopy collapsed in Panama City Beach on October 10.
Photos: In pictures: Hurricane Michael's trail of destruction
Eric Thayer/The New York Times/Redux
A helicopter circles a Panama City neighborhood in the storm's wake on October 10.
Photos: In pictures: Hurricane Michael's trail of destruction
Brendan Smialowski/AFP/Getty Images
A woman and her children wait near a destroyed gas station in Panama City on October 10.
Photos: In pictures: Hurricane Michael's trail of destruction
Jonathan Bachman/Reuters
A McDonald's sign is mangled in Panama City on October 10.
Photos: In pictures: Hurricane Michael's trail of destruction
Eric Thayer/The New York Times/Redux
Boats are left damaged in a Panama City marina on October 10.
Photos: In pictures: Hurricane Michael's trail of destruction
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People comfort each other outside an apartment building in Panama City.
Photos: In pictures: Hurricane Michael's trail of destruction
Dan Anderson/EPA/Rex/Shutterstock
People make their way through a building's wreckage in Panama City on October 10.
Photos: In pictures: Hurricane Michael's trail of destruction
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The powerful hurricane left houses battered in Panama City Beach.
Photos: In pictures: Hurricane Michael's trail of destruction
Joe Raedle/Getty Images
Phlomena Telker stands on the remains of her covered porch in Panama City.
Photos: In pictures: Hurricane Michael's trail of destruction
Douglas R. Clifford/Tampa Bay Times/TNS/Newscom
Boats are damaged at the Port St. Joe Marina in the Florida Panhandle.
Photos: In pictures: Hurricane Michael's trail of destruction
Carlo Allegri/Reuters
Lenora Adams evacuates a motel with her dog as the hurricane comes ashore in Panacea, Florida, on October 10.
Photos: In pictures: Hurricane Michael's trail of destruction
Joe Raedle/Getty Images
Rick Tesk, left, helps a business owner rescue his dogs from a damaged business in Panama City.
Photos: In pictures: Hurricane Michael's trail of destruction
Dan Anderson/EPA
Wrecked boats sit near a pier in Panama City.
Photos: In pictures: Hurricane Michael's trail of destruction
Chris O'Meara/AP
A resident of St. Marks, Florida, pulls a cooler out of the floodwaters near his home.
Photos: In pictures: Hurricane Michael's trail of destruction
Douglas R. Clifford/Cal Sport Media/Zuma Press
Pine trees litter a yard in Port St. Joe.
Photos: In pictures: Hurricane Michael's trail of destruction
Dirk Shadd/Cal Sport Media/Zuma Press
Streets begin to flood as high tide approaches in St. Petersburg, Florida, on October 10.
Photos: In pictures: Hurricane Michael's trail of destruction
Joe Raedle/Getty Images
Mike Lindsey stands in his Panama City antique shop after it was damaged by Hurricane Michael on October 10.
Photos: In pictures: Hurricane Michael's trail of destruction
Joe Raedle/Getty Images
Trees lie on top of a home in Panama City.
Photos: In pictures: Hurricane Michael's trail of destruction
Mark Wallheiser/Getty Images
Bo Lynn's Market is flooded in St. Marks on October 10.
Photos: In pictures: Hurricane Michael's trail of destruction
Carlo Allegri/Reuters
A truck drives along a road in Alligator Point, Florida, that had been washed out by the storm on October 10.
Photos: In pictures: Hurricane Michael's trail of destruction
Carlo Allegri/Reuters
Waves hit a house in Alligator Point on October 10.
Photos: In pictures: Hurricane Michael's trail of destruction
NASA/Shutterstock
The eye of the storm, as seen from the International Space Station on October 10.
Photos: In pictures: Hurricane Michael's trail of destruction
Gerald Herbert/AP
A woman checks on her vehicle after a hotel canopy collapsed in Panama City Beach.
Photos: In pictures: Hurricane Michael's trail of destruction
Mark Wallheiser/Getty Images
Mitchell Pope tries to salvage what he can from his mobile home in St. Marks.
Photos: In pictures: Hurricane Michael's trail of destruction
Gregg Pachkowski/PNJ.com/USA Today
This boat ran aground at Florida's Quietwater Beach.
Photos: In pictures: Hurricane Michael's trail of destruction
Brendan Farrington/AP
Jayden Morgan, 11, evacuates his home as water starts to flood his neighborhood in St. Marks.
Photos: In pictures: Hurricane Michael's trail of destruction
Devon Ravine/Northwest Florida Daily News via AP
A person takes pictures of the surf and fishing pier on Okaloosa Island in Fort Walton Beach, Florida.
Photos: In pictures: Hurricane Michael's trail of destruction
Gerald Herbert/AP
Emily Hindle lies on the floor at an evacuation shelter set up at a Panama City Beach high school on October 10.
Photos: In pictures: Hurricane Michael's trail of destruction
Joe Raedle/Getty Images
Kathy Eaton takes what she can from her Panama City Beach home as she tries to get out of the way of the storm on October 10.
Photos: In pictures: Hurricane Michael's trail of destruction
Jonathan Bachman/Reuters
Justin Davis, left, and Brock Mclean board up a business in Destin, Florida, on Tuesday, October 9.
Photos: In pictures: Hurricane Michael's trail of destruction
Chris O'Meara/AP
Krystal Day, left, leads a sandbag assembly line at the Old Port Cove restaurant in Ozello, Florida, on October 9.
Photos: In pictures: Hurricane Michael's trail of destruction
Mark Wallheiser/Getty Images
Workers scramble to store boats at Shields Marina in St. Marks.
It’s not about semantics, said Ksenia Chmutina, a lecturer at Loughborough University in the United Kingdom. She and colleagues issued a news release this year asking journalists to banish the phrase from our lexicon. “By blaming nature on disasters, we’re saying there is nothing we can do about this – we can’t do anything to reduce the risks. Which is not the case.”
So, what should we say instead?
And where, if not with nature, should we place the blame?
You have to consider climate change
There are essentially two big answers to the blame question.
One is climate change.
Humans are burning fossil fuels – coal, oil, gas – at an alarming rate, putting heat-trapping gases into the atmosphere. In this manner, we’ve raised global temperatures about 1 degree Celsius since the Industrial Revolution, according to a landmark report released this week by a UN organization, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The air is warmer, and so are the oceans. The storms that form in this now-changed environment are different than they were before.
“The best scientific info we have now is that the probabilities of these intense hurricanes – from the point of view of both wind and water – are going up in many places because of global warming,” Emanuel said.
Rain associated with these storms is getting more intense, he said, because “warmer air holds more water vapor than cooler air.” Sea levels are rising as the oceans warm and as land-based ice in the Arctic, for example,melts into the ocean – and that means more damage, and likely death, associated with storm surges and coastal flooding. Plus, hurricanes are expected to intensify more rapidly in a warming world, making them more difficult to forecast.
“There is a pretty strong consensus [among scientists] that the frequency of the high category events like Michael, in most parts of the world, should go up as a result of climate warming,” Emanuel said.
Hurricanes aren’t new. But storms like Hurricane Michael occur in the context of this macro trend. Ninety-seven percent of climate scientists agree that humans are driving global warming, according to a NASA summary of peer-reviewed science. And the sobering report the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change released this month says the world must cut emissions of carbon dioxide about in half by 2030 – a dozen years from now – and become carbon-neutral, meaning no net pollution of that heat-trapping gas, by 2050 in order to possibly meet the strictest global climate goals and avoid some of the very worst consequences of warming.
“The climate is changing, and that means that weather is impacted by the current state of the climate. There’s a human fingerprint on that,” said Kevin A. Reed, an assistant professor in the School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences at Stony Brook University. “So, to some extent, there’s a human fingerprint on individual weather events.”
Scientists are getting better at looking for human ‘fingerprints’
Increasingly, researchers like Reed are able to analyze how human-induced warming affects individual storms. This is somewhat new. (I wrote about the history in an article about the 2016 floods in Baton Rouge, Louisiana). And this “climate attribution” science helps the public answer questions about how climate change is making storms, heat waves, floods and the like different – and often more dangerous.
That’s a preliminary assessment Reed is following up with more research now. But the point is that we can’t pretend climate change is a distant threat, he said.
“Climate change is here now, and it’s impacting storms now,” he told me by phone. “The impacts of climate change are very, very real.”
Where people live also matters – as does preparedness
The other big answer to the blame question is much older – like back-to-Rousseau older. And that’s the fact that we humans don’t prepare well for hazards like floods and hurricanes. In doing so, we create risk.
“The hazard is a natural one, but you don’t get a disaster if there aren’t people/buildings in harm’s way,” Andrea Thompson, an associate editor at Scientific American, wrote on Twitter. “Climate change is a component, most clearly with sea level rise, but coastal population explosion means a lot more potential for disaster.”
Emanuel, the hurricane expert at MIT, says the global population exposed to hurricane risks has tripled since the 1970s as more people move toward coastal regions and hurricane-prone areas.
“The problem in the United States is that we not only stop adaptation but we’re actually engaged in what you might call a ‘negative adaptation’ to the risks posed by storms and climate change,” Emanuel said. “The government – both at the state and federal level – has strong policies in place that encourage people to live and build in risky places.”
Examples, he said, include the National Flood Insurance Program, which is funded by taxpayers, and state-level policies that put a cap on the amount people pay for flood insurance.
Even very simple changes to construction standards and zoning could make a difference in terms of preparedness, said Chmutina, the lecturer in the UK. Putting power outlets higher on walls, for instance, reduces the chance of power going out during a flood, she said. But largely, people and governments do not opt for these preventative measures because they’re slightly more expensive up-front, she said, even though some adaptations could save money and lives.
“When we’re saying this phrase, ‘natural disaster,’ we pretend we are not responsible for creating disaster,” she told me. “We blame everything on nature. We make nature responsible for disasters, and that is not the case.”
The philosopher Jean-Jacques Rousseau, she pointed out, famously made this point in the 1700s.
“[N]ature did not construct twenty thousand houses of six to seven stories there,” he wrote in a letter responding to debate about a deadly earthquake in Lisbon, Portugal. “[I]f the inhabitants of this great city had been more equally spread out and more lightly lodged, the damage would have been much less and perhaps of no account.”
What should we say instead?
OK, so if you concede that these disasters and their fallout are no longer truly “natural” (and never really were), then what’s the best term to use instead?
John Upton, a writer at Climate Central, suggested dropping the term “natural” in favor of just “disaster.”
Katharine Hayhoe, a climate scientist at Texas Tech, had a longer turn of phrase, suggesting that we call them “what used to be entirely natural disasters … now amplified or exacerbated by human-induced change.”
“I know it’s a mouthful,” she wrote on Twitter, “but I think it’s worth it, because it addresses the misconception and presents the facts, all in one.”
Reed, the Stony Brook professor, suggested simply “extreme events.”
The important thing, experts said, is that we humans accept some blame.
And then use that knowledge to prevent suffering associated with storms yet to come.
