Washington (CNN)Any list of endangered House incumbents this cycle will have Barbara Comstock's name at or near the top.
House Key Race Alert: Trump drag pulls Comstock's race toward Democrats
Comstock, a two-term GOP lawmaker representing the Virginia suburbs of Washington, DC, is facing a challenge from Democratic state Sen. Jennifer Wexton, who won a six-way primary earlier this month with 42% of the vote.
A new Monmouth University poll released Tuesday gives Wexton a 10-point advantage over Comstock in the district -- 49% to 39%.
Comstock's bid is complicated by President Donald Trump's standing in the district, which he lost to Hillary Clinton by 10 points in 2016. A majority of 10th district voters -- 53% - disapprove of the President's job performance, including 47% who say they strongly disapprove. That contrasts with just 24% of respondents who say they strongly approve of the job Trump is doing.
Resistance to Trump appears to be a motivating factor here, with 70% who oppose what the President is doing saying it is very important for them to cast a vote to express their feelings about him.
Comstock will need to demonstrate her independence from Trump to win over the large share of voters unhappy with his handling of the presidency. The most visible example of that is her clash with Trump at the White House in February over immigration reform when she said, "We don't need a government shutdown on this."
The 10th district, affluent and highly educated, has trended blue in recent elections. Mitt Romney edged out Barack Obama by a single point in 2012. In last year's Virginia gubernatorial contest, Democrat Ralph Northam bested Republican Ed Gillespie by 12 points.
Comstock's vote for the GOP tax reform measure might be a tough sell among some of the district's voters who could be hit hard by the changes to the deductibility of state and local taxes.
The Republican should have the resources to stay competitive through November, with $1.7 million in the bank as of late May. Wexton, meanwhile, had nearly $700,000 cash on hand at last check -- and should be able to raise more now that she's the party's nominee in a district that is a top pick-up opportunity for Democrats.
Race moves from Toss-Up to Lean Democratic