(CNN)The headline on Sean Hannity's website blared the news: "BLUE WAVE CRASHING: Poll Shows Americans Side with TRUMP on Economy, Security."
- Bedard notes lower in the piece that Democrats continue to hold a 40% to 33% edge on the generic congressional ballot question in the Zogby poll. The generic ballot, much more so than "who do you trust" questions, has historically been the best predictor of party gains or losses in congressional elections. And a 7-point Democratic edge would suggest significant gains for the minority party if the margin held through November. (Bedard notes that Democrats were at 44% in the Zogby generic ballot in January but offers no specifics on what the Republican number looked like at that point.)
- The "edges" that Trump has over Democrats on the economy and national security "trust" questions are almost certainly statistically insignificant. While Bedard doesn't provide details about the size of the sample or the resulting margin of error, it's very, very likely to be well within the 2-point "lead" that Trump has on national security and even the 6-point margin he enjoys on the economy. Statistically speaking, the best way to describe these results goes something like this: People trust both Democrats and President Trump roughly equally when it comes to issues of the economy and matters of national security.
- This poll is conducted via the Internet, a methodology that continues to be looked at very skeptically by the broader polling community. "Rigorous evaluations have found that volunteer online panels are less representative of the general population than probability samples," reads an analysis of the method on the American Association for Public Opinion Research. (You can read MUCH more about the issues with online polling here.)