key house race update cillizza orig bw_00003309.jpg
key house race update cillizza orig bw_00003309.jpg
Now playing
01:47
More House races that should worry the GOP
senator bill nelson 11132018
PHOTO: CNN
senator bill nelson 11132018
Now playing
02:03
Nelson: Scott should recuse himself
Rep. Marsha Blackburn, R-Tenn., speaks to supporters after she was declared the winner over former Gov. Phil Bredesen in their race for the U.S. Senate Tuesday, Nov. 6, 2018, in Franklin, Tenn. (AP Photo/Mark Humphrey)
PHOTO: Mark Humphrey/AP
Rep. Marsha Blackburn, R-Tenn., speaks to supporters after she was declared the winner over former Gov. Phil Bredesen in their race for the U.S. Senate Tuesday, Nov. 6, 2018, in Franklin, Tenn. (AP Photo/Mark Humphrey)
Now playing
01:26
Meet the Republicans who held onto the Senate (2018)
Democratic congressional candidate Ilhan Omar is greeted by her husband's mother after appearing at her midterm election night party in Minneapolis, Minnesota, U.S. November 6, 2018. REUTERS/Eric Miller
PHOTO: Eric Miller/Reuters
Democratic congressional candidate Ilhan Omar is greeted by her husband's mother after appearing at her midterm election night party in Minneapolis, Minnesota, U.S. November 6, 2018. REUTERS/Eric Miller
Now playing
01:33
Minorities, LGBT make history in 2018 midterms
PHOTO: WJLA
Now playing
02:01
Hear from the Democrats who took back the House
PHOTO: CNN
Now playing
01:50
Abrams vows to remain in gubernatorial race
PHOTO: Spectrum News NY1
Now playing
02:05
Ocasio-Cortez: This is a movement for justice
PHOTO: KXAN
Now playing
02:07
O'Rourke congratulates Cruz on his victory
PHOTO: CNN
Now playing
01:57
Tapper: This is not a blue wave
PHOTO: CNN
Now playing
02:11
Van Jones: It's a rainbow wave
LAS VEGAS, NV - OCTOBER 20:  U.S. Rep. and U.S. Senate candidate Jacky Rosen (D-NV) speaks during a rally at the Culinary Workers Union Hall Local 226 featuring former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden on October 20, 2018 in Las Vegas, Nevada. Early voting for the midterm elections in Nevada begins today. (Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images)
PHOTO: Ethan Miller/Getty Images
LAS VEGAS, NV - OCTOBER 20: U.S. Rep. and U.S. Senate candidate Jacky Rosen (D-NV) speaks during a rally at the Culinary Workers Union Hall Local 226 featuring former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden on October 20, 2018 in Las Vegas, Nevada. Early voting for the midterm elections in Nevada begins today. (Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images)
Now playing
01:45
CNN projects Jacky Rosen elected to US Senate
Additional Embargo:   Additional Source(s):    Date Shot: 11/6/2018   Shipping/Billing Info:     Description: Projects: None  Cost Center: Atlanta National Desk / 20100101   Created By: DHackett  On: 1541544461  --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PHOTO: WSB;
Additional Embargo: Additional Source(s): Date Shot: 11/6/2018 Shipping/Billing Info: Description: Projects: None Cost Center: Atlanta National Desk / 20100101 Created By: DHackett On: 1541544461 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Now playing
00:59
Brian Kemp: Confident victory is near
2018 Elections Primary Clean path
PHOTO: CNN
2018 Elections Primary Clean path
Now playing
01:49
Pelosi: Tomorrow will be a new day in America
PHOTO: CNN
Now playing
01:36
The Democrats who might lead the House
PHOTO: CNN
Now playing
01:54
DeSantis thanks Trump in victory speech
PHOTO: KXAN
Now playing
01:44
Cruz: This election was a battle of ideas
(CNN) —  

On Monday, CNN’s key House race tracker ranked a dozen seats currently held by Republicans as being in more electoral danger, the latest in a series of developments that suggest the majority party is increasingly less likely to hold that majority come November.

The changes mean that Republicans now have 78 seats in some form of political peril as compared to just 40 for Democrats. If Republicans lost only the seats they hold that CNN currently rates as toss-ups or leaning toward Democrats, they would lose 28 seats – five more than Democrats need to retake the majority.

Yes, the election isn’t tomorrow. In fact, November 6, 2018 is still 190 days away.

But the trend line has to concern Republican strategists charged with holding onto the House majority. With each passing week, more GOP-held seats come online as competitive – widening Democrats’ margin for error and stretching the Republican cash devoted to keeping the majority that much thinner. 

Of the 12 seats CNN moved on Monday, Trump won all of the districts; he carried three by single digits and nine by double digits – including two that he won by more than 20.

Everyone knew that 2018 would be a tough year for Republicans, given historic trends against the party who holds the White House. Trump’s inability to move his job approval numbers much above 40% compounds those problems as does the fact that he has been, to date, the best turnout driver Democrats could possibly hope for.

The Point: If districts that Trump won in 2016 by 10 to 15 points are competitive this fall, the GOP House majority is as good as gone. The only important question will be how many seats Democrats can pick up. 

Read Monday’s full edition of The Point newsletter.