After days of anticipation, President Donald Trump is expected to signal to the House Intelligence Committee on Friday that he wants a memo written by GOP staffers faulting the FBI over the Russia investigation released.
Republican lawmakers who have seen the memo, drawn from classified sources, say it shows that senior law enforcement officials abused surveillance laws in obtaining a warrant to eavesdrop on Trump campaign foreign policy aide Carter Page.
More about the Nunes memo
Trump supporters believe the episode will show that the bureau was biased all along against the President, think it reveals corruption at the top of the FBI and believe it will ultimately cast doubt on the credibility of the investigation by special counsel Robert Mueller.
Critics say this is nothing more than a coordinated attempt by Trump and allies on Capitol Hill to selectively misuse intelligence to malign Mueller’s investigation and to give a pretext to remove senior officials overseeing the probe. The showdown, meanwhile, between Trump and FBI Director Christopher Wray over the memo has dragged the incessantly simmering tension between the White House and national security institutions back into the open.
Trump slammed the leadership of the FBI – led by a man Trump himself appointed – and the Justice Department in an early morning tweet Friday.
“The top Leadership and Investigators of the FBI and the Justice Department have politicized the sacred investigative process in favor of Democrats and against Republicans - something which would have been unthinkable just a short time ago. Rank & File are great people!” he said.
Here are five questions that may be answered once the report is released.
Will Wray quit?
Senior White House officials fear that Wray could quit if the memo is released over his vehement, and unusually public, objections, multiple sources with knowledge of the situation tell CNN.
If that were to happen, Trump would have effectively forced out his second FBI director over political differences, after removing James Comey last year. The post is supposed to carry a 10-year term to shield its holder from the political fray.
Were Wray to go, it would presumably be on the grounds that he has lost the confidence of the President who appointed him, since his advice, and pleadings, would have been disregarded on an issue of national security. Another rationale for him to quit might be to highlight an attempt by Trump to politicize the FBI and the case he is making that the nation’s premier law enforcement agency, charged with keeping Americans safe from terror, is corrupt.
Alternatively, having made a stand, Wray might reason that the memo, essentially a political document, is not the issue on which to resign, given the likely future confrontations between the bureau and the White House that could center on even more serious matters. Another reason for Wray to stay is that if he goes, the President could seek to insert a more pliable replacement.
Will the memo live up to the hype?
After days of blaring news coverage, leaks and hints from lawmakers who have seen the memo, there must be some concern that the public release of the document will fall flat and not have the explosive impact that Trump allies hope.
CNN reported on Thursday that Trump is hopeful that the memo will undermine the Mueller investigation by revealing that the intelligence community was unfairly targeting him and his campaign.
Other Republicans have less expansive yet significant concerns, arguing that the memo will show that top FBI officials erred.
“There’s a problem with several people in some of the highest levels in the bureau and that needs to be investigated, and the American people need to understand why,” Rep. Bob Goodlatte of Virginia, chairman of the House Judiciary Committee, told reporters.
But given the expectations around the document – not least because of the warnings about its content by the FBI and Democrats, it will have to contain some stunning disclosures to justify the buildup. If the wow factor is not there, it could quickly fade as a political issue. Another danger for Trump and his supporters is that the days of ventilating could actually undercut his claims that the FBI is corrupt, if the memo fails to deliver.
In a potential warning sign for the President, House Speaker Paul Ryan on Thursday appeared to indicate the memo could fall well short of Trump’s hopes.
“This memo is not an indictment of the FBI, of the Department of Justice. It does not impugn the Mueller investigation or the deputy attorney general,” the Wisconsin Republican told reporters at a GOP retreat in West Virginia.