CNN  — 

There are 1,281 days between today and the Nov. 3, 2020 presidential election. But, with Donald Trump in the White House, Democratic politicians are already eagerly jockeying for position with the expectation that the party’s nominee will have a very good chance of ousting the incumbent – if his poll numbers stay anywhere as low as they are at the moment.

One potential candidate who looks like she’s decided against running is New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand. “I’m focused entirely on running for Senate, so yes, I’m ruling it out,” she said Monday in New York.

Gillibrand’s announcement is a bit of a surprise given that she was widely seen as a likely candidate. (She, of course, could change her mind sometime between now and 2020. See “Obama, Barack” on that front.)

Gillibrand’s news got me to thinking: Just how many people are thinking about/mentioned/floating themselves for the Democratic nomination and where, roughly, do they fit when it comes to their chances of winning?

Below I broke the field into four tiers as a way to think about the massive number of potential competitors. These names – and the groups they fall into – are based on email exchanges with more than a dozen national Democratic strategists, many of whom are veterans of the Obama and Clinton campaigns.

One grain of salt before we proceed. A prominent Democratic consultant offered this analysis of the current field: “I don’t think there is a top tier. I think our bench is that weak so everyone starts in Tier B.”

Also, I’ve placed them in alphabetical order within their respective tiers.

1st Tier (If they run, they have a real chance to win the nomination)

Joe Biden

04:59 - Source: CNN
Who is the leader of the Democratic Party?

The former vice president clearly regrets not running in 2016. And he’s keeping the sort of schedule – New Hampshire speech! – that makes him look like someone who’s thinking of running.

Bernie Sanders

00:47 - Source: CNN
Sanders: Obama's paid speech not a good idea

The Vermont independent started a movement in 2016. His grassroots activist and donor base is bigger than anyone in the potential 2020 field.

Elizabeth Warren

07:16 - Source: CNN
Sen. Warren's full interview with Jake Tapper

Warren, prior to 2016, was the face of the populist, anti-Wall Street wing of the Democratic party. Sanders cut into Warren’s dominance in his presidential campaign. But, she remains the single most beloved figure among liberals.

2nd Tier (Have potential to be a major contender but not there….yet)

Cory Booker

05:21 - Source: CNN
Booker: Exec order on sanctuary cities hurts police

A few people I talked to suggested the New Jersey Senator belonged in the top tier. I am skeptical not just because of the mediocre Senate campaign he ran in 2013 but also because of his well-documented ties to Wall Street.

Andrew Cuomo

01:03 - Source: CNN
Cuomo announces proposal for free tuition

A two-term governor of New York with a record of liberal accomplishments and a famous last name? Check, check and check.

Al Franken

05:33 - Source: CNN
Watch the full interview with Sen. Al Franken

The Minnesota Senator emerged as one of the leading critics of Trump’s Cabinet picks in the early days of the administration. And he’s gone from a sideshow to a serious legislator in his eight years in the Senate.

Kamala Harris

01:05 - Source: CNN
Kamala Harris: Boycott about transparency

The newly-minted California senator is avoiding any talk about her future ambitions. But her history-making Senate bid – she’s the first Indian American and first black senator from California – and the state’s size and massive Democratic dominance makes her appealing

Jay Inslee

00:43 - Source: CNN
Democratic Governors plot a 'vigorous 2018'

That so few people in Washington buzz about the two term Washington governor is a pretty obvious case of East Coast bias. Inslee has spent time in Washington (D.C.) as a member of Congress and got a major media boost from his state’s role in blocking Trump’s travel ban.

Tim Kaine

02:11 - Source: CNN
Kaine: Trump trying to stay cozy with Russia

The 2016 vice presidential nominee has insisted he won’t run for the top job in 2020. I take him (mostly) at his word, so he sits in the 2nd tier. But if Kaine runs – particularly with the blessing – and endorsement(?) – of Hillary Clinton he could be formidable.

Terry McAuliffe

01:48 - Source: CNN
VA governor on Trump's infrastructure plan

The Virginia governor is term-limited out of a job later this year and there is already chatter about what he might do next. And, his prominent role leading Democratic redistricting efforts gives him a national platform and fundraising base. Also, the Clintons.

Chris Murphy

01:33 - Source: CNN
Murphy: Trump lied to reporters on immigration

The Connecticut Senator’s profile has soared since the tragedy in Newtown in December 2012. Murphy has not just emerged as a lead voice on gun control but also as a point man in attacks on Trump. Some whisper he is too green and ambitious. But that’s rarely a hindrance in presidential politics.

3rd Tier (There’s a chance but….)

Steve Bullock

There was no recent CNN interview with Montana Gov. Steve Bullock

The governor of Montana is a Democrat. Did you know that? Probably not. That’s Bullock’s problem. But, if Democrats are looking for new voice from the Mountain West, he has a puncher’s shot.

Eric Garcetti

01:30 - Source: CNN
Mayor of L.A. ready to stand up to Trump

The popular mayor of Los Angeles is mulling runs for governor in 2018 and president in 2020. President seems like too big a leap. Particularly with fellow Californian Kamala Harris lurking.

John Hickenlooper

05:17 - Source: CNN
Hickenlooper: 'A lot of things on the table'

Quietly, the governor of Colorado made it to the final cut of Clinton’s vice presidential list. He has a powerful story – small businessman, mayor of Denver, two term governor – and represents a part of the county where Democrats are growing. But, he is very low-key – and may be too moderate for Democratic primary voters.

Amy Klobuchar

04:15 - Source: CNN
Klobuchar: Leaks on Flynn are not the issue

Klobuchar, who has represented Minnesota since 2006, and is widely seen as both ambitious and talented. But, buzz about Franken is eclipsing her right now.

Mitch Landrieu

00:52 - Source: WDSU
New Orleans begins Confederate statue removal

The mayor of New Orleans – and scion to a famous political family – was floated as a possible presidential candidate in the New York Times. Which is something. But hard to see how he gets from here to there.

Seth Moulton

06:50 - Source: CNN
Lawmaker: 'War doesn't get any easier'

The Massachusetts House member wins rave reviews and is seen by almost everyone as a future Democratic leader. (I had an email exchange with Moulton about the future of the Democratic party back in February.) But 2020 feels, at least at the moment, like too much of a leap.

Martin O’Malley

00:56 - Source: CNN
Martin O'Malley suspends presidential campaign

O’Malley ran a respectable campaign for president in 2016 and judging by his travel might want to run it back. But it’s hard to see how a 2020 bid would be much different than his 2016 run.

No Tier (Rich businesspeople who’ve never run for anything before)

Mark Cuban

03:17 - Source: CNN
Mark Cuban questions Trump's competence

The Dallas Mavericks owner has emerged as one of the most vocal – and effective – critics of Trump. If he ran, he’d likely bill himself as a Trump 2.0 – a successful businessman bringing the lessons he’s learned in the private sector to public office.

Sheryl Sandberg

08:05 - Source: CNN
Sandberg opens up about husband's death (full)

Facebook’s chief operating officer is much more than a tech executive these days. Her acclaimed “Lean In” started a national conversation about women (and men) in the workforce. And, her recent memoir about the sudden death of her husband has also been well received. FWIW: She denies any interest in the race.

Howard Schultz

02:15 - Source: CNN
Starbucks CEO: Politics is a cloud over U.S. consumers

The Starbucks founder is clearly interested in influencing public policy going forward – although it remains to be seen if that means a presidential bid. Schultz has a rags-to-riches story that most people don’t know and would almost certainly be appealing.

Mark Zuckerberg

01:01 - Source: CNN
Mark Zuckerberg surprises family at dinner

No, there won’t be two Facebook executives running for president in 2020. (There probably won’t be any.) But, Zuckerberg, who founded Facebook, has been on a tour of the Rust Belt of late that has sparked talk of political ambition. if he did run – he almost certainly won’t – his ubiquity and massive personal fortune would make him an intriguing candidate.