Kim Jong Nam: Why would North Korea want him dead?

Mystery still surrounds the sudden death of Kim Jong Nam, the eldest son of late North Korean dictator Kim Jong Il, in Kuala Lumpur airport last week.

Police said Kim was assaulted from behind, and something may have been sprayed or held over his face, causing him to feel dizzy. He died in an ambulance on the way to hospital.

South Korea has called the murder an “act of terrorism” and said it was carried out by the North Korean government. At least five North Koreans are currently under investigation by Malaysian police.

But why would Pyongyang want to kill a member of its ruling dynasty? Analysts say it’s hard to know with any certainty but differences with ally and neighbor China and the dynamics of sibling rivalry may have played a role.

Rift with China?

In 2001, Kim Jong Nam was caught trying to enter Japan on a forged passport, reportedly in an attempt to visit Tokyo Disneyland.

This caused huge embarrassment for North Korea and ended any lingering chances Kim had of succeeding his father as leader. From around 2003, he lived in near exile in Macau, a Chinese-controlled territory near Hong Kong.

Kim regularly visited China, and maintained close ties with Beijing, primarily through his uncle Jang Song Thaek, the second-most powerful man in North Korea following Kim Jong Il’s death in 2011.

“Jang Song Taek was China’s guy in Pyongyang,” said Jeffrey Lewis, director of the US-based East Asia Nonproliferation Program.

“(He) was the source of Kim Jong Nam’s income and probably why the Chinese protected him.”

Jang was dramatically purged and executed in 2013 on the order of Kim Jong Un, robbing Kim Jong Nam of his strongest ally in Pyongyang and a major link to Beijing.

If North Korea is confirmed as being behind Kim Jong Nam’s death as well, it will “greatly undermine China’s confidence” in Kim Jong Un’s regime, said Zhao Tong, an associate at the Carnegie Tsinghua Center for Global Policy in Beijing.

“Kim Jong Nam long advocated for a pro-reform approach in North Korea and openly encouraged (Pyongyang) to follow China’s example,” said Zhao.

China is North Korea’s only real ally, but relations have become increasingly strained as Pyongyang has continued to aggressively pursue its nuclear program in the face of international sanctions supported by Beijing.

“When the North Koreans executed Jang, it was nominally for his business dealings in China,” said Lewis.

“North Korea is wiping out all the pro-Chinese regime elements – although this murder seems especially cruel.”

Such a move would be a dramatic miscalculation by Pyongyang, according to Zhao.

“If this murder is confirmed (as being ordered by Kim Jong Un), that will deal a major blow to China’s hopes about the North Korean leadership’s ability to open up,” he said.

This could fundamentally change how Beijing – a long advocate of diplomatic talks between Pyongyang and its rivals – deals with North Korea and its nuclear program.

A recent decision by China – citing UN sanctions – to halt all coal imports from North Korea, may be a sign of Beijing’s displeasure with Kim Jong Nam’s death, Zhao said.

Succession threat?

Sidelined after his father left his mother for dancer Ko Yong Hui in the 1970s, Kim Jong Nam was at one point a potential rival to his youngest brother for the succession (a middle brother, Kim Jong Chul was passed over for unclear reasons).

Nevertheless, Kim Jong Un’s ascension progressed far more smoothly than many predicted, and he soon shored up his grip on power through a brutal campaign of crackdowns and executions.

A South Korean think tank said in December that Kim had ordered the killing of 340 people since 2011.

Kim Jong Nam lacked anything close to a power base in Pyongyang, according to Michael Madden, an expert on the country’s leadership.

Kim Jong Nam with his father, former North Korean leader Kim Jong Il.

“Given his heritage, (Kim) Jong Nam was viewed by some elderly North Korean elites as a kind of grandson figure,” he wrote last week. “This affection and relationship could not necessarily form a basis of political support domestically, but it would have been helpful had (Kim) Jong Nam ever put himself forward as a political rival to his half-brother.”

However, it is unclear whether Kim Jong Nam ever desired to succeed his father, let alone his brother.

In interviews with Yoji Gomi, author of the 2012 book about him “My Father, Kim Jong Il, and Me,” Kim criticized hereditary succession and called for economic and political reform in the country.

Speaking to former UN Under-Secretary General Elisabeth Rehn in an interview for Finnish television, Kim Jong Nam’s son Kim Han Sol said his father was “not really interested in politics.”

Any potential plot to challenge Kim Jong Un would have likely required support from China, something Zhao doubts would be have been forthcoming since 2011.

“It makes no sense for China to engage in political conspiracy against Kim Jong Un and risk the overall China-North Korea relationship,” when the chance of Kim Jong Nam succeeding “is so low,” he said.

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North Korean high school students play on a beach at Wonsan, on September 11, 2017.

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Bartender at the Rainbow floating restaurant in Pyongyang on September 10.

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Sunday afternoon row boats on the Taedong River, Pyongyang, beside Juche Tower. Taken on September 10.

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Participation in mass celebrations is mandatory for those privileged citizens allowed to live in the capital, Pyongyang. Taken on September 9.

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Pyongyang residents walk past a poster marking the 69th DPRK Foundation Day on September 9. It reads "Let the entire world look up to the great Kim Il Sung nation and Kim Jong Il Korea."

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This statue in Samjiyon depicts North Korea's founding President Kim Il Sung when he was a guerrilla fighter against the Japanese. Taken on September 6.

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The lobby of the CNN team's hotel in Samjiyon on September 5.

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A bus driver who drives a Japanese vehicle over some of the bumpiest roads in North Korea. Taken on September 5.

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Propaganda banners line the streets of Samjiyon on September 4.

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Public transportation in rural North Korea, near the Chinese border, taken on September 4.

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A young North Korean musician in the border town of Kaesong, taken on September 4. Music is a huge part of life in North Korea.

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North Korean tour guide at Mt Paektu outside the alleged birth place of Kim Jong Il, on September 3. Kim is widely considered to have been born in Russia.

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Housing units deep in rural North Korea, near the border with China, taken on September 3.

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A boy living in the mountainous northeastern border region on September 3, not far from North Korea's sixth nuclear test.

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The view from the top of Mt Paektu on September 3, a sacred site to North Koreans close to the border with China. First time CNN has ever been allowed here.

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The Mausoleum of Tangun is said to hold the remains of the ancient King Tangun -- widely considered a mythical figure.

North Korea built the pyramid in 1994 and has not allowed outside experts to verify the remains inside.

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Sunset from inside Pyongyang, the North Korean capital, on August 31.

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The crowd applauds as North Korean TV airs footage of their latest missile launch outside Pyongyang Station on August 30, 2017.

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The parents in North Korea of an inadvertent defector react to a video message, shared by CNN's Will Ripley, from their daughter, who lives in South Korea and cannot return home. The family hasn't been together in years.

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May Day celebrations are held on May 1 in Pyongyang.

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A North Korean boy sits in his family's living room on April 30 in Pyongyang.

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North Koreans in Pyongyang celebrate the country's 85th annual Army Day on April 25. The holiday celebrates the founding of its army.

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A North Korea veteran stands against the backdrop of the USS Pueblo, a US Navy ship that North Korea captured in 1968. CNN's Will Ripley‪ asked this veteran about his thoughts on the USS Carl Vinson, an American aircraft carrier conducting joint drills with two Japanese destroyers in the western Pacific Ocean. The veteran told Ripley, "We can sink that aircraft carrier."

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Ripley noted that in Pyongyang, children are often seen dressed in bright, colorful clothing, contrasting with the more conservative and darker outfits worn by many adults.

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North Korean soldiers march on April 15, as the nation marks the birth of its founder, Kim Il Sung, who is also the grandfather of current leader Kim Jong Un.

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North Koreans celebrate the birthday of Kim Il Sung. He would have been 105.

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Tanks roll through Kim Il Sung Square on April 15.

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North Korean air force jets fly over the Pyongyang celebration.

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North Korean leader Kim Jong Un appears at a ceremony to formally open a housing development in Pyongyang on April 13. The project was rushed to completion in under a year, North Korean officials say.

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North Koreans gather to witness the opening of the Ryomyong Street housing development.

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Foreign journalists are filmed by North Korean media during the Ryomyong Street event.

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Soldiers leave the opening ceremony of the Ryomyong Street development.

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North Koreans observe a statue of their founder, Kim Il Sung, at the Museum of the Korean Revolution on April 10. CNN's Will Ripley said it was the first time CNN cameras had been allowed into the Pyongyang museum.

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North Koreans pose on April 9, for a photo at Mangyongdae, the birthplace of Kim Il Sung.

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Boys in Pyongyang pose for a photo at a secondary school for orphans on February 19.

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A tiger is seen at a zoo in Pyongyang on February 19. CNN's Will Ripley, Tim Schwarz and Justin Robertson were the only Western broadcasters reporting from North Korea after it conducted a ballistic missile test on February 12. See their dispatches.

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CNN's Will Ripley posted this photo of the Pyongyang skyline on February 17. "Note the 105-story pyramid skyscraper, the Ryugyong Hotel. Work began in 1987. Still unfinished," Ripley said in his Instagram post.

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North Korean soldiers ride on February 17, in a black Mercedes-Benz on the streets of Pyongyang.

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A 70-story apartment building undergoes construction on February 17.

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The floating Rainbow Restaurant is seen in Pyongyang on February 17.

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North Korean soldiers watch fireworks on February 16, in Pyongyang.

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People use smartphones on on February 16, to take photos of an ice sculpture in Pyongyang.

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A soldier stands guard in North Korea on February 16. While military service for women has long been voluntary, it reportedly was made mandatory recently in a bid to bolster the armed forces.

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A boy visits the Kimjongilia flower show on February 16. The red flowers are named after the late North Korean leader Kim Jong Il.

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University students dance in front of the Pyongyang indoor stadium on February 16.

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Book titles are listed in English at a bookshop for tourists in the Yanggakdo Hotel in Pyongyang.

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Ice flows down the Taedong River in Pyongyang on February 16.

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Soldiers pay respects to former North Korean leaders on February 15. The site is considered one of the most sacred in Pyongyang.

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Vendors sell flowers February 15 to mourners paying their respects to deceased leaders of North Korea.

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The view over the frozen Taedong River shows residential areas of Pyongyang on February 15.

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The symbol of North Korea's sole political party, the Korean Workers' Party, can be seen atop a government building in Pyongyang.

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Taxis are becoming more prevalent on the streets of Pyongyang. Most commuters still ride buses.

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Tour guides told CNN's crew that "in 1948, Kim Il Sung, his wife and his then 7-year-old son, Kim Jong Il, test fired North Korea's first domestically manufactured submachine gun," Tim Schwartz said on Instagram. The guides said that all three shot bullseyes at 50 meters.

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The Man Gyong Dae School Children's Palace, shown in May 2016, is an after-school activity complex in Pyongyang.

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Young singers practice their performance at a "children's palace" in Pyongyang.

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Children play volleyball at an after-school center in Pyongyang.

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An Olympic-sized swimming pool is a focal point of a "children's palace" after-school center in Pyongyang.

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Pyongyang prepares in 2016 for the Workers' Party of Korea congress, the first such meeting since 1980. The event aimed to consolidate Kim Jong Un's power in the regime.

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A train can be seen from the window of the Koryo Hotel in Pyongyang.

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CNN visits the North Korean Science and Technology Center in Pyongyang in January 2016.

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Visitors to North Korea's Science and Technology Center use the tightly regulated North Korean intranet.

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A guide shows visitors a display in the North Korean Science and Technology Center.

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Exhibits at the North Korean Science and Technology Center include this fighter jet.

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During a carefully choreographed show of strength to mark the 70th anniversary of the ruling Korean Workers' Party in October 2015, a soldier marches across Pyongyang's Kim Il Sung Square.

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Young members of North Korea's military ride artillery through Pyongyang.

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North Korean soldiers march below statues of North Korea's founding president Kim Il Sung and his son, Kim Jong Il.

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Weapons are paraded through Pyongyang as a clear signal to the rest of the world that North Korea has military might.

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A large mural of North Korean founder Kim Il Sung stands outside the Jang Chon cooperative farm, a 30-minute drive outside the capital Pyongyang. CNN visited the farm in September 2015.

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Farm manager Kim Myong Jon is something of a celebrity in North Korea. During the past 40 years, she's met with all three North Korean leaders.

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The farm where Kim Myong Jon works is home to one of North Korea's first greenhouses. It was first visited by Kim Il Sung more than three decades ago, and more recently by his grandson, current leader Kim Jong Un.

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Chili peppers lie in the sun at the Jang Chon farm. Peppers are used for making kimchi, the fermented cabbage dish that is a staple of the North Korean diet.

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CNN's Will Ripley speaks with scientists from North Korea's space agency, the National Aeronautical Development Association (NADA). In September 2015, CNN was given exclusive access to the newly opened satellite control center.

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The futuristic space center is in a residential area not far from the center of Pyongyang.

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Two officials walk in the grounds of the space facility. NADA officials told CNN that they had prepared multiple satellites and were in the "final stages of perfecting all operations."

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Hula hoop diplomacy at a North Korean dolphinarium. CNN video journalist Brad Olson was called on stage to show how it's done."I managed to get three going, much to the delight of the crowd," he said.

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In May 2015, CNN was given rare access to a faculty apartment in an upscale area of Pyongyang, near Kim Il Sung University. The lounge was neat, if a little dated.

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This is the master bedroom of the three-bedroom apartment. A university professor lives in the home with his adult children. It's 200 square meters (about 2,150 square feet). That's large for an apartment in Pyongyang.

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A flat-screen television sits prominently in the lounge.

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Books are neatly lined up above a desk in the study. There's a lamp for reading and a large padded chair.

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Every home in North Korea displays portraits of late leaders Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il. Housing is assigned by the government and is free. Those who want to move have to sign up to exchange places with other citizens.

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The kitchen features a double sink and brushed metal counter tops.

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The kitchen is fitted with a Haier two-burner gas hob. Haier, based in Qingdao, China, is one of the world's biggest home appliance companies.

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First-graders in a Pyongyang classroom are orderly yet energetic, often standing and giving spirited answers to their teacher's questions.

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North Korean students watch riding lessons at a new equestrian center designed by Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un. The facility was formerly used for military training.

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Outdoor exercise accompanied by upbeat music is a daily routine for these North Korean middle school students. Classes are critiqued on their coordination.

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Young children in a newly constructed Pyongyang orphanage practice a musical performance.

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The orphanage features a pool area for the children, who live and study in the complex.

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Young boys practice a drum routine that they will perform during International Children's Day.

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Toy rocket launchers sit ready for children to play with.

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Junior Lt. Col. Nam Dong Ho speaks to CNN correspondent Will Ripley. In May 2015, Ripley and his team were granted rare access to the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) in North Korea. An estimated three-quarters of North Korea's standing army of more than a million is based near the heavily fortified border.

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Soldiers stand guard on the North Korean side of the DMZ.

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North Korea displays the armistice agreement that brought the brutal fighting of the Korean War to an end in 1953.

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Junior Lt. Col. Nam Dong Ho is part of North Korea's standing army of more than a million.

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Pyongyang women wear their Sunday best -- and carry ornate umbrellas to shield themselves from the sun.

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Twin statues honor the late leaders of North Korea, Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il. Visitors to Pyongyang are routinely taken to pay their respects and lay flowers at the monument.

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Kim Jong Un personally inspected the plans for this new water park and had his top officials test the water slides for safety.

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Visitors to a Pyongyang water park play table tennis.

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The Pyongyang Gold Lane, a bowling alley in the North Korean capital, is popular among young people.

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Pyongyang Airport is the first stop on tours of North Korea. Air Koryo is the national airline. It operates direct flights from Beijing and Shenyang in China, and Vladivostok in Russia. Air Koryo has an aging fleet, although it has purchased some newer aircraft in recent years.

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The inflight magazine features multiple pages on Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un.

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The inflight meal consists of a burger and a glass of North Korean beer.

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Sibling rivalry

Born while Kim Jong Nam was studying overseas, and brought up separately by a mother who saw her husband’s first family as rivals to her own sons, Kim Jong Un was never going to be close to his eldest brother.

Indeed, according to the author Gomi, the two brothers never even met.

This did not stop Kim Jong Nam openly criticizing his sibling, saying that Kim Jong Un was too weak to maintain control over the country and was a puppet for regime elders.

Such criticism is unlikely to have gone down well in Pyongyang, which often reacts angrily to any perceived slight, particularly from overseas.

Speaking to reporters last week, Gomi said Kim Jong Nam’s comments were known within the country.

“A defector told me there was a rumor the oldest son of Kim Jong Il had said critical words about North Korea and could be a cause of (reform),” he said. “That person mentioned the rumor gave him hope.”

South Korean lawmakers said Kim Jong Un ordered the assassination of his half-brother Kim Jong Nam.

South Korean lawmaker Lee Cheol-woo, citing a National Intelligence Service briefing, said that Pyongyang had been attempting to assassinate Kim Jong Nam for five years.

A North Korean man jailed for spying in South Korean in 2012 reportedly said he had been ordered to kill Kim.

Another lawmaker, Kim Byung-kee, said that Kim Jong Nam had written to his brother in 2012, asking him to spare his life and those of his family.

According to the South China Morning Post, friends of Kim Jong Nam in Macau said he told them he felt he was living on “borrowed time.”

Zhao said it was possible the timing of Kim’s death – awkward for North Korea as it faces massive international condemnation for its nuclear activity – may have been a coincidence.

“Kim Jong Un himself may have agreed for the North Korean spy agency to track down his half-brother, but he may not have directly issued the order to kill him, especially at this moment,” he said.

The opportunity for the alleged assassins may simply have been too good to pass up.