01:32 - Source: CNN
Critical Counties — Bucks, Pennsylvania: Blue since '92

Story highlights

Hillary Clinton has a large lead in New Hampshire with a day to go before the 2016 election

Clinton also leads in Pennsylvania, powered by an advantage in the southeast

CNN —  

New battleground state polls released Monday find Hillary Clinton with the advantage in New Hampshire and Pennsylvania with hours to go before Election Day.

New Hampshire

The CNN polling average in New Hampshire now has Clinton with a 3-point edge (44% to 41%) over Republican opponent Donald Trump following a new poll’s released Sunday showing the Democratic presidential nominee with an 11-point lead.

The poll from the University of New Hampshire, released Monday, found Clinton ahead of Trump 49% to 38%. Libertarian Gary Johnson registered 6% in the poll, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein drew 1%. Four percent said they remain undecided.

Other polls have shown a far closer race in New Hampshire – a Suffolk University/Boston Globe poll of the state last week found the race tied at 42%.

The UNH poll found that 85% of likely voters in New Hampshire have their minds made up with hours to go before the presidential election, with Clinton drawing more support from Democrats (95%) than Trump does from Republicans (86%). Clinton is also powered by her edge among women and college-educated voters, while men and voters with a high school degree or less form the base of Trump’s support.

According to the poll, Trump and Clinton “will end the election cycle historically unpopular among New Hampshire voters,” with both candidates registering negative favorability ratings: -14% for Clinton, and -36% for Trump.

The UNH poll also surveyed New Hampshire voters on down-ballot races, and found Democrat Gov. Maggie Hassan leading incumbent Republican Sen. Kelly Ayotte 48% to 43% in the state’s tight senate battle.

The UNH poll of New Hampshire was conducted between November 3-6, and surveyed 707 New Hampshire likely voters. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.7 percent.


Clinton also has a lead in another crucial battleground state – Pennsylvania – according to the CNN polling average updated to show a new survey out over the weekend from Muhlenberg College/Allentown Morning Call.

The CNN polling average of Pennsylvania, reflecting five recently released state surveys, has Clinton at 47% to Trump’s 42%.

The Muhlenberg College poll found Clinton with a 4-point lead over Trump, 44% to 40%, in a four-way race. Johnson measured 7% support and Stein drew 2%.

Similar to New Hampshire, Clinton draws support from women, college-educated voters and nonwhite voters while Trump’s advantage lies with men, voters with no college education, and white voters. Trump narrowly edges Clinton among the state’s independents (41% to 38%). And Trump and Clinton are both widely unpopular among Pennsylvania’s likely voters – each candidate registers an unfavorable rating of about 60%.

Clinton is also helped by a huge advantage in the vote-rich southeast portion of the state, which includes Philadelphia and the surrounding suburbs. The poll found Clinton leading 61% to 29% in that region. Trump, meanwhile, has an edge (47% to 41%) in the southwest corner of the state, which includes Pittsburgh’s Allegheny County. Trump leads in the remainder of the state, 52% to 36%, according to the poll.

Pennsylvania also has close senate race between incumbent Republican Sen. Pat Toomey and Democratic challenger Katie McGinty. The poll found Toomey leading McGinty by one point, 42% to 41%, within the poll’s margin of error.

The Muhlenberg College/Allentown Morning Call poll was conducted between October 30 and November 4, and surveyed 405 likely Pennsylvania voters. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 5.5 points.

North Carolina

CNN’s latest Poll of polls in North Carolina shows Clinton with 45% support, while Trump is close behind with 43% support. The CNN polling average includes the five most recent publicly released polling results in the state.

The most recent New York Times Upshot and Sienna College poll shows an even tighter race with Clinton and Trump both with 44% support.

The New York Times/Sienna College poll also shows a close gubernatorial race in North Carolina. Republican Sen. Richard Burr holds a 1-point lead over Democratic Deborah Ross.

While the GOP has carried North Carolina in 10 of the last 12 presidential elections, the state’s geography and diversity could change that.

Clinton holds a 23-point lead among the state’s 18-34 year-old’s, and polls with 86% support among the African-American community, while Trump carries just 6% of African-American support.

The Poll of Polls includes: The New York Times Upshot/Siena College Poll conducted November 4-6; The Quinnipiac University Poll conducted November 3-6; The Elon University Poll conducted October 23-27; The NBC/WSJ/Marist Poll conducted October 25-26 and the Monmouth University Poll conducted October 20-23. The poll of polls does not have a margin of sampling error.


The latest CNN Poll of polls taken in Florida shows a dead locked race with Trump and Clinton both holding 45% support.

That average includes a Quinnipiac University poll taken November 3-6 shows Clinton with a 1-point lead in the Sunshine state. The poll also finds incumbent Republican Sen. Marco Rubio with a 7-point lead over Democratic challenger Patrick Murphy.

The Quinnipiac University Poll conducted November 3-6; The CNN/ORC Poll conducted October 27-November 1; The New York Times Upshot/Siena College Poll conducted October 25-27; the NBC/WSJ/Marist Poll conducted October 25-26 and the Bloomberg Politics/Selzer & Co. Poll conducted October 21-24. The poll of polls does not have a margin of sampling error.