Two North Carolina polls have different leaders in the 2016 presidential race
Mitt Romney won the state in 2012
New polling released Thursday shows a competitive presidential race in some of the most crucial swing states.
A survey from Quinnipiac University found Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by five points in Pennsylvania and four points in North Carolina, differing from an earlier poll released from the Tar Heel State showing Trump with a slim lead.
That poll, from Suffolk University, also found nearly half of the state’s voters think the Democrat will win the presidency.
According to Quinnipiac, Trump also holds a four-point edge in Ohio, and he is tied with Clinton at 43% in Florida, according to the poll. With Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson included, neither Clinton nor Trump eclipsed 45% in any of the four battleground states.
Suffolk found Trump with the support of 44% of likely North Carolina voters, a statistically insignificant three points better than Clinton’s 41%. Johnson claimed only about 4% in the poll, though the most recent CNN/ORC national poll has his support pegged at 7%. The Quinnipiac survey found Johnson with the support of 15% of North Carolina voters, higher than what most polling in the state has shown.
According to Suffolk, 41% of North Carolina voters said they have a favorable opinion of Trump, the Republican presidential nominee, while 49% said they have an unfavorable opinion. Only 37% of North Carolina voters said they have a favorable opinion of Clinton, while a majority – 55% – said they have an unfavorable opinion.
But when asked who is most likely to be elected president, 49% of the poll’s respondents gave the nod to the former secretary of state. Only 33% said Trump will win.
Clinton’s post-convention bump has dwindled as of late, with national polls showing an increasingly tight race. A CNN/ORC poll this week found Trump near even with Clinton among likely voters nationwide. But Clinton maintains an Electoral College firewall that appears to be far more resilient than Trump’s, according to state polling.
North Carolina, which 2012 GOP nominee Mitt Romney won four years ago and has been carried by Republicans in eight out of the last 10 presidential elections, appears to be a virtual tossup at this point. A CBS News poll released last weekend found Clinton leading Trump by four in the state.
The Suffolk University poll was conducted September 5-7 using phone interviews with 500 likely North Carolina voters. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University poll was conducted August 29-September 7 using phone interviews with 761 likely voters in Florida, 751 likely voters in North Carolina, 775 likely voters in Ohio and 778 likely voters in Pennsylvania. The margin of error is 3.6 percent in Florida, 3.6 in North Carolina, 3.5 percent in Ohio and 3.5 percent in Pennsylvania.
This story has been updated.