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CNN has updated its rating of battleground states

Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Colorado and Utah have all seen changes

The battleground map will evolve from now through the fall and just like the rest of this election season, it will be anything but predictable.

August has thus far been kind to Hillary Clinton’s poll numbers both nationally and in some critical battleground states.

What’s changed?

- New Hampshire (4 electoral votes) moves from “battleground” to “lean Democrat”

- Wisconsin (10 electoral votes) moves from “battleground” to “lean Democrat”

- Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes) moves from “battleground” to “lean Democrat”

- Virginia (13 electoral votes) moves from “battleground” to “lean Democrat”

That adds 37 more electoral votes to Clinton’s total and puts her at 273 electoral votes – just ahead of the needed 270 electoral votes to win the White House. Explore the map and make your choices

Explore the map and make your choices

Road to 270: Electoral College map

The state of play

Looking at the totality of the new polling, the advertising buys, and candidate travel and organization suggests that Donald Trump’s best possible path to the White House goes through the upper Midwest/Rust Belt region of the country, where he can try to turn out white working class voters in big numbers to turn states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin from blue to red. If he were able to erase Clinton’s advantage in Florida (where there has been some conflicting polling of late), it would give him some incredibly important flexibility in putting together the rest of his map.

This update to the map is far from a prediction that the election is over and Clinton has won. The next 80 days are going to be fiercely contested between the candidates and our current state of play shows Clinton holding a significant electoral advantage heading in to that intense fall campaign.

The current CNN battleground map gives Hillary Clinton 236 electoral votes from states that are either solidly or leaning in her direction compared to 191 electoral votes for Donald Trump in states that are solidly or leaning in his direction. That leaves 111 electoral votes up for grabs across 8 battleground states.

The political conventions provide each candidate the perfect opportunity to set the stage for the fall campaign blitz – both in terms of the negative frame they are building around their opponent and in terms of fleshing out their own positive attributes that get lost in the daily distortion and oversimplification that is presidential politics.

This battlefield may be set for the candidates to execute their post-convention game plans, but the news environment has been shifting rapidly and significantly. The terror attacks around the globe and at home combined with the racial strife on display in the streets of Louisiana, Minnesota and Texas have contributed to the growth of uncertainty. Voters watching the conventions will see a concentrated period of one candidate presenting herself as the steady hand running against the other candidate who is presenting himself as the much needed agent of change. It remains to be seen if the fast-moving dynamics around them will upend the demographic and structural political landscape beginning to take shape.

Solid Republican:

Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arkansas (6), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (8), Mississippi (6), Missouri (10), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (9), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (38), West Virginia (5), Wyoming (3) (158 total)

Leans Republican:

Arizona (11), Georgia (16), Utah (6) (33 total)

Battleground states:

Florida (29), Iowa (6), Nevada (6), Ohio (18), North Carolina (15) (74 total)

Leans Democratic:

Colorado (9), Michigan (16), New Hampshire (4), Pennsylvania (20), Virginia (13), Wisconsin (10), (72 total)

Solid Democratic:

California (55), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), DC (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (20), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (11), New Jersey (14), New York (29), Oregon (7), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Washington (12), Minnesota (10), New Mexico (5) (201 total)

Will Mullery and Tal Yellin contributed to this story.