After Taliban leader’s assassination, where do Afghan peace talks stand?

The White House, finally confirming the death of Mullah Akhtar Mohammad Mansour, announced Monday the Taliban “should seize the opportunity to pursue the only real path for ending this long conflict – joining the Afghan government in a reconciliation process that leads to lasting peace and stability.”

That is some optimism. It is true the Taliban’s most recently deceased leader – who took the helm after Mullah Mohammed Omar’s death finally broke into the open in 2015 despite years of trying to keep it secret – fervently opposed talks. But for a reason of his own. Many felt he was consolidating his grip on the insurgency after some intense infighting by showing battlefield prowess and success. Such a tactic, especially given the Taliban’s recent successes, is highly likely to be repeated by Mansour’s eventual successor.

taliban leader mullah mansour u.s. airstrike walsh newday_00000805.jpg

video

Are peace talks possible after Mansour's death?

President Barack Obama’s decision to order Mansour’s assassination says a lot about the current state of mind in the White House when it comes to the war that the commander in chief pursued vigorously at the start of his presidency.

The war in Afghanistan: Just what was the point?

Secondly, a drone stroke killed Mansour in Pakistan – the most high-profile operation there since the United States killed Osama bin Laden near Abbottabad in 2011. That indicates some impatience with Pakistan’s continued proximity to the Afghan Taliban and perhaps an indication in Washington that it does not believe Islamabad is entirely behind the peace process it nominally supports. Indeed, Pakistan’s relatively muted complaints about the violation of its sovereignty by Saturday’s drone strike was also voiced with a hope the peace talks could continue.

It’s unlikely they will. Mansour consolidated his grip by winning territory and bringing the fractured insurgency together on the battlefield. His successor will likely be tempted by the same tactic.

And sources close to the Taliban and media reports said the shortlist of candidates is topped by Sirajuddin Haqqani – the man the United States calls al Qaeda’s chief facilitator in Afghanistan and leader of his own eponymous network. Mansour made him his deputy of operations despite the signals that could send: that the Taliban were again too close to al Qaeda, and maybe also to the Pakistani intelligence services thought to bolster Haqqani. Mansour was not worried about appearing too radical to the Taliban he sought to lead.

Analysis: Afghanistan must recognize Taliban are winning

Photos: The Taliban

CNN

The Taliban, a Sunni Islamist organization operating primarily in Afghanistan and Pakistan, was formed in 1994. It was led by Mullah Mohammed Omar, a veteran of the Afghan mujahedeen that fought invading Soviets from 1979-1989. Omar, seen here in an undated video image, died in April 2013, according to a representative for Afghan President Ashraf Ghani.

Photos: The Taliban

BBC News/Newsnight/Getty Images

In this image taken off television by BBC Newsnight, Omar -- fourth from left -- attends a rally with Taliban troops before their victorious assault on Afghanistan's capital, Kabul, in 1996. The Taliban's aim is to impose its interpretation of Islamic law on Afghanistan and remove foreign influence from the country. Most of its members are Pashtun, the largest ethnic group in Afghanistan.

Photos: The Taliban

B.K.Bangash/AP

Tanks manned by Taliban fighters are decorated with flowers in front of the presidential palace in Kabul on September 27, 1996.

Photos: The Taliban

Saeed Khan/AFP/Getty Images

Taliban soldiers in Russian-made tanks fire on the forces of former Afghan defense minister Ahmad Shah Massood in October 1996.

Photos: The Taliban

Roger Lemoyne/Liaison AgencY/Getty Images

Afghan women in Kabul are covered head to toe in traditional burqas on October 16, 1996. After taking over Kabul, the ruling Taliban imposed strict Islamic laws on the Afghan people. Television, music and non-Islamic holidays were banned. Women were not allowed to attend school or work outside the home, and they were forbidden to travel alone.

Photos: The Taliban

Emmanuel Dunand/AFP/Getty Images

Three women hitch a ride on the back of a donkey cart as they pass by the ruins of Kabul's former commercial district in November 1996.

Photos: The Taliban

EPA

This is an undated image believed to show the Taliban's former leader, Mullah Mohammed Omar. In 1997, the Taliban issued an edict renaming Afghanistan the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. The country was only officially recognized by three countries: Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

Photos: The Taliban

AP

In 1997, Omar forged a relationship with al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden, pictured. Bin Laden then moved his base of operations to Kandahar, Afghanistan.

Photos: The Taliban

Amir Shah/AP

In March 2001, Taliban soldiers stand at the base of the mountain alcove where a Buddha statue once stood 170 feet high in Bamiyan, Afghanistan. The Taliban destroyed two 1,500-year-old Buddha figures in the town, saying they were idols that violated Islam.

Photos: The Taliban

U.S. Navy/Getty Images

After the 9/11 attacks, the United States conducted military strikes against al Qaeda training camps and military installations of the Taliban regime. In this long-exposure photo, a U.S. Navy fighter jet takes off from the deck of the USS Enterprise on October 7, 2001.

Photos: The Taliban

David Guttenfelder/AP

An Afghan anti-Taliban fighter pops up from his tank to spot a U.S. warplane bombing al Qaeda fighters in the Tora Bora region of Afghanistan on December 10, 2001. After massive U.S. bombardment as a part of Operation Enduring Freedom, the Taliban lost Afghanistan to U.S. and Northern Alliance forces.

Photos: The Taliban

Jerome Delay/AP

Afghans look into Omar's bedroom as they go through his compound on the outskirts of Kandahar on December 11, 2001.

Photos: The Taliban

Mamoon Durrani/AFP/Getty Images

In April 2011, hundreds of prisoners escaped from a prison in Kandahar by crawling through a tunnel. The Taliban took responsibility for the escape. This picture shows a general view of the prison, top center, and the house, bottom right, from which Taliban militiamen dug the tunnel leading to the prison.

Photos: The Taliban

Faisal Al-Timimi/AFP/Getty Images

Security guards stand outside the new Taliban political office in Doha, Qatar, before its official opening in June 2013. The Taliban announced that they hoped to improve relations with other countries, head toward a peaceful solution to the Afghanistan occupation and establish an independent Islamic system in the country.

Photos: The Taliban

Haroon Sabawoon/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

Zafar Hashemi, deputy spokesman for Afghan President Ashraf Ghani, speaks during a news conference on July 29, when the news of Omar's death was announced.

Photos: The Taliban

From Taliban

Mullah Akhtar Mohammad Mansour became the leader of the Taliban after Omar's death. Mansour was killed in an airstrike in Pakistan on Saturday, May 21, 2016.

Prev Next

Another deputy being considered as a successor is Haibatullah Akhund, the second-in-command. Mullah Mohammad Yaqoob – Mullah Omar’s son – is also thought possible, as is former Guantanamo prisoner Mullah Abdul Qayyum Zakir. At a time when the Taliban controls more territory in Afghanistan than it has since 2001, and their leader has just been executed by a drone strike, it’s unlikely whoever takes the helm will decide now is finally the time for peace talks.

Clearly, the White House decided disarray, chaos and even a leadership struggle, in which different factions tried to prove themselves in battle, were preferable than the status quo. Mansour’s death provides the administration with a simple answer to those who say it is losing the war in Afghanistan, but it may not bring the peace that is sought.