Wisconsin primary: 5 takeaways

Ted Cruz’s win over Donald Trump in Wisconsin means a contested GOP convention is not only possible, but may be probable. And Bernie Sanders reminded Hillary Clinton that the Democratic race isn’t over yet.

Wisconsin was a must-win for both Cruz and Sanders as the 2016 race shifts to New York, where both front-runners will try to regain their footing in the state they call home. Both did just that – and they racked up big margins of victory, with Cruz besting Trump by 15 percentage points and Sanders ahead of Clinton by 13 points.

Here are five takeaways from Tuesday’s contests:

A contested convention is more likely

For Trump, getting the delegate math to add up to 1,237 before the Republican National Convention in Cleveland was always a tall task.

Ted Cruz, Donald Trump, John Kasich, Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders,

PHOTO: Nigel Parry for CNN

Who's running for president?

It just got much more difficult.

Cruz win moves GOP closer to contested convention

Cruz’s big Wisconsin win raises the possibility that Trump romps in the Northeast, wins California and still comes up just short, throwing the nominating battle into a contested convention.

Cruz tried again to consolidate the anti-Trump movement, touting in a Milwaukee speech the $2 million he said his campaign has raised Tuesday alone.

He also made a play to unify Republicans, dropping his usual attacks on Trump and instead taking aim at Clinton in his victory speech.

What is a brokered convention?

“Either before Cleveland or at the convention in Cleveland, together, we will win a majority of the delegates, and together, we will beat Hillary Clinton in November,” Cruz said.

Ted Cruz: Now the odds-on favorite

The Texas senator’s supporters – and Republicans allied with anybody whose name isn’t Trump – crowed that Wisconsin marked a turning point in the race, especially as Trump watches delegates slip away in states he’s already won because his campaign hasn’t mastered the contest’s procedural intricacies.

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“GOP voters in Wisconsin rejected Donald Trump just like the entire Republican base will do in Cleveland this summer,” Katie Packer, a Republican strategist who helms the anti-Trump Our Principles PAC, said in a statement.

Trump has to regroup

The good news for Trump: The next stop is New York, where the billionaire calls home and is up in the polls.

But Wisconsin shows he has some brand maintenance to do.

Voters in Wisconsin just weren’t as angry, or frustrated, with Republican leadership as voters in other states. Four in 10 say they’re scared about Trump as the nominee. And many said Trump, not the man he has branded “Lyin’ Ted,” has run the most dishonest campaign.

Coming off perhaps the worst week of his campaign, Trump – who’d claimed as recently as Tuesday morning that he thought he’d win the Badger State – fell far short. He split the vote with Cruz of Republicans who said they wanted a candidate who could bring change. He was blown away by those worried about electability.

One especially concerning figure for Trump: He was blown out by 22 percentage points by Cruz in suburban areas and 13 points in urban areas, compared to just 3 points in rural areas. That’s bad news as the race moves to the densely-populated east coast.

That all explains why Trump lost, and lays out the challenges he confronts: Now he has to face down adversity and appear, in his own words, “more presidential.”

The only silver lining might have been that there was no significant gender gap – an indication Trump’s two stumbles and subsequent reversals over abortion didn’t depress his support from women.

Bern-ing hot headed into New York

Sanders got an affirmation of his momentum, with six wins in the last seven contests. He will need that momentum to stay strong if he’s going to truly knock Clinton off her heels.

To keep his streak going, Sanders will need to beat her out east – in New York on April 19, and then in some combination of Pennsylvania, Maryland, Connecticut, Rhode Island and Delaware the following week.

In those states, Sanders will be competing without his typical advantages. In Wisconsin, loyal Democrats split 50-50, but Sanders won independents 71-29. The east coast races, though, are closed contests – which means only registered Democrats can participate, limiting his ability to bring new, young voters into the process.

Photos: Former presidential candidate Bernie Sanders

US Sen. Bernie Sanders speaks at a campaign rally in Chicago in March 2019. Sanders, an independent from Vermont, is the longest-serving independent in the history of Congress.

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Photos: Former presidential candidate Bernie Sanders

Sanders, right, leads a sit-in organized by the Congress of Racial Equality in 1962. The demonstration was staged to oppose housing segregation at the University of Chicago. It was Chicago's first civil rights sit-in.

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Photos: Former presidential candidate Bernie Sanders

Sanders takes the oath of office to become the mayor of Burlington, Vermont, in 1981. He ran as an independent and won the race by 10 votes.

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Photos: Former presidential candidate Bernie Sanders

Sanders, right, tosses a baseball before a minor-league game in Vermont in 1984. US Sen. Patrick Leahy, center, was also on hand.

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Photos: Former presidential candidate Bernie Sanders

In 1987, Sanders and a group of Vermont musicians recorded a spoken-word folk album. "We Shall Overcome" was first released as a cassette that sold about 600 copies. When Sanders entered the US presidential race in 2015, the album surged in online sales. But at a CNN town hall, Sanders said, "It's the worst album ever recorded."

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Photos: Former presidential candidate Bernie Sanders

Sanders reads mail at his campaign office in Burlington in 1990. He was running for the US House of Representatives after an unsuccessful bid in 1988.

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Photos: Former presidential candidate Bernie Sanders

In 1990, Sanders defeated US Rep. Peter Smith in the race for Vermont's lone House seat. He won by 16 percentage points.

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Photos: Former presidential candidate Bernie Sanders

Sanders sits next to President Bill Clinton in 1993 before the Congressional Progressive Caucus held a meeting at the White House. Sanders co-founded the caucus in 1991 and served as its first chairman.

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Barack Obama, then a US senator, endorses Sanders' Senate bid at a rally in Burlington in 2006.

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Sanders takes part in a swearing-in ceremony at the US Capitol in January 2007. He won his Senate seat with 65% of the vote.

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Sanders chats with Dr. John Matthew, director of The Health Center in Plainfield, Vermont, in May 2007. Sanders was in Plainfield to celebrate a new source of federal funding for The Health Center.

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Photos: Former presidential candidate Bernie Sanders

Sanders speaks to reporters in 2010 about the Obama administration's push to extend Bush-era tax cuts. Three days later, Sanders held a filibuster against the reinstatement of the tax cuts. His speech, which lasted more than eight hours, was published in book form in 2011. It is called "The Speech: A Historic Filibuster on Corporate Greed and the Decline of Our Middle Class."

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Sanders and US Rep. Jeff Miller, chairman of the House Committee on Veterans' Affairs, walk to a news conference on Capitol Hill in 2014. Sanders was chairman of the Senate Committee on Veterans' Affairs.

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In March 2015, Sanders speaks in front of letters and petitions asking Congress to reject proposed cuts to Social Security and Medicare.

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Photos: Former presidential candidate Bernie Sanders

In July 2015, two months after announcing he would be seeking the Democratic Party's nomination for President, Sanders spoke to nearly 10,000 supporters in Madison, Wisconsin. "Tonight we have made a little bit of history," he said. "You may know that some 25 candidates are running for President of the United States, but tonight we have more people at a meeting for a candidate for President of the United States than any other candidate has."

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Photos: Former presidential candidate Bernie Sanders

Seconds after Sanders took the stage for a campaign rally in August 2015, a dozen protesters from Seattle's Black Lives Matter chapter jumped barricades and grabbed the microphone from the senator. Holding a banner that said "Smash Racism," two of the protesters -- Marissa Johnson, left, and Mara Jacqueline Willaford -- began to address the crowd.

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Photos: Former presidential candidate Bernie Sanders

Sanders shakes hands with Hillary Clinton at a Democratic debate in Las Vegas in October 2015. The hand shake came after Sanders' take on the Clinton email scandal. "Let me say something that may not be great politics, but the secretary is right -- and that is that the American people are sick and tired of hearing about the damn emails," Sanders said. "Enough of the emails, let's talk about the real issues facing the United States of America."

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Photos: Former presidential candidate Bernie Sanders

Sanders embraces Remaz Abdelgader, a Muslim student, during an October 2015 event at George Mason University in Fairfax, Virginia. Asked what he would do about Islamophobia in the United States, Sanders said he was determined to fight racism and "build a nation in which we all stand together as one people."

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Sanders waves while walking in a Veterans Day parade in Lebanon, New Hampshire, in November 2015.

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Sanders sits with rapper and activist Killer Mike at the Busy Bee Cafe in Atlanta in November 2015. That evening, Killer Mike introduced Sanders at a campaign event in the city. "I'm talking about a revolutionary," the rapper told supporters. "In my heart of hearts, I truly believe that Sen. Bernie Sanders is the right man to lead this country."

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Comedian Larry David and Sanders appear together on "Saturday Night Live" in February 2016. David had played Sanders in a series of sketches throughout the campaign season.

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Sanders and his wife, Jane, wave to the crowd during a primary night rally in Concord, New Hampshire, in February 2016. Sanders defeated Clinton in the New Hampshire primary with 60% of the vote, becoming the first Jewish candidate to win a presidential primary.

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Sanders speaks at a campaign rally in Ann Arbor, Michigan, in March 2016. He won the state's primary the next day, an upset that delivered a sharp blow to Clinton's hopes of quickly securing the nomination.

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Sanders speaks at a campaign event in New York's Washington Square Park in April 2016.

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Sanders speaks at a rally in Santa Monica, California, in June 2016. He pledged to stay in the Democratic race even though Clinton secured the delegates she needed to become the presumptive nominee.

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Sanders endorses Clinton at a rally in Portsmouth, New Hampshire, in July 2016.

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Sanders addresses delegates on the first day of the Democratic National Convention in July 2016.

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Sanders brings a giant printout of one of Donald Trump's tweets to a Senate debate in January 2017. In the tweet, Trump had promised not to cut Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid.

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Sanders thanks supporters after winning re-election to the Senate in November 2018.

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Sanders looks at his notes as he watches President Trump deliver the State of the Union address in February 2019. That month, Sanders announced that he would be running for president again.

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Sanders hugs a young supporter during a campaign rally in Los Angeles in March 2019.

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Sanders addresses the audience at a CNN town hall in Washington in April 2019.

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Sanders speaks next to former Vice President Joe Biden at the first Democratic debates in June 2019.

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Sanders raises his fist as he holds a rally in Santa Monica, California, in July 2019.

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Sanders grabs the hand of US Sen. Elizabeth Warren during the Democratic debates in Detroit in July 2019.

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Photos: Former presidential candidate Bernie Sanders

Sanders campaigns at the University of New Hampshire in September 2019. A few days later, he took himself off the campaign trail after doctors treated a blockage in one of his arteries. Sanders suffered a heart attack, his campaign confirmed.

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US Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez introduces Sanders at a New York rally after endorsing him for president in October 2019.

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Photos: Former presidential candidate Bernie Sanders

In a tense and dramatic exchange moments after a Democratic debate, Warren accused Sanders of calling her a liar on national television. Sanders responded that it was Warren who called him a liar. Earlier in the debate, the two disagreed on whether Sanders told Warren, during a private dinner in 2018, that he didn't believe a woman could win the presidency.

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Sanders laughs during a primary-night rally in Manchester, New Hampshire, in February 2020. Sanders won the primary, just as he did in 2016.

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A triumphant Sanders raises his fist in San Antonio after he was projected to win the Nevada caucuses.

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Sanders and former Vice President Joe Biden talk before a Democratic debate in Charleston, South Carolina, in February 2020.

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Sanders addresses supporters during a campaign rally in Grand Rapids, Michigan, in March 2020.

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Sanders speaks to reporters in Burlington, Vermont, a day after Super Tuesday II. Sanders said it "was not a good night for our campaign from a delegate point of view" but that he looked forward to staying in the race and taking on Joe Biden in an upcoming debate.

PHOTO: Charles Krupa/AP

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Biden greets Sanders with an elbow bump before the start of a debate in Washington in March 2020. They went with an elbow bump instead of a handshake because of the coronavirus pandemic.

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Exit polls: Wisconsin primary voters say trade leads to job loss

What Wisconsin gives Sanders is the ability to keep raising big dollars, and keep his supporters energized in states where organizational work will be especially important. He has outraised Clinton, $109 million to $75 million, in the last three months.

Before heading east, Sanders made a stop in Laramie, Wyoming, where he’ll try to make it seven out of eight states when that state holds its caucuses Saturday.

“I was told that about 5,000 people participated in the last Wyoming caucus. It looks like all of them are here tonight,” he joked as he started his speech, leaning hard into one buzzword: “Momentum.”

“I know a little bit about New York because I spent the first 18 years of my life in Brooklyn, New York. Now please keep this a secret – do not tell Secretary Clinton; she’s getting a little nervous and I don’t want her to get more nervous – but I believe we’ve got an excellent chance to win New York and a lot of delegates in that state,” he said.

Clinton waiting for Sanders

Wisconsin was the kind of state – overwhelmingly white, and independents are allowed into party primaries – that Sanders had to win. And he did: He crushed Clinton among voters 18-29 by his standard margin of 82% to 18%, and won those 30-44, two to one. He won white voters, 59% to 41%. That number was flipped among non-whites, but in Wisconsin, 83% of the Democratic electorate was white.

States like New York that are far more diverse have proven to be Clinton country. And the former secretary of state is wasting no time welcoming Sanders back to the state where he grew up.

Pennsylvania poll: Trump, Clinton lead rivals

Readers of The New York Daily News will see a front-page story Wednesday denouncing “Bernie’s Sandy Hook shame.” Sanders Tuesday faced blistering criticism over his interview with the newspaper’s editorial board, where he seemed unable to go beyond top-level talking points on his core policy issues, like breaking up the big banks.

Bernie Sanders feeling media heat after new interview

In an unusual move, Clinton’s campaign sent out the entire Sanders transcript as part of a fundraising email.

“We’ve said for a long time that this primary is about who’s really going to be able to get things done. And from reading this interview, you get the impression Senator Sanders hasn’t thought very much about that. In fact, even on his signature issue of breaking up the banks, he’s unable to answer basic questions about how he’d go about doing it, and even seems uncertain whether a president does or doesn’t already have that authority under existing law,” Clinton aide Christina Reynolds wrote.

In Wisconsin, Clinton says Sanders is a Democrat-come-lately

The GOP’s battleground woes

If Gov. Scott Walker’s experience of three statewide wins in four years shows anything, it’s that Republicans can win in Wisconsin.

But Cruz and Trump may have an uphill climb in November.

Exit polls showed that only 62% of Republicans said they’d vote for Trump in the fall. Another 10% said if he’s the nominee, they’d support Clinton, while 17% said they’d back a third-party candidate and 8% said they wouldn’t vote at all.

For Cruz, the numbers were similar: 66% said they’d vote for him, while 6% said they’d back Clinton. But 18% said they’d pick a third-party candidate, and another 6% would stay home.

It’s an ominous sign for the fall. Wisconsin isn’t a must-win state for a Republican in the general election – but it is winnable, and, like Illinois, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire, it’s home to a vulnerable senator (Ron Johnson) who the GOP hopes will be part of a governing majority next year.

Those exit poll numbers are, in theory, good for John Kasich, because they bolster his argument that he’s the only electable Republican left standing.

But the Ohio governor has his own problems. The same factors that hurt Trump – Wisconsin is highly educated and less angry – should have helped Kasich. Yet he finished a distant third, once again failing to lend any credibility to his case for staying in the race.