John Kerry's Beijing reality check

Story highlights

Washington has long seen Beijing as holding the most meaningful card when it comes to changing Pyongyang's behavior

But China, despite its increasing annoyance with North Korea, is apparently unsure of how to control Kim's erratic regime

(CNN) —

Secretary of State John Kerry’s diplomatic hot streak faced a major reality check Wednesday.

He landed in Beijing aiming to convince a reluctant China to ratchet up pressure and punishments on its recalcitrant nuclear-armed ally North Korea. But the limits of American influence with a rising regional giant, questions over just how much influence even China has over North Korea’s unpredictable behavior and the administration’s own ebbing time and political capital make the chance of meaningful progress on one of the word’s most vexing security threats a long shot.

That doesn’t mean Kerry, who has made a habit of what some see as solitary, quixotic diplomatic endeavors, isn’t trying.

In a joint press conference with his counterpart, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, Kerry said the international community could get tougher with Pyongyang.

READ: Kerry presses China over North Korea, South China Sea

“With all due respect, more significant and impactful sanctions were put in place against Iran, which did not have a nuclear weapon, than against North Korea, which does,” he said. Challenging China further, Kerry said, “All nations, particularly those who seek a global leadership role, or have a global leadership role, have a responsibility to deal with this threat.”

But China’s response did not seem to indicate much movement in their position.

Wang called China’s response to North Korea’s nuclear activity “clear cut” and “responsible.”

“Our position will not be swayed by events or temporary mood of the moment,” he said. “We have delivered on our obligation.”

Escalating U.S. rhetoric

Kerry described North Korea to reporters this weekend as a “clearly reckless and dangerous, evolving security threat in the hands of somebody who is questionable in terms of judgment and has proven thus to China.” U.S rhetoric toward impoverished and isolated North Korea and its young leader Kim Jong Un – already scathing – only intensified after it launched a fresh nuclear test earlier this month.

The test – which Pyongyang said was a hydrogen bomb and U.S. scientists assessed was a more modest device – and a string of missile launches underscore a rising strategic threat. It is no longer out of the question that in the future, North Korea could threaten the U.S. mainland, as well as U.S. allies in the region, with a nuclear device miniaturized on top of a missile.

The clear subtext of Kerry’s comments is that the United States believes China has an obligation, as an increasingly influential and important power, to roll back its unpredictable neighbor’s nuclear arsenal and to halt provocations that are rattling U.S. regional allies Japan and South Korea.

READ: Political fallout for Hillary Clinton after North Korea’s nuke test

Washington has long seen Beijing as holding the most meaningful card when it comes to changing Pyongyang’s behavior, given its status as North Korea’s top trading partner and an alliance forged in blood during the 1950-53 Korean war. But Washington has often been disappointed that Beijing has not done more to control the North Koreans, although U.S. officials do acknowledge that it is becoming increasingly frustrated with its troublesome ally.

Kerry is just the latest in a long line of senior U.S. officials from successive administrations to arrive in Beijing seeking a more proactive Chinese role on North Korea.

But China, despite its increasing annoyance with North Korea, is apparently unsure of how to control Kim’s erratic regime and is worried about coming down harder against Pyongyang for a host of its own strategic, political and economic reasons.

For now, it appears China’s anger at Kim’s behavior is not yet trumped by its unease about what may transpire if it accepts U.S. demands to get much tougher, perhaps by curtailing food and energy exports vital to North Korea.

China concerned about clout

Leaders in Beijing, for one thing, may be concerned that if they did act, continued defiance by Pyongyang would only underline their declining clout.

“China is dealing with what is a loose cannon now but might, by attempting to engage in tougher love toward Pyongyang, end up with a client state that is completely unrestrained,” said Ted Galen Carpenter, a foreign policy specialist at the Cato Institute. “Then Kim’s regime truly is unconstrained and can engage in conduct that is beyond reckless.”

Top officials in Beijing, who prize political order above all to preserve Communist Party rule, have also long feared a potentially destabilizing refugee exodus into Chinese territory by millions of starving North Koreans should the regime in Pyongyang fall.