Story highlights
- Washington has long seen Beijing as holding the most meaningful card when it comes to changing Pyongyang's behavior
- But China, despite its increasing annoyance with North Korea, is apparently unsure of how to control Kim's erratic regime
(CNN)Secretary of State John Kerry's diplomatic hot streak faced a major reality check Wednesday.
He landed in Beijing aiming to convince a reluctant China to ratchet up pressure and punishments on its recalcitrant nuclear-armed ally North Korea. But the limits of American influence with a rising regional giant, questions over just how much influence even China has over North Korea's unpredictable behavior and the administration's own ebbing time and political capital make the chance of meaningful progress on one of the word's most vexing security threats a long shot.
That doesn't mean Kerry, who has made a habit of what some see as solitary, quixotic diplomatic endeavors, isn't trying.
In a joint press conference with his counterpart, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, Kerry said the international community could get tougher with Pyongyang.
"With all due respect, more significant and impactful sanctions were put in place against Iran, which did not have a nuclear weapon, than against North Korea, which does," he said. Challenging China further, Kerry said, "All nations, particularly those who seek a global leadership role, or have a global leadership role, have a responsibility to deal with this threat."
But China's response did not seem to indicate much movement in their position.
Wang called China's response to North Korea's nuclear activity "clear cut" and "responsible."
"Our position will not be swayed by events or temporary mood of the moment," he said. "We have delivered on our obligation."
Escalating U.S. rhetoric
Kerry described North Korea to reporters this weekend as a "clearly reckless and dangerous, evolving security threat in the hands of somebody who is questionable in terms of judgment and has proven thus to China." U.S rhetoric toward impoverished and isolated North Korea and its young leader Kim Jong Un -- already scathing -- only intensified after it launched a fresh nuclear test earlier this month.
The test -- which Pyongyang said was a hydrogen bomb and U.S. scientists assessed was a more modest device -- and a string of missile launches underscore a rising strategic threat. It is no longer out of the question that in the future, North Korea could threaten the U.S. mainland, as well as U.S. allies in the region, with a nuclear device miniaturized on top of a missile.
The clear subtext of Kerry's comments is that the United States believes China has an obligation, as an increasingly influential and important power, to roll back its unpredictable neighbor's nuclear arsenal and to halt provocations that are rattling U.S. regional allies Japan and South Korea.
Washington has long seen Beijing as holding the most meaningful card when it comes to changing Pyongyang's behavior, given its status as North Korea's top trading partner and an alliance forged in blood during the 1950-53 Korean war. But Washington has often been disappointed that Beijing has not done more to control the North Koreans, although U.S. officials do acknowledge that it is becoming increasingly frustrated with its troublesome ally.
Kerry is just the latest in a long line of senior U.S. officials from successive administrations to arrive in Beijing seeking a more proactive Chinese role on North Korea.
But China, despite its increasing annoyance with North Korea, is apparently unsure of how to control Kim's erratic regime and is worried about coming down harder against Pyongyang for a host of its own strategic, political and economic reasons.
For now, it appears China's anger at Kim's behavior is not yet trumped by its unease about what may transpire if it accepts U.S. demands to get much tougher, perhaps by curtailing food and energy exports vital to North Korea.
China concerned about clout
Leaders in Beijing, for one thing, may be concerned that if they did act, continued defiance by Pyongyang would only underline their declining clout.
"China is dealing with what is a loose cannon now but might, by attempting to engage in tougher love toward Pyongyang, end up with a client state that is completely unrestrained," said Ted Galen Carpenter, a foreign policy specialist at the Cato Institute. "Then Kim's regime truly is unconstrained and can engage in conduct that is beyond reckless."
Top officials in Beijing, who prize political order above all to preserve Communist Party rule, have also long feared a potentially destabilizing refugee exodus into Chinese territory by millions of starving North Koreans should the regime in Pyongyang fall.
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un meets with North Korea's first female fighter jet pilots in this undated photo released by the country's state media on Monday, June 22. He called the women "heroes of Korea" and "flowers of the sky."
Hide Caption
1 of 55
Kim stands on the snow-covered top of Mount Paektu in North Korea in a photo taken by North Korean newspaper Rodong Sinmun on April 18 and released the next day by South Korean news agency Yonhap. Kim scaled the country's highest mountain, North Korean state-run media reported, arriving at the summit to tell soldiers that the hike provides mental energy more powerful than nuclear weapons.
Hide Caption
2 of 55
Kim Jong Un, center, poses with soldiers on the snow-covered top of Mount Paektu in an April 18 photo released by South Korean news agency Yonhap.
Hide Caption
3 of 55
Kim visits the Kumsusan Palace of the Sun in Pyongyang, North Korea, on April 15 to celebrate the 103rd birth anniversary of his grandfather, North Korean founder Kim Il Sung.
Hide Caption
4 of 55
Kim inspects a drill for seizing an island at an undisclosed location in North Korea in an undated picture released by North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency on February 21.
Hide Caption
5 of 55
Kim speaks during a meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Workers' Party of Korea in Pyongyang, North Korea, in this photo released February 19 by the state-run Korean Central News Agency.
Hide Caption
6 of 55
A picture released by the North Korean Central News Agency shows North Korean leader Kim Jong Un appearing without his cane at an event with military commanders in Pyongyang on Tuesday, November 4. Kim, who recently disappeared from public view for about six weeks, had a cyst removed from his right ankle, a lawmaker told CNN.
Hide Caption
7 of 55
Kim is seen walking with a cane in this image released Thursday, October 30, by the state-run Korean Central News Agency.
Hide Caption
8 of 55
Kim sits in the pilot's seat of a fighter jet during the inspection.
Hide Caption
9 of 55
This undated photo, released Tuesday, October 14, by the KCNA, shows Kim inspecting a housing complex in Pyongyang, North Korea. International speculation about Kim went into overdrive after he failed to attend events on Friday, October 10, the 65th anniversary of the Workers' Party. He hadn't been seen in public since he reportedly attended a concert with his wife on September 3.
Hide Caption
10 of 55
A picture released by the KCNA shows Kim and his wife watching a performance by the Moranbong Band on Wednesday, September 3, in Pyongyang.
Hide Caption
11 of 55
Kim tours a front-line military unit in this image released Wednesday, July 16, by the KCNA.
Hide Caption
12 of 55
Kim poses for a photo as he oversees a tactical rocket-firing drill in June.
Hide Caption
13 of 55
Kim watches a tactical rocket-firing drill in June.
Hide Caption
14 of 55
A North Korean soldier patrols the bank of the Yalu River, which separates the North Korean town of Sinuiju from the Chinese border town of Dandong, on Saturday, April 26.
Hide Caption
15 of 55
In this photo released Thursday, April 24, by the Korean Central News Agency, Kim smiles with female soldiers after inspecting a rocket-launching drill at an undisclosed location.
Hide Caption
16 of 55
A picture released Tuesday, March 18, by the KCNA shows Kim attending a shooting practice at a military academy in Pyongyang.
Hide Caption
17 of 55
A North Korean soldier uses binoculars on Thursday, February 6, to look at South Korea from the border village of Panmunjom, which has separated the two Koreas since the Korean War.
Hide Caption
18 of 55
A North Korean soldier kicks a pole along the banks of the Yalu River on Tuesday, February 4.
Hide Caption
19 of 55
A photo released by the KCNA on Thursday, January 23, shows the North Korean leader inspecting an army unit during a winter drill.
Hide Caption
20 of 55
Kim inspects the command of an army unit in this undated photo released Sunday, January 12, by the KCNA.
Hide Caption
21 of 55
Kim visits an army unit in this undated photo.
Hide Caption
22 of 55
Kim inspects a military factory in this undated picture released by the KCNA in May 2013.
Hide Caption
23 of 55
Kim visits the Ministry of People's Security in 2013 as part of the country's May Day celebrations.
Hide Caption
24 of 55
A North Korean soldier, near Sinuiju, gestures to stop photographers from taking photos in April 2013.
Hide Caption
25 of 55
North Korean soldiers patrol near the Yalu River in April 2013.
Hide Caption
26 of 55
Kim is briefed by his generals in this undated photo. On the wall is a map titled "Plan for the strategic forces to target mainland U.S."
Hide Caption
27 of 55
Kim works during a briefing in this undated photo.
Hide Caption
28 of 55
In this KCNA photo, Kim inspects naval drills at an undisclosed location on North Korea's east coast in March 2013.
Hide Caption
29 of 55
Kim, with North Korean soldiers, makes his way to an observation post in March 2013.
Hide Caption
30 of 55
Kim uses a pair of binoculars to look south from the Jangjae Islet Defense Detachment, near South Korea's Taeyonphyong Island, in March 2013.
Hide Caption
31 of 55
Kim is greeted by a soldier's family as he inspects the Jangjae Islet Defense Detachment in March 2013.
Hide Caption
32 of 55
Kim is surrounded by soldiers during a visit to the Mu Islet Hero Defense Detachment, also near Taeyonphyong Island, in March 2013.
Hide Caption
33 of 55
Kim arrives at Jangjae Islet by boat to meet with soldiers of the Jangjae Islet Defense Detachment in March 2013.
Hide Caption
34 of 55
Soldiers in the North Korean army train at an undisclosed location in March 2013.
Hide Caption
35 of 55
In a photo released by the official North Korean news agency in December 2012, Kim celebrates a rocket's launch with staff from the satellite control center in Pyongyang.
Hide Caption
36 of 55
Kim, center, poses in this undated picture released by North Korea's official news agency in November 2012.
Hide Caption
37 of 55
Kim visits the Rungna People's Pleasure Ground, under construction in Pyongyang, in a photo released in July 2012 by the KCNA.
Hide Caption
38 of 55
A crowd watches as statues of North Korean founder Kim Il Sung and his son Kim Jong Il are unveiled during a ceremony in Pyongyang in April 2012.
Hide Caption
39 of 55
A North Korean soldier stands guard in front of an UNHA III rocket at the Tangachai-ri Space Center in April 2012.
Hide Caption
40 of 55
In April 2012, Pyongyang launched a long-range rocket that broke apart and fell into the sea. Here, the UNHA III rocket is pictured on its launch pad in Tang Chung Ri, North Korea.
Hide Caption
41 of 55
– A closer look at the UNHA III rocket on its launch pad in Tang Chung Ri, North Korea.
Hide Caption
42 of 55
A military vehicle participates in a parade in Pyongyang in April 2012.
Hide Caption
43 of 55
North Korean soldiers relax at the end of an official ceremony attended by leader Kim Jong Un at a stadium in Pyongyang in April 2012.
Hide Caption
44 of 55
Kim Jong Un applauds as he watches a military parade in Pyongyang in April 2012.
Hide Caption
45 of 55
A North Korean soldier stands on a balcony in Pyongyang in April 2012.
Hide Caption
46 of 55
North Korean soldiers march during a military parade in Pyongyang in April 2012.
Hide Caption
47 of 55
Soldiers board a bus outside a theater in Pyongyang in April 2012.
Hide Caption
48 of 55
North Korean performers sit below a screen showing images of leader Kim Jong Un in Pyongyang in April 2012.
Hide Caption
49 of 55
North Korean soldiers salute during a military parade in Pyongyang in April 2012.
Hide Caption
50 of 55
North Korean soldiers listen to a speech during an official ceremony attended by leader Kim Jong Un at a stadium in Pyongyang in April 2012.
Hide Caption
51 of 55
Members of a North Korean military band gather following an official ceremony at the Kim Il Sung stadium in Pyongyang in April 2012.
Hide Caption
52 of 55
North Korean military personnel watch a performance in Pyongyang in April 2012.
Hide Caption
53 of 55
A North Korean controller is seen along the railway line between the Pyongyang and North Pyongan provinces in April 2012.
Hide Caption
54 of 55
A North Korean military honor guard stands at attention at Pyongyang's airport in May 2001.
Hide Caption
55 of 55
And the prospect of a unified Korea, dominated by Seoul in alliance with the United States, is an unappetizing one for Beijing. Chinese officials drew lessons from watching NATO forces expand east in Europe after the fall of the Soviet Union. Their historic hypersensitivity to a strategic encirclement in their own Asian neighborhood, which may have been exacerbated by the U.S. "pivot" to the region, means they have no desire for a similar outcome on the Korean peninsula.
Kerry, whose recent diplomatic victories include the conclusion of an Iran nuclear deal and the release of U.S. Navy sailors and prisoners from Iranian custody, the re-establishment of ties with Cuba after decades of estrangement and a historic international agreement on climate change, has given less attention to Asia than his predecessor Hillary Clinton.
His focus on other regions has disappointed some Asian diplomats given that he's no stranger to the region, having famously fought with distinction in the Vietnam War, played a leading role in the re-establishment of diplomatic relations with Hanoi and helped set up a tribunal for surviving Khmer Rouge leaders in Cambodia while in the Senate.
So he may be keen to put a personal stamp on the Obama administration's Asia policy, which has so far yielded a massive Trans-Pacific Partnership designed to ensure Western rather than China-dictated standards underpin the regional trading system; tightened alliances South Korea, Japan, the Philippines and Australia amid Chinese territorial muscle-flexing in the East and South China Seas; and helped steer Myanmar out of isolation and through a political reform process.
U.S. reaches out to Southeast Asia
On this trip, Kerry arrived in China Tuesday after stops in Laos and Cambodia, as the administration makes significant strides in strengthening cooperation with Southeast Asian nations that seek a counter-balance to a rising and increasingly assertive China.
The swing came before Obama next month holds an unprecedented Southeast Asian summit with regional leaders at the Sunnylands retreat in California. He will also become the first U.S. president to visit Laos this year, completing a 10-nation sweep through ASEAN countries.
Senior U.S. officials deny that U.S. Asia policy has anything to do with surrounding China, saying the rebalancing is an attempt to show that Washington intends to be a player in the most dynamic and economically promising region of the world and that the Sunnylands summit merely puts a capstone on that process.
"We want to send a message to the region and whoever the next president is that we should be engaging Southeast Asia at this level," said a senior administration official.
But China has viewed much of the Asian pivot with suspicion. And blunt U.S. threats of expanded sanctions against North Korea if Beijing fails to rein in its ruthless young leader could set the stage for contentious talks with Kerry.
Kerry's arrival in Beijing took place shortly after a visit by Deputy Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who warned that if China did not act, Washington would have no choice but to broaden its own punitive measures against Pyongyang.
The measures "won't be directed at China, but China probably won't like them," Blinken said in an interview with The New York Times, in a possible hint that Washington could sanction Chinese entities doing business with North Korea.
At the same time, China has made it clear to U.S. officials, foreign policy experts and journalists that although its patience is running out with North Korea, it believes it is up to the United States to configure a diplomatic initiative toward Pyongyang. Beijing has often complained that the United States is too confrontational toward the North but it is not clear exactly what U.S. concessions Beijing would demand in return for putting more pressure on Pyongyang.
In any case, the United States is unlikely to take such steps.
For starters, the Obama administration -- and ones before it -- have tried to engage North Korea and failed.
The Stalinist state continues to spurn six-nation nuclear talks and has tested three nuclear devices during the Obama administration's tenure.
North Korea is already one of the most sanctioned nations in the world. Traditional carrot-and-stick diplomacy like that used by the administration with Iran is unlikely to work with Pyongyang, given the absence of a willing negotiating partner on the other side of the table.
North Korea reluctant to bargain
North Korea's paranoid and extreme regime has proven itself reluctant to bargain and prone to cheating on agreements, seems to have little desire to escape political isolation, and has demonstrated that it will starve its own people to ensure its own survival.
A military option, meanwhile, is unthinkable given that North Korean rockets could rain destruction on Seoul -- not to mention the U.S. garrison of nearly 30,000 U.S troops -- within a few minutes notice.
Pyongyang's defiance and the lack of any major diplomatic effort underway to coax it back to the negotiating table over its expanding nuclear arsenal means that Obama, like George W. Bush before him, will likely hand over to a new president one of the most volatile foreign policy challenges for the United States.
Indeed, it is unclear whether in its final year, the administration has the inclination, patience or resourcefulness to mount an initiative on North Korea that would bear comparison to its Iran or Cuba diplomacy.
"Our policy has largely been on autopilot, and unfortunately I don't think that is likely to change in a major way," Carpenter, the Cato foreign policy expert, said.
Given that the administration does not have much political capital left, Carpenter said, changing policy toward North Korea would "require a great deal of imagination on the part of policymakers."
He concluded, "I don't see that kind of imagination."