- Dan Pfeiffer: GOP faces an uphill battle in the Electoral College and most of its leading candidates seem ill-suited to overcoming that
- He says Rubio may be best positioned to challenge the Democratic candidate but so far voter enthusiasm for him seems slight
1) As Dan Balz pointed out
in The Washington Post a few months ago, if the Republican nominee wins the same share of the white vote in 2016 that Mitt Romney won in 2012, he or she would need to receive 30% of the non-white vote to win the White House. Romney won 17% of the non-white vote in '12, so this a tall order.
2) In 2012, President Barack Obama won 332 electoral votes to Romney's 206. The Republican nominee could flip Florida, Ohio and Virginia -- the three biggest swing states -- into the red column and would still lose to a Democrat 272-268.
The point is that the Republican nominee has to have significantly broader appeal than Romney (who was the most broadly appealing GOP candidate in '12).
Being a little better, a little defter and having a few less vulnerabilities will not be enough to return a Republican to the White House.
Given those facts, this is a summary based on various conversations, text chains, emails and tweets over the last many months of how the Democrats that elected Barack Obama twice think about the leading Republican candidates (in no particular order):
The biggest task for the Democratic nominee is turning out the "Obama Coalition" of Latinos, young voters, African Americans and women. Thanks to his inflammatory rhetoric and misogynistic statements, Trump would go a long way to accomplishing that goal all on his own. A