- Bush, who was not in the top spot before the CNN GOP debate last week, has 25% odds to win the nomination
- Donald Trump is currently in fourth place on the market
Bush, who was not in the top spot before the CNN GOP debate last week, has 25% odds to win the nomination. His odds on the market haven't been this high since before front-runner Donald Trump took the spotlight from the other GOP candidates. Trump had the best odds to clinch the nomination leading up to the CNN debate last week, but his odds have fallen since then and he is currently in fourth place on the market.
Bush's 25% is followed by Sen. Marco Rubio at 23%, Carly Fiorina in third with 17% and Trump in the fourth spot at 15%.
On the other side of the partisan line, Hillary Clinton still has the best odds to win the Democratic nomination with 52%, according to the Political Prediction Market. Joe Biden, who is still on the sidelines of the 2016 race, has better odds, 26%, than Bernie Sanders, who has 21%.
Biden has said after his son's recent death, he may not have the "emotional energy"
to mount a run. He'll likely have to make a decision before the first Democratic primary debate hosted by CNN on Oct. 13.
Among the most likely candidates to suspend or drop their campaigns, South Carolina Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham is at 85% odds to drop out of the race by Nov. 1 despite being considered a breakout star at the undercard CNN debate last week. Former Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania is second with odds at 83% to drop out by the end of next month, and Bobby Jindal is third with odds at 80%.
But the dropout market has been caught by surprise. Former Texas Gov. Rick Perry was the most likely to suspend his campaign first when he dropped out of the GOP race earlier this month. But Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker was at less than 10% chance to suspend his campaign by Nov. 1 when he dropped out of the race Monday
, citing an inability to raise money.
The Political Prediction Market, which is hosted by CNN, is game that factors polls and other elements and invites users to predict where the election will go. The markets change as the public weighs in on the increasing or decreasing chance that a candidate or party wins or loses an election.