Story highlights
- Clinton trails Ben Carson in a hypothetical general election match-up and runs about even with Jeb Bush and Donald Trump
- The margins have tightened as Clinton has lost support among women over the last month
Washington (CNN)Hillary Clinton's lead in the race for the Democratic nomination has fallen to just 10 points, and at the same time, her advantage in hypothetical general election matchups against the top Republican contenders has vanished, a new CNN/ORC poll has found.
The new poll finds Clinton with 37% support among Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters, down 10 points since August, followed by Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders at 27% and Vice President Joe Biden at 20%. Sanders' support is about the same as it was in August, making Biden the only candidate to post significant gains in the last month. His support is up 6 points in the last month as he weighs making a run for the presidency.
Behind the top three, former Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley holds 3%, former Virginia Sen. Jim Webb is at 2% and former Rhode Island Gov. Lincoln Chafee logs less than 1% support.
Hillary Clinton accepts the Democratic Party's nomination for president at the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia on July 28. The former first lady, U.S. senator and secretary of state was the first woman to lead the presidential ticket of a major political party.
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Before marrying Bill Clinton, she was Hillary Rodham. Here she attends Wellesley College in Massachusetts. Her commencement speech at Wellesley's graduation ceremony in 1969 attracted national attention. After graduating, she attended Yale Law School.
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Rodham was a lawyer on the House Judiciary Committee, whose work led to impeachment charges against President Richard Nixon in 1974.
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In 1975, Rodham married Bill Clinton, whom she met at Yale Law School. He became the governor of Arkansas in 1978. In 1980, the couple had a daughter, Chelsea.
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Arkansas' first lady, now using the name Hillary Rodham Clinton, wears her inaugural ball gown in 1985.
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The Clintons celebrate Bill's inauguration in Little Rock, Arkansas, in 1991. He was governor from 1983 to 1992, when he was elected President.
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Bill Clinton comforts his wife on the set of "60 Minutes" after a stage light broke loose from the ceiling and knocked her down in January 1992.
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In June 1992, Clinton uses a sewing machine designed to eliminate back and wrist strain. She had just given a speech at a convention of the International Ladies' Garment Workers Union.
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During the 1992 presidential campaign, Clinton jokes with her husband's running mate, Al Gore, and Gore's wife, Tipper, aboard a campaign bus.
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Clinton accompanies her husband as he takes the oath of office in January 1993.
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The Clintons share a laugh on Capitol Hill in 1993.
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Clinton unveils the renovated Blue Room of the White House in 1995.
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Clinton waves to the media in January 1996 as she arrives for an appearance before a grand jury in Washington. The first lady was subpoenaed to testify as a witness in the investigation of the Whitewater land deal in Arkansas. The Clintons' business investment was investigated, but ultimately they were cleared of any wrongdoing.
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The Clintons hug as Bill is sworn in for a second term as President.
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The first lady holds up a Grammy Award, which she won for her audiobook "It Takes a Village" in 1997.
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The Clintons dance on a beach in the U.S. Virgin Islands in January 1998. Later that month, Bill Clinton was accused of having a sexual relationship with former White House intern Monica Lewinsky.
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Clinton looks on as her husband discusses the Monica Lewinsky scandal in the Roosevelt Room of the White House on January 26, 1998. Clinton declared, "I did not have sexual relations with that woman." In August of that year, Clinton testified before a grand jury and admitted to having "inappropriate intimate contact" with Lewinsky, but he said it did not constitute sexual relations because they had not had intercourse. He was impeached in December on charges of perjury and obstruction of justice.
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The first family walks with their dog, Buddy, as they leave the White House for a vacation in August 1998.
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President Clinton makes a statement at the White House in December 1998, thanking members of Congress who voted against his impeachment. The Senate trial ended with an acquittal in February 1999.
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Clinton announces in February 2000 that she will seek the U.S. Senate seat in New York. She was elected later that year.
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Clinton makes her first appearance on the Senate Environment and Natural Resources Committee.
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Sen. Clinton comforts Maren Sarkarat, a woman who lost her husband in the September 11 terrorist attacks, during a ground-zero memorial in October 2001.
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Clinton holds up her book "Living History" before a signing in Auburn Hills, Michigan, in 2003.
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Clinton and another presidential hopeful, U.S. Sen. Barack Obama, applaud at the start of a Democratic debate in 2007.
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Obama and Clinton talk on the plane on their way to a rally in Unity, New Hampshire, in June 2008. She had recently ended her presidential campaign and endorsed Obama.
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Obama is flanked by Clinton and Vice President-elect Joe Biden at a news conference in Chicago in December 2008. He had designated Clinton to be his secretary of state.
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Clinton, as secretary of state, greets Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin during a meeting just outside Moscow in March 2010.
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The Clintons pose on the day of Chelsea's wedding to Marc Mezvinsky in July 2010.
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In this photo provided by the White House, Obama, Clinton, Biden and other members of the national security team receive an update on the mission against Osama bin Laden in May 2011.
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Clinton checks her Blackberry inside a military plane after leaving Malta in October 2011. In 2015, The New York Times reported that Clinton exclusively used a personal email account during her time as secretary of state. The account, fed through its own server, raises security and preservation concerns. Clinton later said she used a private domain out of "convenience," but admits in retrospect "it would have been better" to use multiple emails.
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Clinton arrives for a group photo before a forum with the Gulf Cooperation Council in March 2012. The forum was held in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
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Obama and Clinton bow during the transfer-of-remains ceremony marking the return of four Americans, including U.S. Ambassador Christopher Stevens, who were killed in Benghazi, Libya, in September 2012.
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Clinton ducks after a woman threw a shoe at her while she was delivering remarks at a recycling trade conference in Las Vegas in 2014.
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Clinton, now running for President again, performs with Jimmy Fallon during a "Tonight Show" skit in September 2015.
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Clinton testifies about the Benghazi attack during a House committee meeting in October 2015. "I would imagine I have thought more about what happened than all of you put together," she said during the 11-hour hearing. "I have lost more sleep than all of you put together. I have been wracking my brain about what more could have been done or should have been done." Months earlier, Clinton had acknowledged a "systemic breakdown" as cited by an Accountability Review Board, and she said that her department was taking additional steps to increase security at U.S. diplomatic facilities.
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U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders shares a lighthearted moment with Clinton during a Democratic presidential debate in October 2015. It came after Sanders gave his take on the Clinton email scandal. "The American people are sick and tired of hearing about the damn emails," Sanders said. "Enough of the emails. Let's talk about the real issues facing the United States of America."
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Clinton is reflected in a teleprompter during a campaign rally in Alexandria, Virginia, in October 2015.
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Clinton walks on her stage with her family after winning the New York primary in April.
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After Clinton became the Democratic Party's presumptive nominee, this photo was posted to her official Twitter account. "To every little girl who dreams big: Yes, you can be anything you want -- even president," Clinton said. "Tonight is for you."
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Obama hugs Clinton after he gave a speech at the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia. The president said Clinton was ready to be commander in chief. "For four years, I had a front-row seat to her intelligence, her judgment and her discipline," he said, referring to her stint as his secretary of state.
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Clinton arrives at a 9/11 commemoration ceremony in New York on September 11. Clinton, who was diagnosed with pneumonia two days before, left early after feeling ill. A video appeared to show her stumble as Secret Service agents helped her into a van.
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Clinton addresses a campaign rally in Cleveland on November 6, two days before Election Day. She went on to lose Ohio -- and the election -- to her Republican opponent, Donald Trump.
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After conceding the presidency to Trump in a phone call earlier, Clinton addresses supporters and campaign workers in New York on Wednesday, November 9. Her defeat marked a stunning end to a campaign that appeared poised to make her the first woman elected US president.
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In the general election matchups, Clinton trails former neurosurgeon Ben Carson by a significant margin (51% Carson to 46% Clinton among registered voters) while running about evenly with both former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (49% Bush to 47% Clinton) and businessman Donald Trump (48% back each).
The shift away from the former secretary of state stems from shrinking support among women. Clinton's advantage among women has disappeared in matchups against Bush and Carson. Facing Trump, Clinton still carries women by a large, though tighter, margin. In August, 60% of women favored Clinton to 37% for Trump, but that's narrowed slightly to 55% Clinton, 41% Trump now. Clinton's advantage among women against Trump is fueled by independent women, despite that group shifting away from Clinton in the head-to-head against Bush.
The poll suggests Republican women have consolidated their support around their party's front-runners in the last month, and are now more apt to back both Bush and Trump than they were a month ago. At the same time, the near-universal support for Clinton among Democratic women has softened slightly, bringing it more in-line with her support among Democratic men.
With Biden's consideration of a run for the White House gaining attention, the poll finds he outperforms Clinton in these hypothetical general election matchups, topping Bush and Trump while falling just slightly behind Carson. Biden tops Trump by 10 points (54% to 44% among registered voters), leads Bush by 8 points (52% to 44%) and is 3 points behind Carson (50% Carson to 47% Biden). Biden's advantages against Bush and Trump rest on the same kind of gender gap that Clinton appears to have lost: Biden leads Bush by 16 points among women while tying him among men, he tops Trump by 26 points among women while trailing him by 7 among men, and he leads Carson by 5 among women while trailing by 10 among men.
The consigliere - John Podesta, one of the top liberal minds in politics, will serve as Clinton's campaign chairman. A former White House chief of staff for Bill Clinton and a top counselor for President Obama, Podesta has the stature to speak truth to power. His influential role in early structural and strategic decisions suggests that he will be a far more hands-on campaign chairman than most.
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The manager - Robby Mook impressed Clinton-land when he ran Hillary Clinton's 2008 campaign to primary wins in Nevada, Ohio and Indiana, and again when he led Terry McAuliffe - a longtime Clinton friend and confidant - to the Virginia governor's mansion in 2013. The numbers-focused, Vermont-native has had his hand in hiring many of top campaign strategists this time around and is pushing Clinton's sharp focus on Iowa and New Hampshire.
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The strategist - Joel Benenson started to work with Clinton in 2014, when the former secretary of state was mulling a run and piecing a staff together. The lead pollster for President Obama's winning campaign and re-election, who also worked on Bill Clinton's 1996 race, will be the top campaign strategist for Hillary Clinton. His firm is already starting to test themes and messages for this campaign.
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The adman - Jim Margolis also once worked to defeat Hillary Clinton. Now, he is working with her. Margolis was a senior adviser to both President Barack Obama's successful campaigns and has worked with a number of senators, including Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid. Margolis will server as Clinton's top media adviser and ad maker.
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The right-hand man - Marlon Marshall has long been Robby Mook's trusted right-hand man and is seen as a talented organizer and field director. He knows what went right -- and wrong -- during Hillary Clinton's first presidential race because he was there and will be in charge of making adjustments this time. He helped found the Democratic consulting firm 270 Strategies and during a stint at the White House was tasked with promoting Obamacare enrollment.
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The fundraiser - While Hillary Clinton mulled her presidential run, Dennis Cheng pulled double duty for a short time: Working as the chief development officer at The Clinton Foundation and starting to build a 2016 fundraising team. Cheng, who is credited with raising more than $248 million for the foundation since 2011, will fill the campaign's top finance post and take on the daunting task of fortifying what is expected to be a billion-dollar campaign.
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The gate-keeper - Huma Abedin has worn many hats for Hillary Clinton - intern, "body woman," chief of staff - but the title that best describes her is gate keeper and confidant. No one without the last name Clinton is said to have a tighter relationship with the former secretary of state. Although her formal title in the 2016 campaign is not yet clear, she remains one of Clinton's most trusted personal aides.
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The wonk - As the campaign's top policy adviser, Jake Sullivan will look to navigate Clinton's campaign through complex issues, particularly on foreign policy matters like Iran. In 2011, Sullivan became the youngest director of policy in department history, an experience that earned him Clinton's implicit respect and trust.
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The protector- Cheryl Mills is one of Hillary Clinton's closest, longest confidants. She was a top lawyer in the Clinton White House and served as Hillary Clinton's chief of staff at the State Department. She also is a member of the Clinton Foundation board of directors. While Mills isn't expected to hold a formal campaign role, she will continue to have something more important: Hillary Clinton's ear.
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The enforcer - Most journalists in Washington can remember the last time they got a nasty-gram from Philippe Reines and a simple Google search will lead you to a handful. The veteran of Capitol Hill and Clinton's senior adviser at State has been a part of Clinton's communication team for years and is expected to play a role in 2016. This time, however, it will be from the outside.
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The communicator - Jennifer Palmieri has a deep history with Democratic presidential elections and will serve as the campaign's communications director. A member of the team's senior staff, Palmieri is known for her cordial and direct relations with the press, dating back to her time in the first Clinton White House. She last served as President Obama's communications director, but left the White House in March to join the Clinton campaign.
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The image maven - The job of retooling Hillary Clinton's image will fall primarily to Kristina Schake, a communications veteran whose background includes working for issue campaigns, multinational corporations and Hollywood stars. As Michelle Obama's communications director, Schake was credited with helping to turn the first lady into an everywoman known for dancing on national TV and touring colleges with her daughter.
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The brain - Neera Tanden is currently the head of the Center for American Progress. She's worked with Clinton since 1997, serving as a deputy campaign manager in the 2000 Senate campaign, her policy director in the Senate and during the 2008 presidential campaign. The two regularly talk and because CAP is a pro-Clinton research body, Tanden will continue to wield influence inside and outside the campaign.
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The institutionalist - Of all the people working on Clinton's 2016 campaign, Mandy Grunwald may know the Clintons the longest. Grunwald first worked for the Clintons in 1992, when she served as director of advertising on Bill Clinton's presidential campaign. Grunwald has grown closer with Hillary Clinton through the years and guided her advertising on the 2008 campaign. This time, she will be one of the top strategists to shape her message.
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The politico - Amanda Renteria, who unsuccessfully ran for Congress in 2014 in Calfornia, will serve as Clinton's national political director. She was the first Latina chief of staff on Capitol Hill when she worked for Michigan Sen. Debbie Stabenow in 2008.
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The techie - Stephanie Hannon left Google and her role as the company's director of product management for civic innovation and social impact to join the Clinton campaign. Hannon will oversee the implementation of Clinton's digital strategy, including both the strategic plans and technical side of building a website, apps and other web platforms for the campaign, most of which fell short to the Obama organization eight years ago.
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The poll also finds Democrats' overall enthusiasm for Clinton has waned. In April, shortly after she launched her campaign, 60% of Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters said they would be enthusiastic about her candidacy should she win the party's nomination for president. Now, just 43% feel that way. But neither Biden nor Sanders has mustered that level of enthusiasm among the Democratic faithful, 37% say they would be enthusiastic about Biden, 31% about Sanders. And Sanders prompts the greatest potential dissatisfaction, with 30% saying they would be dissatisfied or upset if he eventually won the party's nomination.
Clinton's fade in the Democratic race comes as an ideological divide within the party grows into a chasm. In August, Clinton held support from 43% of moderates and 46% of liberals. In the new poll, her support among moderates holds at 47%, while among liberals, it has plummeted to just 23%. Sanders has increased his share of the liberal vote (from 42% to 49%), while falling 9 points among moderates (from 24% to 15%). Meanwhile, Biden has gained ground in both groups.
And enthusiasm for Clinton among liberals has fallen nearly 40 points. Just 29% of liberal Democrats say they would be enthusiastic if she were the party's nominee, down from 68% in an April poll.
Asked why they back their candidate, most Clinton supporters said her experience is the draw: 58% say it's mostly on account of her on the job experience, 32% because of her positions on the issues, and 9% because they don't like the other candidates. Among those Democrats backing her rivals for the nomination, 55% say their choice was driven by the candidate's positions on the issues, while 27% cite experience and 17% say it's due to dislike of the other candidates.
There is some good news for Clinton in the poll, however, since most Democrats still say they expect her to be the party's eventual nominee and the more enthusiastic Democratic voters are more apt to be Clinton backers. Among Democrats and Democatic-leaning voters, 65% expect Clinton to top the party's ticket in 2016. And among those Democratic voters who say they are extremely or very enthusiastic about voting for president next year -- a group which may be more likely to cast ballots in next year's primary contests -- 42% back Clinton, 29% Sanders and 15% Biden.
The CNN/ORC Poll was conducted by telephone September 4-8 among a random national sample of 1,012 adults. This sample included 930 interviews with registered voters, 395 of whom were self-identified Democrats or Democratic-leaning independents. For results among all registered voters, the margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3 percentage points. Among Democratic voters, it is plus or minus 5 points.