Donald Trump is at the top of recent polls of GOP voters. And he’s also the most popular among GOP women. He got 15% support to Jeb Bush’s 15% support in the CNN/ORC poll released July 26.
But broadening out to the general electorate in that most recent CNN/ORC national poll, more than six in 10 women view Trump unfavorably. It’s a significant factor in why, among women voters, Hillary Clinton beats Trump by a whopping 28 points in the national poll. (That’s nearly twice her 15-point edge over Jeb Bush among women).
These 2012 figures illustrate the shifting demographics of battleground Iowa: In the GOP caucuses, women are a smaller slice of the pie; but come November, they are the majority. Iowa voted Democratic in the past two presidential elections.
A very similar dynamic in another small but important swing state – New Hamsphire. Men are a majority in the Republican primary, but women are the bigger slice when the general election rolls around in November. Democrats have won New Hampshire in the past three presidential elections.
Nearly seven in 10 Iowa women view Trump unfavorably. It is summer 2015, so there is time, but it is near impossible to think Trump could be competitive in November 2016 in Iowa unless those numbers improved significantly. (For comparison, Clinton is viewed unfavorably by 49 percent of Iowa women).
In a poll of likely 2016 Republican New Hampshire primary voters, nearly half of women view Trump unfavorably. With a crowded primary field, perhaps less of a problem, but still a problem.
And looking ahead to the 2016 New Hampshire general election, again Trump would face an urgent image repair challenge. Nearly two-thirds of New Hampshire women view him unfavorably, a big obstacle to winning. For comparison, Clinton is viewed unfavorably by 49% of New Hampshire women.