Hillary Clinton doesn’t just have to worry about Republicans in 2016. She’d better keep an eye on Janet Yellen, too.
Yellen, the chair of the Federal Reserve, signaled this week that the central bank is heading toward the first interest rate hike since the economic collapse. After six years of near-zero interest rates, an increase – which could come as early as June or July – would amount to one of the final chapters of the financial crisis that wrecked the economy.
But for Clinton and congressional Democrats, a rate increase could emerge as an unwelcome wild card in 2016.
The economic turnaround is a critical selling point for Democrats hoping to keep the White House and retake at least one chamber of Congress next year. For the first time since President Barack Obama took office, the labor market is growing at a healthy clip and unemployment has returned to pre-crisis levels. Higher interest rates would increase the cost of everything from home loans to credit card borrowing and could put a damper on economic growth.
New York Sen. Chuck Schumer told CNN it would be “premature to raise rates and slow down the recovery before we’ve seen wages heading back up.”
Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown, the top Democrat on the Banking Committee, also encouraged caution.
“Given the slack in the labor market and the minuscule increases in the wages for most Americans, the Fed should continue to be patient so as not to choke off the recovery at a time when the stronger dollar is already putting pressure on it,” he said.
California Rep. Maxine Waters, the highest-ranking Democrat on the House Financial Services Committee, warned that “the risk of acting prematurely is significant.”
Nestled in a marble building facing the National Mall, Fed officials are legendary for their independence from Washington chatter. But the central bank has found itself entangled in politics before.
Jimmy Carter lost his reelection campaign in 1980 amid a Fed crackdown on inflation. After his defeat in 1992, President George H.W. Bush cast blame on then-Chairman Alan Greenspan’s management of the Fed.
“I reappointed him, and he disappointed me,” Bush famously said.
If Democrats are getting jittery, plenty of Republicans are pleased about the upcoming rate hike. For years, the GOP has blasted the Fed for its massive bond-buying programs and keeping rates near-zero for too long.
“The chorus of complaints has come mostly from Republicans,” said Donald Kohn, former vice chairman of the Federal Reserve.
GOP Rep. Bill Huizenga of Michigan, chairman of the Financial Services Monetary Policy Subcommittee, welcomed the change in the Fed’s language suggesting a rate increase is in the offing.
“For more than six years, the Federal Reserve has artificially suppressed interest rates to near-zero levels,” Huizenga said. “If now isn’t the right time to start raising rates, when is?”
Yellen faces the daunting task of overseeing the Fed as it move rates away from near-zero levels. Rates have never been so low for so long and it’s impossible to predict what kind of ripple effects raising rates could have on the broader economy.
“There is no way for us to know how this is going to go because we’ve never been here before,” said Lewis Alexander, chief U.S. economist at Nomura.
For Yellen and the Fed, the challenge is to chart a middle path between rate hikes that could halt growth and a status quo that could lead to inflation. Fed watchers say no matter how carefully Yellen and her colleagues execute their next delicate juggling act, the criticism is bound to come from both sides of the interest rate debate.
“The Fed’s going to decide what the Fed needs to do and when they do it, one side of the aisle will say: What took you so long? And the other side of the aisle will say: What’s your hurry?’ said Stuart Hoffman, chief economist for PNC. “And that means the Fed will probably feel that they got it about right.”
Photos: Hillary Clinton's life in the spotlight
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Hillary Clinton accepts the Democratic Party's nomination for president at the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia on July 28, 2016. The former first lady, U.S. senator and secretary of state was the first woman to lead the presidential ticket of a major political party.
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Before marrying Bill Clinton, she was Hillary Rodham. Here she attends Wellesley College in Massachusetts. Her commencement speech at Wellesley's graduation ceremony in 1969 attracted national attention. After graduating, she attended Yale Law School.
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Rodham was a lawyer on the House Judiciary Committee, whose work led to impeachment charges against President Richard Nixon in 1974.
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In 1975, Rodham married Bill Clinton, whom she met at Yale Law School. He became the governor of Arkansas in 1978. In 1980, the couple had a daughter, Chelsea.
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Arkansas' first lady, now using the name Hillary Rodham Clinton, wears her inaugural ball gown in 1985.
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The Clintons celebrate Bill's inauguration in Little Rock, Arkansas, in 1991. He was governor from 1983 to 1992, when he was elected President.
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Bill Clinton comforts his wife on the set of "60 Minutes" after a stage light broke loose from the ceiling and knocked her down in January 1992.
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In June 1992, Clinton uses a sewing machine designed to eliminate back and wrist strain. She had just given a speech at a convention of the International Ladies' Garment Workers Union.
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During the 1992 presidential campaign, Clinton jokes with her husband's running mate, Al Gore, and Gore's wife, Tipper, aboard a campaign bus.
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Clinton accompanies her husband as he takes the oath of office in January 1993.
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The Clintons share a laugh on Capitol Hill in 1993.
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Clinton unveils the renovated Blue Room of the White House in 1995.
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Clinton waves to the media in January 1996 as she arrives for an appearance before a grand jury in Washington. The first lady was subpoenaed to testify as a witness in the investigation of the Whitewater land deal in Arkansas. The Clintons' business investment was investigated, but ultimately they were cleared of any wrongdoing.
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The Clintons hug as Bill is sworn in for a second term as President.
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The first lady holds up a Grammy Award, which she won for her audiobook "It Takes a Village" in 1997.
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The Clintons dance on a beach in the U.S. Virgin Islands in January 1998. Later that month, Bill Clinton was accused of having a sexual relationship with former White House intern Monica Lewinsky.
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Clinton looks on as her husband discusses the Monica Lewinsky scandal in the Roosevelt Room of the White House on January 26, 1998. Clinton declared, "I did not have sexual relations with that woman." In August of that year, Clinton testified before a grand jury and admitted to having "inappropriate intimate contact" with Lewinsky, but he said it did not constitute sexual relations because they had not had intercourse. He was impeached in December on charges of perjury and obstruction of justice.
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The first family walks with their dog, Buddy, as they leave the White House for a vacation in August 1998.
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President Clinton makes a statement at the White House in December 1998, thanking members of Congress who voted against his impeachment. The Senate trial ended with an acquittal in February 1999.
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Clinton announces in February 2000 that she will seek the U.S. Senate seat in New York. She was elected later that year.
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Clinton makes her first appearance on the Senate Environment and Natural Resources Committee.
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Sen. Clinton comforts Maren Sarkarat, a woman who lost her husband in the September 11 terrorist attacks, during a ground-zero memorial in October 2001.
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Clinton holds up her book "Living History" before a signing in Auburn Hills, Michigan, in 2003.
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Clinton and another presidential hopeful, U.S. Sen. Barack Obama, applaud at the start of a Democratic debate in 2007.
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Obama and Clinton talk on the plane on their way to a rally in Unity, New Hampshire, in June 2008. She had recently ended her presidential campaign and endorsed Obama.
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Obama is flanked by Clinton and Vice President-elect Joe Biden at a news conference in Chicago in December 2008. He had designated Clinton to be his secretary of state.
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Clinton, as secretary of state, greets Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin during a meeting just outside Moscow in March 2010.
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The Clintons pose on the day of Chelsea's wedding to Marc Mezvinsky in July 2010.
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In this photo provided by the White House, Obama, Clinton, Biden and other members of the national security team receive an update on the mission against Osama bin Laden in May 2011.
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Clinton checks her Blackberry inside a military plane after leaving Malta in October 2011. In 2015, The New York Times reported that Clinton exclusively used a personal email account during her time as secretary of state. The account, fed through its own server, raises security and preservation concerns. Clinton later said she used a private domain out of "convenience," but admits in retrospect "it would have been better" to use multiple emails.
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Clinton arrives for a group photo before a forum with the Gulf Cooperation Council in March 2012. The forum was held in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
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Obama and Clinton bow during the transfer-of-remains ceremony marking the return of four Americans, including U.S. Ambassador Christopher Stevens, who were killed in Benghazi, Libya, in September 2012.
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Clinton ducks after a woman threw a shoe at her while she was delivering remarks at a recycling trade conference in Las Vegas in 2014.
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Clinton, now running for President again, performs with Jimmy Fallon during a "Tonight Show" skit in September 2015.
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Clinton testifies about the Benghazi attack during a House committee meeting in October 2015. "I would imagine I have thought more about what happened than all of you put together," she said during the 11-hour hearing. "I have lost more sleep than all of you put together. I have been wracking my brain about what more could have been done or should have been done." Months earlier, Clinton had acknowledged a "systemic breakdown" as cited by an Accountability Review Board, and she said that her department was taking additional steps to increase security at U.S. diplomatic facilities.
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U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders shares a lighthearted moment with Clinton during a Democratic presidential debate in October 2015. It came after Sanders gave his take on the Clinton email scandal. "The American people are sick and tired of hearing about the damn emails," Sanders said. "Enough of the emails. Let's talk about the real issues facing the United States of America."
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Clinton is reflected in a teleprompter during a campaign rally in Alexandria, Virginia, in October 2015.
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Clinton walks on her stage with her family after winning the New York primary in April.
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After Clinton became the Democratic Party's presumptive nominee, this photo was posted to her official Twitter account. "To every little girl who dreams big: Yes, you can be anything you want -- even president," Clinton said. "Tonight is for you."
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Obama hugs Clinton after he gave a speech at the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia. The president said Clinton was ready to be commander in chief. "For four years, I had a front-row seat to her intelligence, her judgment and her discipline," he said, referring to her stint as his secretary of state.
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Clinton arrives at a 9/11 commemoration ceremony in New York on September 11. Clinton, who was diagnosed with pneumonia two days before, left early after feeling ill. A video appeared to show her stumble as Secret Service agents helped her into a van.
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Clinton addresses a campaign rally in Cleveland on November 6, two days before Election Day. She went on to lose Ohio -- and the election -- to her Republican opponent, Donald Trump.
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After conceding the presidency to Trump in a phone call earlier, Clinton addresses supporters and campaign workers in New York on Wednesday, November 9. Her defeat marked a stunning end to a campaign that appeared poised to make her the first woman elected US president.