Will Venezuela abandon Chavismo?

David Frum, CNN Contributor
Updated 4:58 PM EST, Wed February 19, 2014
A member of the Bolivarian National Police clashes with protestors during a demonstration against Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in Caracas on Saturday, May 10. Clashes between anti-government protesters and security forces have left more than 40 people dead and about 800 injured since February, according to officials.
Protests in Venezuela —
A member of the Bolivarian National Police clashes with protestors during a demonstration against Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in Caracas on Saturday, May 10. Clashes between anti-government protesters and security forces have left more than 40 people dead and about 800 injured since February, according to officials.
MIGUEL GUTIERREZ/EPA /LANDOV
Venezuelan riot police stormed four encampments of opposition students on Thursday, May 8, across Caracas, including one in front of the United Nations headquarters in the capital city, detaining hundreds.
Protests in Venezuela —
Venezuelan riot police stormed four encampments of opposition students on Thursday, May 8, across Caracas, including one in front of the United Nations headquarters in the capital city, detaining hundreds.
CARLOS BECERRA/AFP/Getty Images
Venezuelan National Guard personnel in riot gear dismantle a students' encampment in front of the U.N. headquarters in Caracas on May 8.
Protests in Venezuela —
Venezuelan National Guard personnel in riot gear dismantle a students' encampment in front of the U.N. headquarters in Caracas on May 8.
CARLOS BECERRA/AFP/Getty Images
Venezuelan riot police arrest a student taking part in an anti-government protest in Caracas on May 8.
Protests in Venezuela —
Venezuelan riot police arrest a student taking part in an anti-government protest in Caracas on May 8.
JUAN BARRETO/AFP/Getty Images
Members of the Venezuelan National Guard detain a man during a protest against the government of President Nicolas Maduro in Caracas, Venezuela, on Saturday, April 26. Over several months, protesters unhappy with Venezuela's economy and rising crime have squared off against security forces.
Protests in Venezuela —
Members of the Venezuelan National Guard detain a man during a protest against the government of President Nicolas Maduro in Caracas, Venezuela, on Saturday, April 26. Over several months, protesters unhappy with Venezuela's economy and rising crime have squared off against security forces.
MIGUEL GUTIERREZ/EPA /LANDOV
Demonstrators destroy a bank sign in Caracas during a protest against the government on Sunday, April 20.
Protests in Venezuela —
Demonstrators destroy a bank sign in Caracas during a protest against the government on Sunday, April 20.
JUAN BARRETO/AFP/Getty Images
Police officers shield themselves from fireworks thrown by protesters in Caracas on April 20.
Protests in Venezuela —
Police officers shield themselves from fireworks thrown by protesters in Caracas on April 20.
JUAN BARRETO/AFP/Getty Images
A man helps an injured demonstrator in Caracas on April 20.
Protests in Venezuela —
A man helps an injured demonstrator in Caracas on April 20.
JUAN BARRETO/AFP/Getty Images
A masked protester watches clashes with the National Police in Caracas on Thursday, April 17.
Protests in Venezuela —
A masked protester watches clashes with the National Police in Caracas on Thursday, April 17.
Ramon Espinosa/AP
A police officer runs from a fire set off by a Molotov cocktail thrown by protesters in Caracas on April 17.
Protests in Venezuela —
A police officer runs from a fire set off by a Molotov cocktail thrown by protesters in Caracas on April 17.
JUAN BARRETO/AFP/Getty Images
A masked anti-government demonstrator throws a tear gas canister back at National Police during clashes in Caracas on Saturday, April 12.
Protests in Venezuela —
A masked anti-government demonstrator throws a tear gas canister back at National Police during clashes in Caracas on Saturday, April 12.
Fernando Llano/AP
A protester shouts for fellow demonstrators to not attack the National Police trapped under a highway with protesters during clashes on April 12.
Protests in Venezuela —
A protester shouts for fellow demonstrators to not attack the National Police trapped under a highway with protesters during clashes on April 12.
Fernando Llano/AP
A student opposed to the Venezuelan government looks toward the National Police during a protest outside the Central University of Venezuela in Caracas on Thursday, April 3.
Protests in Venezuela —
A student opposed to the Venezuelan government looks toward the National Police during a protest outside the Central University of Venezuela in Caracas on Thursday, April 3.
Fernando Llano/AP
An opposition student struggles with members of a pro-government group at the Central University of Venezuela on April 3.
Protests in Venezuela —
An opposition student struggles with members of a pro-government group at the Central University of Venezuela on April 3.
Fernando Llano/AP
People shout insults at police Tuesday, April 1, during clashes between police and anti-government protesters in Caracas.
Protests in Venezuela —
People shout insults at police Tuesday, April 1, during clashes between police and anti-government protesters in Caracas.
Fernando Llano/AP
Members of Venezuela's National Police clash with demonstrators in the Cachao sector of Caracas on Monday, March 31.
Protests in Venezuela —
Members of Venezuela's National Police clash with demonstrators in the Cachao sector of Caracas on Monday, March 31.
MIGUEL GUTIERREZ/epa/LANDOV
Protesters clash with members of Venezuela's National Police during a protest against President Nicolas Maduro's government on Sunday, March 30, in Caracas.
Protests in Venezuela —
Protesters clash with members of Venezuela's National Police during a protest against President Nicolas Maduro's government on Sunday, March 30, in Caracas.
MIGUEL GUTIERREZ/EPA/LANDOV
Officers stand guard during an anti-government march in Caracas on Saturday, March 29.
Protests in Venezuela —
Officers stand guard during an anti-government march in Caracas on Saturday, March 29.
FEDERICO PARRA/AFP/Getty Images
Thousands fill the streets of Caracas on Saturday, March 22, during an anti-government protest. Meanwhile, a crowd of pro-government students marched against what they called "fascist violence."
Protests in Venezuela —
Thousands fill the streets of Caracas on Saturday, March 22, during an anti-government protest. Meanwhile, a crowd of pro-government students marched against what they called "fascist violence."
Manuel Hernandez/XINHUA/LANDOV
Riot police shoot tear gas during the March 22 protest.
Protests in Venezuela —
Riot police shoot tear gas during the March 22 protest.
JUAN BARRETO/AFP/Getty Images
Law enforcement personnel use water cannons to disperse demonstrators on March 22.
Protests in Venezuela —
Law enforcement personnel use water cannons to disperse demonstrators on March 22.
JUAN BARRETO/AFP/Getty Images
Demonstrators clash with members of the National Police after a mass meeting called by opposition students in Caracas on Thursday, March 20.
Protests in Venezuela —
Demonstrators clash with members of the National Police after a mass meeting called by opposition students in Caracas on Thursday, March 20.
SANTI DONAIRE/EPA
A person holds a smoking canister as demonstrators clash with members of the National Police on March 20 in Caracas.
Protests in Venezuela —
A person holds a smoking canister as demonstrators clash with members of the National Police on March 20 in Caracas.
SANTI DONAIRE/EPA
People wearing masks and helmets duck behind a tree as demonstrators clash with members of the National Police on March 20 in Caracas.
Protests in Venezuela —
People wearing masks and helmets duck behind a tree as demonstrators clash with members of the National Police on March 20 in Caracas.
SANTI DONAIRE/EPA
People take part in a protest against President Nicolas Maduro in Caracas on Sunday, March 16.
Protests in Venezuela —
People take part in a protest against President Nicolas Maduro in Caracas on Sunday, March 16.
MIGUEL GUTIERREZ/EPA/LANDOV
Anti-government protesters kneel as National Guardsmen arrest them in Caracas on March 16.
Protests in Venezuela —
Anti-government protesters kneel as National Guardsmen arrest them in Caracas on March 16.
Esteban Felix/AP
A National Guard member stands during an anti-government march in Caracas on March 16.
Protests in Venezuela —
A National Guard member stands during an anti-government march in Caracas on March 16.
Esteban Felix/AP
A demonstrator clashes with government forces during a protest in Caracas on Saturday, March 15.
Protests in Venezuela —
A demonstrator clashes with government forces during a protest in Caracas on Saturday, March 15.
JUAN BARRETO/AFP/Getty Images
Clashes continue March 15 in Caracas.
Protests in Venezuela —
Clashes continue March 15 in Caracas.
JUAN BARRETO/AFP/Getty Images
Riot police face off with students in Caracas on March 15.
Protests in Venezuela —
Riot police face off with students in Caracas on March 15.
LEO RAMIREZ/AFP/Getty Images
An injured demonstrator receives help during clashes in Caracas on March 15.
Protests in Venezuela —
An injured demonstrator receives help during clashes in Caracas on March 15.
LEO RAMIREZ/AFP/Getty Images
Anti-government activists, left, face riot police in Caracas on Thursday, March 13.
Protests in Venezuela —
Anti-government activists, left, face riot police in Caracas on Thursday, March 13.
LEO RAMIREZ/AFP/Getty Images
An activist is taken by police during an anti-government protest in Caracas on March 13.
Protests erupt in Venezuela —
An activist is taken by police during an anti-government protest in Caracas on March 13.
LEO RAMIREZ/AFP/Getty Images
Police officers put out a Molotov cocktail on March 13.
Protests in Venezuela —
Police officers put out a Molotov cocktail on March 13.
LEO RAMIREZ/AFP/Getty Images
Venezuelan students clash with riot police during a protest against the government on Wednesday, March 12.
Protests in Venezuela —
Venezuelan students clash with riot police during a protest against the government on Wednesday, March 12.
JUAN BARRETO/AFP/Getty Images
Students walk amid tear gas shot by riot police in Caracas on March 12.
Protests erupt in Venezuela —
Students walk amid tear gas shot by riot police in Caracas on March 12.
LEO RAMIREZ/AFP/Getty Images
Protesters run from a water cannon blast shot by police in Caracas on March 12.
Protests erupt in Venezuela —
Protesters run from a water cannon blast shot by police in Caracas on March 12.
Fernando Llano/AP
A police officer is removed from the front line of clashes after being overwhelmed by tear gas in Caracas.
Protests erupt in Venezuela —
A police officer is removed from the front line of clashes after being overwhelmed by tear gas in Caracas.
Alejandro Cegarra/AP
An injured protester is helped away in Caracas on March 12.
Protests erupt in Venezuela —
An injured protester is helped away in Caracas on March 12.
LEO RAMIREZ/AFP/Getty Images
A riot policeman kicks back a tear gas bomb during a protest in Caracas on March 12.
Protests erupt in Venezuela —
A riot policeman kicks back a tear gas bomb during a protest in Caracas on March 12.
JUAN BARRETO/AFP/Getty Images
A protester throws a tear gas canister in Altamira, Venezuela, on Sunday, March 9.
Protests erupt in Venezuela —
A protester throws a tear gas canister in Altamira, Venezuela, on Sunday, March 9.
stringer/XINHUA/LANDOv
Police keep formation during protests against the government in Caracas on Saturday, March 8.
Protests erupt in Venezuela —
Police keep formation during protests against the government in Caracas on Saturday, March 8.
MIGUEL GUTIERREZ/EPA/LANDOV
National Guard members arrest an anti-government protester during clashes in the Los Ruices neighborhood of Caracas on Thursday, March 6.
Protests erupt in Venezuela —
National Guard members arrest an anti-government protester during clashes in the Los Ruices neighborhood of Caracas on Thursday, March 6.
Fernando Llano/AP
National Guard members take cover as a firecracker launched by protesters explodes nearby in Caracas on Wednesday, March 5.
Protests erupt in Venezuela —
National Guard members take cover as a firecracker launched by protesters explodes nearby in Caracas on Wednesday, March 5.
Fernando Llano/AP
An activist throws tear gas back at riot police during a protest against the government March 5 in Caracas.
Protests erupt in Venezuela —
An activist throws tear gas back at riot police during a protest against the government March 5 in Caracas.
JUAN BARRETO/AFP/Getty Images
Protesters clash with the National Guard during a protest in Caracas on Tuesday, March 4.
Protests erupt in Venezuela —
Protesters clash with the National Guard during a protest in Caracas on Tuesday, March 4.
MIGUEL GUTIERREZ/EPA/LANDOV
National Guard members are deployed in Caracas on March 4.
Protests erupt in Venezuela —
National Guard members are deployed in Caracas on March 4.
JUAN BARRETO/AFP/Getty Images
A protester throws a tear gas canister toward National Guard members in Caracas on March 4.
Protests erupt in Venezuela —
A protester throws a tear gas canister toward National Guard members in Caracas on March 4.
JUAN BARRETO/AFP/Getty Images
Anti-government demonstrators gather during a protest in Caracas on March 4.
Protests erupt in Venezuela —
Anti-government demonstrators gather during a protest in Caracas on March 4.
LEO RAMIREZ/AFP/Getty Images
Protesters destroy a wall March 4 to get more rocks to throw at riot police in Caracas.
Protests erupt in Venezuela —
Protesters destroy a wall March 4 to get more rocks to throw at riot police in Caracas.
Rodrigo Abd/AP
National Guard members detain a protester March 4 in Caracas.
Protests erupt in Venezuela —
National Guard members detain a protester March 4 in Caracas.
Fernando Llano/AP
A National Guard officer points a tear gas launcher at demonstrators in Caracas on March 4.
Protests erupt in Venezuela —
A National Guard officer points a tear gas launcher at demonstrators in Caracas on March 4.
Fernando Llano/AP
Protesters use a giant slingshot to launch stones at police during clashes in Caracas on Monday, March 3.
Protests erupt in Venezuela —
Protesters use a giant slingshot to launch stones at police during clashes in Caracas on Monday, March 3.
Fernando Llano/AP
National Guard members throw tear gas canisters toward opposition activists in Caracas on March 3.
Protests erupt in Venezuela —
National Guard members throw tear gas canisters toward opposition activists in Caracas on March 3.
LEO RAMIREZ/AFP/Getty Images
A protester tries to throw a homemade bomb during clashes with police March 3 in Caracas.
Protests erupt in Venezuela —
A protester tries to throw a homemade bomb during clashes with police March 3 in Caracas.
LEO RAMIREZ/AFP/Getty Images
A protester ducks during clashes with police March 3 in Caracas.
Protests erupt in Venezuela —
A protester ducks during clashes with police March 3 in Caracas.
Fernando Llano/AP
A National Guard member shoots tear gas during protests in Caracas on March 3.
Protests erupt in Venezuela —
A National Guard member shoots tear gas during protests in Caracas on March 3.
LEO RAMIREZ/AFP/Getty Images
A masked protester with a makeshift shield kicks a tear gas canister launched by the National Guard during clashes in Caracas on Sunday, March 2.
Protests erupt in Venezuela —
A masked protester with a makeshift shield kicks a tear gas canister launched by the National Guard during clashes in Caracas on Sunday, March 2.
Rodrigo Abd/AP
Activists in Caracas march in protest against the government on March 2.
Protests erupt in Venezuela —
Activists in Caracas march in protest against the government on March 2.
LEO RAMIREZ/AFP/Getty Images
A protester hurls a Molotov cocktail at National Guard troops on March 2.
Protests erupt in Venezuela —
A protester hurls a Molotov cocktail at National Guard troops on March 2.
John Moore/Getty Images
A protester shouts during clashes with government forces in Caracas on March 2.
Protests erupt in Venezuela —
A protester shouts during clashes with government forces in Caracas on March 2.
Rodrigo Abd/AP
National Guard officers stand in formation after a patrol in Valencia, Venezuela, on Saturday, March 1.
Protests erupt in Venezuela —
National Guard officers stand in formation after a patrol in Valencia, Venezuela, on Saturday, March 1.
Rodrigo Abd/AP
Protesters clash with police forces in Caracas on March 1.
Protests erupt in Venezuela —
Protesters clash with police forces in Caracas on March 1.
Cristian Hernandez/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images
A demonstrator attends a rally with human rights activists in Caracas on Friday, February 28.
Protests erupt in Venezuela —
A demonstrator attends a rally with human rights activists in Caracas on Friday, February 28.
Rodrigo Abd/AP
Protesters take cover from a police water cannon in Caracas on February 28.
Protests erupt in Venezuela —
Protesters take cover from a police water cannon in Caracas on February 28.
Rodrigo Abd/AP
A demonstrator throws a rock at police during an anti-government protest in Valencia on Wednesday, February 26.
Protests erupt in Venezuela —
A demonstrator throws a rock at police during an anti-government protest in Valencia on Wednesday, February 26.
Rodrigo Abd/AP
A policeman fires his shotgun to disperse protesters in Valencia on February 26.
Protests erupt in Venezuela —
A policeman fires his shotgun to disperse protesters in Valencia on February 26.
Rodrigo Abd/AP
Women march to the National Guard headquarters in Caracas on February 26 to protest what they call excessive use of force against anti-government demonstrations.
Protests erupt in Venezuela —
Women march to the National Guard headquarters in Caracas on February 26 to protest what they call excessive use of force against anti-government demonstrations.
Fernando Llano/AP
An employee of a supermarket in Maracay, Venezuela, inspects the damage done by looters on February 26.
Protests erupt in Venezuela —
An employee of a supermarket in Maracay, Venezuela, inspects the damage done by looters on February 26.
Rodrigo Abd/AP
A man stands next to a burning street barricade during a protest against the Venezuelan government in Caracas on Monday, February 24.
Protests erupt in Venezuela —
A man stands next to a burning street barricade during a protest against the Venezuelan government in Caracas on Monday, February 24.
JUAN BARRETO/AFP/Getty Images
Henrique Capriles, an opposition leader and governor of the Venezuelan state of Miranda, joins in a news conference February 24 in Caracas. Opposition leaders and government officials blame each other for the unrest, and both sides show no sign of backing down.
Protests erupt in Venezuela —
Henrique Capriles, an opposition leader and governor of the Venezuelan state of Miranda, joins in a news conference February 24 in Caracas. Opposition leaders and government officials blame each other for the unrest, and both sides show no sign of backing down.
XINHUA/LANDOV
A pedestrian moves past a burning barricade blocking a highway in Caracas on February 24.
Protests erupt in Venezuela —
A pedestrian moves past a burning barricade blocking a highway in Caracas on February 24.
Rodrigo Abd/AP
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro acknowledges the crowd during a motorcycle rally organized in support of his government February 24 in Caracas.
Protests erupt in Venezuela —
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro acknowledges the crowd during a motorcycle rally organized in support of his government February 24 in Caracas.
Rodrigo Abd/AP
Lilian Tintori de Lopez, the wife of jailed opposition leader Leopoldo Lopez, center, walks hand in hand with actress Norkys Batista, left, and lawmaker Maria Corina Machado as they arrive for a news conference in Caracas on February 24.
Protests erupt in Venezuela —
Lilian Tintori de Lopez, the wife of jailed opposition leader Leopoldo Lopez, center, walks hand in hand with actress Norkys Batista, left, and lawmaker Maria Corina Machado as they arrive for a news conference in Caracas on February 24.
Fernando Llano/AP
A motorcyclist, left, argues with demonstrators blocking a highway in Caracas on February 24.
Protests erupt in Venezuela —
A motorcyclist, left, argues with demonstrators blocking a highway in Caracas on February 24.
Rodrigo Abd/AP
A man wearing a T-shirt with the likeness of Latin American hero Simon Bolivar joins in a pro-government march in Caracas on Sunday, February 23.
Protests erupt in Venezuela —
A man wearing a T-shirt with the likeness of Latin American hero Simon Bolivar joins in a pro-governmen