Both parties vie for control of the Senate

By Amy Herstek/CNN

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- With more than a third of U.S. senators up for re-election this year, Democrats hope to tip the balance of power in their favor, while Republicans want to offset any Democratic gains with a few wins of their own.

Out of the 34 senators up for re-election this year, 15 are Democrats and 19 Republicans.

The Republicans hold an eight seat majority in the Senate, where there are 54 Republicans and 46 Democrats.

The Democrats need to pick up five seats in the Senate to claim a majority. Such a success would remake the complexion of Congress, and set the stage for an altered relationship with the newest tenant in the White House -- whether that is Republican George W. Bush or Democrat Al Gore.

Vulnerable Republicans

In the last days of the campaign, six GOP incumbents are locked in extremely close races: William Roth of Delaware; Spencer Abraham of Michigan; Rod Grams of Minnesota; John Ashcroft of Missouri; Conrad Burns of Montana and Slade Gorton of Washington.

In Delaware, Roth, the powerful chairman of the Senate Finance Committee, faces popular Delaware Gov. Tom Carper. The Democratic Carper has a lengthy political resume, having served five terms in the U.S. House of Representatives, and he is now finishing up his second term as governor. The late-breaking factor in this campaign seems to be Roth's age, 79. While he is highlighting his 30-year legislative record in the Senate, Carper is 26 years younger than Roth and presents himself as Delaware's face of the future.

Republican Sen. William Roth and Democratic Gov. Tom Carper

Michigan's Abraham is seeking his second Senate term but faces a tough challenge from Democratic Rep. Debbie Stabenow. Abraham has held onto a slight lead in the polls, and heavily outspent his Democratic challenger. But Stabenow has made significant inroads among senior voters with her prescription drug plan and garnered media coverage with her bus trips to Canada to purchase cheaper prescription drugs. Both parties are devoting millions of dollars to this contest, and issue advocates have spent untold sums on television and radio ads. Despite the influx of cash, Abraham has failed to poll at the crucial 50 percent mark in state polls.

Minnesota Republican Sen. Grams is viewed as one of the Senate's most vulnerable incumbents. His personal problems -- a messy divorce, a publicized affair with a staff member and his son's troubles with the law -- have him outpolled by his Democratic challenger Mark Dayton, a former state auditor. He also has been outspent in the race.

For a blink of an eye, it looked like Missouri Republican Sen. John Ashcroft would win re-election after the mid-October death of Democrat Mel Carnahan, the state's popular two-term governor. But Carnahan's death came too close to November 7 to remove his name from the ballot. Missouri Gov. Roger Wilson, a Democrat who replaced Carnahan, has since said he would appoint Carnahan's widow, Jean, to fill Carnahan's seat should he win. Saying her husband's values, vision and ideals are "just too important to let die," Jean Carnahan has agreed to take her late husband's seat. As a result, Ashcroft remains in a tough race.

In Montana, incumbent Republican Burns is running neck-and-neck with his Democratic challenger, Brian Schweitzer. Schweitzer, a cattle rancher and alfalfa farmer, contends that Burns is out of touch with Montanans. The Democrat has closed the polling gap by being one of the first candidates to focus on health care for seniors -- taking groups of seniors to Canada for prescription drug buying sprees.

Republican Sen. Slade Gorton and former Democratic Rep. Maria Cantwell

Washington Republican Gorton faces an increasingly competitive Maria Cantwell, a former Democratic congresswoman who made millions as an executive with software company RealNetworks. Cantwell has sworn off PAC money and has self-financed a strong challenge to the three-term senator.

Vulnerable Democrats

Incumbent Democrats who could be in trouble this year include two-term Sen. Chuck Robb of Virginia, who has recently closed the gap with his Republican challenger, former Gov. George Allen. The race has been among the most expensive contests in the Commonwealth's history. The campaign in some ways has mirrored the presidential contest: personality counts. The sometimes-aloof Robb stands in contrast with voters to Allen's more personable manner.

Democratic Sen. Chuck Robb and former Republican Gov. George Allen

Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman should beat his Republican challenger, Waterbury Mayor Phillip Giordano. But Lieberman's spot as the No. 2 man on the Democratic presidential ticket would leave it up to Connecticut Gov. John Rowland, a Republican, to appoint someone to fill Lieberman's seat should Gore capture the White House.

In Georgia, Democratic Sen. Zell Miller is hoping to be elected to the seat he was appointed to fill after the death of Republican Sen. Paul Coverdell last July. While Miller, a popular former governor, faces seven challengers, his only serious threat comes from Republican Mack Mattingly, a former senator.

Open Seats

Democrats are hoping to pick up a seat in Florida with the retirement of Republican Sen. Connie Mack. Republican Rep. Bill McCollum, one of the prosecutors in the impeachment trial of President Clinton, faces state Insurance Commissioner Bill Nelson, a Democrat, as well as independent Willie Logan. While McCollum hasn't come under direct fire for his high-profile role in impeachment, it has left the impression that he is a conservative legislator in a state that is becoming more electorally diverse.

In Nebraska, former Gov. Ben Nelson, a Democrat, faces Republican Attorney General Don Stenberg. Nelson was defeated in his 1996 Senate bid but he continues to hold a solid edge over Stenberg. While Democrats are hoping to replace retiring Sen. Bob Kerrey with another Democrat, a strong turnout for Republican presidential nominee George W. Bush could turn the tide in Stenberg's favor.

Nevada Democrats are fielding trial lawyer Ed Bernstein as their choice to replace retiring Sen. Richard Bryan, a two-term Democrat. But Republican John Ensign, a former congressman, leads in the polls and Democrats face an uphill battle to keep this seat.

New Jersey has been the home of the most expensive Senate race in history. Democrat John Corzine, former CEO of Goldman-Sachs, has spent nearly $40 million to defeat Republican Bob Franks, a four-term congressman. Nevertheless, recent polls indicate Franks is within single digits of Corzine.

First lady Hillary Rodham Clinton is locked in a high-profile but tight race with Republican Rep. Rick Lazio as the two vie for the open Senate seat in New York. The race has garnered national media attention, as no sitting first lady has ever run for elected office. While he has campaigned as the anti-Clinton candidate, Lazio has been somewhat unsuccessful in rallying his base. But for Clinton to prevail, she must gain votes not only the Democratic Manhattan, but upstate and in the suburbs -- both of which are predominantly Republican.

Other races

In other races:

--Arizona Republican Sen. John Kyl does not face a Democratic Party challenger in his re-election bid and should win handily. He is running against three third-party candidates -- the Green Party's Vance Hansen; Barry Hess, a Libertarian; and William Toel, an independent.

--California Sen. Dianne Feinstein, a Democrat, is seeking a second full term. The popular senior senator faces Congressman Bill Campbell, a Republican from Silicon Valley. Feinstein has consistently led in polls and fund-raising and is expected to prevail.

--In Hawaii, Democratic Sen. Daniel Akaka faces Republican pilot John Carroll. Carroll has not mounted a serious challenge and Akaka is likely to win this contest.

--Indiana Republican Sen. Richard Lugar faces only token opposition from Democrat David Johnson. Lugar is seeking his fifth term and polls indicate he leads this race by well over 50 percent.

--Maine Sen. Olympia Snowe, a Republican, is expected to best her challenger, Democratic state Sen. Mark Lawrence. Snowe has led in statewide polls by more than 50 points and some say Lawrence is only using this race to boost his name recognition as he prepares to mount a 2002 challenge to the state's other Republican Sen. Susan Collins.

--Maryland Sen. Paul Sarbanes, a Democrat, is likely to easily defeat his Republican challenger Paul Rappaport.

--Massachusetts Sen. Edward Kennedy is likely to be elected to his seventh term in the Senate as he faces token opposition from Republican Jack E. Robinson and Libertarian Carla Howell. The Republican Party all but abandoned Robinson after he laid out his entire, foible-laced personal history on the Internet.

--Mississippi Republican Sen. Trent Lott is all but certain to defeat Democratic challenger Troy Brown. Lott, the Senate majority leader, has bested Brown in fund-raising by some $2.5 million and the race is perceived as such a sure thing that no polling has been performed.

--New Mexico Democrat Jeff Bingaman is expected to best his Republican challenger, former Rep. Bill Redmond.

--North Dakota Sen. Kent Conrad, a Democrat, is considered a sure bet over Republican challenger Duane Sand, a young and inexperienced candidate who served in the Navy.

--Ohio Republican Sen. Mike DeWine faces Democrat Ted Celeste, a real estate broker from a strong political family. DeWine, however, is expected to prevail.

--Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, a Republican, holds an edge over Democratic challenger Ron Klink, a four-term congressman.

--Rhode Island Republican Sen. Lincoln Chafee is vying to be elected to a full six-year term. Chafee was appointed to fulfill his father's term after his father, John Chafee, died in October 1999. The younger Chafee faces Democrat Bob Weygand, a two-term congressman and former lieutenant governor. The race is expected to be close but Chafee remains the favorite.

--Tennessee has trended Republican in recent years, and incumbent Sen. Bill Frist -- the Senate's first physician in some 50 years -- is expected to prevail over Democratic challenger Jeff Clark. Clark, a professor and political consultant, has had a hard time gaining momentum.

--In Texas, Democrat Gene Kelly, a retired Air Force lawyer, has mounted only a token challenge to incumbent Republican Kay Bailey Hutchison. Hutchison is expected to win handily.

--Utah Sen. Orrin Hatch, a Republican and chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee, is expected to win a fifth term over Democratic state Sen. Scott Howell.

--Vermont Republican Sen. Jim Jeffords is likely to defeat Democrat Ed Flanagan. Flanagan is the first openly gay Senate candidate of either major party, and the issue of gay civil unions has been a factor in this race as it has in other statewide contests.

--West Virginia Sen. Robert Byrd, a seven-term Democrat, is all but certain to defeat Republican David Gallaher.

--In Wisconsin, Democratic Sen. Herb Kohl holds a large lead over Republican challenger John Gillespie. Kohl has spent some $3 million of his own money in this race and is considered a safe bet for re-election.

--Wyoming Republican Sen. Craig Thomas is expected to win a second term over Democratic challenger Mel Logan, a coal miner.