Poll: Presidential race a dead heat
Two point Bush lead within margin of error
By CNN Polling Director Keating Holland
WASHINGTON (CNN) -- A CNN/Time poll, conducted Wednesday and Thursday, shows Texas Governor George W. Bush with a statistically insignificant 47 percent to 45 percent margin over Vice President Al Gore. The survey paints the portrait of a presidential race that is a virtual tie, just as the race had been for most of September.
The poll of 1,244 adult Americans, including 636 likely voters, was conducted
October 4-5, 2000, after Tuesday's presidential debate in Boston. What has happened to erase Gore's advantage in interviews conducted just before the debate? It looks Gore may have won Tuesday night's face-off with George W. Bush on debating points -- more in command of the facts and a better debater. But voters have doubts about Gore as a leader -- his trustworthiness and his willingness to say anything just to win -- qualities which have dominated post-debate coverage of the presidential campaign. Those charges appear to have stuck to Gore -- although it is useful to bear in mind that the public had similar views of Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996.
And while voters think Gore is better able to handle most major issues facing the country, they agree with Bush's view of the size and power of the federal government. Bottom line: it looks like Gore had a little momentum going into the debate, but lost it after the debate raised concerns about his trustworthiness -- bringing the race back to a virtual tie.
Just 54 percent say that Gore is honest and trustworthy enough to be president; 67 percent say that about Bush. Sixty percent say that Gore would say anything to get elected President; only 43 percent say that about Bush. Fifty-two percent believe that Gore changes his mind too often on important issues just to win votes; only a third feel that way about Bush.
Each of the above concerns was raised by Gore's performance in Tuesday night's debate, which may explain why Gore has not gained any ground and may have even lost some pre-debate momentum despite the perception among debate watchers that he did the best job on Tuesday. Debate-watchers felt that Gore was a better debater and was more in command of the facts, but they thought Bush was more likeable and were split over which candidate was more believable.
Most Americans think that Gore would be better able to handle most of the major issues facing the country, including Medicare, prescription drugs, Social Security, the economy, world affairs, and education, although on some of those issues his edge is small. But Bush may be able to blunt some of the edge by arguing that Gore would increase the size of the government. Most Americans say that Bush agrees with their view of the size and role of the federal government; a majority don't feel that way about Gore. And 56 percent say that Gore would substantially increase the size of the government. 48 percent say that Bush would enrich the wealthiest one percent of Americans.
CNN/TIME POLL
October 4-5
Asked of likely voters: Suppose the election for President were being held today, and you had to choose between Al Gore and Joseph Lieberman, the Democrats; George W. Bush and Dick Cheney, the Republicans; Ralph Nader and Winona LaDuke, the Green Party candidates; and Pat Buchanan, the Reform Party candidate. For whom would you vote -- Gore, Bush, Buchanan, or Nader?
Bush 47%
Gore 45
Nader 4
Buchanan 1
Sampling error: +/-4% pts
CNN/TIME POLL
October 4-5
Asked of likely voters: Do you think the respective candidates would say anything to get elected president?
Yes No
Gore 60% 37%
Bush 43 53
Sampling error: +/-4% pts
CNN/TIME POLL
October 4-5
Asked of likely voters: Please tell me whether you agree or disagree with the statements, "Al Gore changes his mind too often on important issues just to win votes," and "George W. Bush changes his mind too often on important issues just to win votes."
Yes No
Gore 52% 44%
Bush 34 59
Sampling error: +/-4% pts
CNN/TIME POLL
October 4-5
Asked of likely voters: Do you think Al Gore is honest and trustworthy enough to be president? Do you think George W. Bush is honest and trustworthy enough to be president?
Yes No
Bush 67% 27%
Gore 54 42
Sampling error: +/-4% pts
CNN/TIME POLL
October 4-5
Asked of debate watchers: Regardless of how you plan to vote, who do you think did the best in the presidential debate - Al Gore or George W, Bush?
Gore 51%
Bush 37
Sampling error: +/-4% pts
CNN/TIME POLL
October 4-5
Asked of debate watchers: In the presidential debate, which candidate - Al Gore or George W. Bush -- do you think: Was a better debater? Had better command of the facts?
Gore Bush
Better debater 59% 29%
In command of the facts 53 35
Sampling error: +/-4% pts
CNN/TIME POLL
October 4-5
Asked of debate watchers: In the presidential debate, which candidate - Al Gore or George W. Bush - do you think: Was more likeable? Was more believable? Was more polite?
Gore Bush
More likeable 42% 49%
More believable 45 47
More polite 44 45
Sampling error: +/-4% pts
CNN/TIME POLL
October 4-5
As you my know, the Commission on Presidential Debates determined that Ralph Nader should not participate in Tuesday's debate. Do you personally think the commission should have allowed Ralph Nader to participate in the debate, or not? What about Pat Buchanan, do you personally thing the commission should have allowed Pat Buchanan to participate in the debate or not?
Yes No
Nader 54% 32%
Buchanan 49 39
Sampling error: +/-3% pts
CNN/TIME POLL
October 4-5
Asked of likely voters: Which candidate -- George W. Bush or Al Gore --shares your view on the size of the government?
Yes No
Bush 53% 41%
Gore 43 51
Sampling error: +/-4% pts
CNN/TIME POLL
October 4-5
Asked of likely voters: Which candidate -- George W. Bush or Al Gore -- do you think would do a better job on each of the following issues?
Gore Bush
Medicare 53% 39%
Prescription drugs 52 38
Social Security 51 42
Abortion 50 36
Economy 50 44
Education 49 44
World affairs 47 43
Defense 35 58
Taxes 43 50
Oil prices 39 47
Sampling error: +/-4% pts
CNN/TIME POLL
October 4-5
Asked of likely voters: Do you think the following applies or does not apply to Al Gore: Would increase the size of government?
Yes 56%
No 36
Sampling error: +/-4% pts
CNN/TIME POLL
October 4-5
Asked of likely voters: Do you think the following applies or does not apply to George W. Bush: Would enrich the wealthiest one percent of Americans?
Yes 48%
No 43
Sampling error: +/-4% pts
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