Poll: Bush holds slight lead over McCain in South Carolina
Voters say Texas governor is more electable than McCain
BY Keating Holland/CNN
February 14, 2000
Web posted at: 5:38 p.m. EST (2238 GMT)
WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Texas Gov. George W. Bush currently holds a 49 percent to 42 percent lead over Sen. John McCain of Arizona among likely voters in this Saturday's GOP presidential primary in South Carolina, according to a new CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll.
Bush's key strengths appear to be his organization and the perception among likely Republican primary voters think he is more electable than McCain. Moderates and independents remain the core of McCain's support, but after a first flush of enthusiasm immediately following the New Hampshire primary, these voters now seem less likely to participate in Saturday's primary than a week ago.
McCain also has a lead among veterans, abortion-rights supporters, and voters who live in the coastal areas of the state -- but each of those groups is less than a third of all likely voters, and Bush has wide advantage among the remaining segments of the GOP primary electorate.
By a 59 percent to 29 percent margin, likely primary voters say that Bush has a better chance of beating the Democratic nominee in November than McCain does. McCain's major advantage over Bush is that likely voters say they admire him more than the Texas governor by a 46 percent-32 percent margin. But McCain has not been able to translate that into votes.
Three in 10 voters say that they have been contacted by the Bush organization -- and most of those say they will vote for Bush. By contrast, McCain's organization has contacted only 20 percent of likely voters, and a majority of those contacted by the McCain camp plan to vote for his rival.
Negative campaigning has not strongly influenced the race so far. Bush and McCain are both viewed favorably by more than three-quarters of all likely voters, and most say that neither Bush or McCain have attacked the other unfairly.
And likely voters equally assign blame for the negative campaign -- 30 percent say Bush started the negative campaign; 30 percent say McCain did, and 24 percent say that both are equally to blame or neither one is responsible.
The poll is based on interviews with 552 likely Republican primary voters. It was conducted Friday through Sunday.
Likely Voters'
Choice for Nominee |
Bush | 49% |
McCain | 42% |
Keyes | 5% |
Sampling error: +/-5% pts
|
Who Has Best Chance
To Win in November? |
Bush | 59% | |
McCain | 29% | |
Sampling error: +/-5% pts
|
Who Do You Admire More?
|
McCain | 46% |
Bush | 32% |
Sampling error: +/-5% pts
|
Likely Voters'
Opinion of Candidates |
| Bush | McCain |
Will keep economy strong | 51% | 31% |
Necessary experience | 47% | 35% |
Vision for the future | 44% | 38% |
Sampling error: +/-5% pts
|
Likely Voters'
Opinion of Candidates |
| Bush | McCain |
Strong leader | 44 | 45% |
Reformer | 40% | 44% |
Sampling error: +/-5% pts
|
Attacked the Other Candidate Unfairly?
|
| Yes | No |
McCain | 38% | 53% |
Bush | 35% | 55% |
Sampling error: +/-5% pts
|
Who is More Responsible
For Negative Campaigning? |
McCain | 30% |
Bush | 30% |
Both/Neither | 24% |
Sampling error: +/-5% pts
|
Have You Been Contacted
By Anyone Working For... |
| Yes | No |
Bush | 30% | 69% |
McCain | 20% | 79% |
Sampling error: +/-5% pts
|
Likely Voters'
Choice for Nominee |
| Republicans | Independents/Democrats |
Bush | 59% | 35% |
McCain | 34% | 55% |
Sampling error: +/-7% pts |
Likely Voters'
Choice for Nominee |
| Conservatives | Moderates/Liberals |
Bush | 54% | 41% |
McCain | 38% | 49% |
Sampling error: +/-7% pts
|
Likely Voters'
Choice for Nominee |
| Veterans | Non-veterans |
Bush | 43% | 51% |
McCain | 48% | 40% |
Sampling error: +/-8% pts
|
Likely Voters'
Choice for Nominee |
| Seacoast | Interior |
Bush | 40% | 53% |
McCain | 49% | 39% |
Sampling error: +/-8% pts
|
Likely Voters'
Choice for Nominee |
| Oppose Abortion | Support Abortion |
Bush | 53% | 37% |
McCain | 38% | 55% |
Sampling error: +/-8% pts |
|