Polls just closed in six states and most of Florida, which means we might start to see some early signs of where the House is going.
Keep your eyes on Virginia: Virginia might be the most important early sign of where the House is going. The Democrats' must-win there is in the 10th District, where strategists in both parties say Republican Rep. Barbara Comstock is unlikely to hold onto her seat in the DC suburbs. Republican Rep. Scott Taylor's race in the Norfolk-area 2nd District, though, is a much better bellwether for the national environment. And if the GOP Rep. Dave Brat loses in the 7th District outside Richmond -- or even if he's in a tight race -- it could be an early sign of a building Democratic wave.
Democrats saw one more district in Virginia emerge as competitive late in the cycle: the 5th District, where former journalist Leslie Cockburn takes on Republican Denver Riggleman, an Air Force veteran and distillery owner. A Democratic win here would be a sign of a tidal wave threatening to wipe out Republicans whose races weren't even on the national radar.
The Atlanta suburbs feature two wave-maker districts -- if Democrats win either, it'd mean they're in for a big night. In Georgia's 6th District, Republican Rep. Karen Handel -- who won a ballyhooed special election against Jon Ossoff last year -- faces Lucy McBath, a challenger whose unarmed son was shot and killed over a dispute about loud music. And in the 7th District, Republicans are furious that Rep. Rob Woodall never took his race seriously. "If you don't think it behooves you to put paid media on air, we're not going to come help you. We're not a welfare organization," a Republican official said.
Also keep your eye on a few wave-makers in Florida. The Tampa-area 15th District is an open seat that emerged as competitive late -- so late, in fact, that Republicans couldn't afford a rescue effort. On the Atlantic coast side, the 6th District's open-seat contest for former Rep. Ron DeSantis' old seat is another potential Democratic pick-up that would suggest the party is soaring past the 23 seats it needs for a House majority. If either of Republican Reps. Brian Mast or Vern Buchanan lose, it's another sign that Democrats are on the path to winning the House.
House battleground: Miami. South Florida is the site of two House battlegrounds. In the 26th District, GOP Rep. Carlos Curbelo has run well to his party's left on issues like climate change and immigration, and Republicans need him to survive. In the 27th District, what should be an easy Democratic pick-up has become daunting, as former Health and Human Services Secretary Donna Shalala -- the non-Spanish-speaking Democratic candidate in a majority Hispanic district -- faces former Spanish-language broadcast journalist Maria Elvira Salazar.
History-makers. In Georgia, the headliner is the governor's race between Republican Secretary of State Brian Kemp and Stacey Abrams, an emerging Democratic star who has combined a progressive platform with an appeal to black voters -- all with a chance to become the nation's first black female governor. If neither candidate tops 50%, the race will head to a runoff.
In Florida, a small portion of the panhandle is in Central time, so we'll need to wait an extra hour for full results to come in for the governor's race between Democratic Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum, a progressive favorite, and DeSantis, who has aligned himself so closely with Trump that this is a potential preview of 2020.
Democrats' Senate must-wins. The Florida Senate contest, with Republican Gov. Rick Scott challenging Democratic incumbent Bill Nelson, is one of the nation's most expensive and closely watched -- and if Nelson loses, it would severely diminish Democrats' shot at a majority.
A Midwestern state-level resurgence? Democratic former Consumer Financial Protection Bureau head Richard Cordray will try to win the governor's office in Ohio, a state Trump won by 9 percentage points in 2016. He faces Republican state Attorney General Mike DeWine. It's the first of several such tests for Democrats, who also hope to reverse GOP gains in Michigan, Iowa and Wisconsin.
Watch below: Three-term Democrat tries to hang on in Florida