Electoral History: New Mexico, along with Delaware, Illinois, and Missouri, is one of the ultimate bellwether states. Since winning statehood in 1912, it has supported the losing presidential candidate only once -- in 1976. (It backed Ford over Carter.)

Political Control: The Republicans currently control New Mexico's governorship, one U.S. Senate seat, and two of three U.S. House seats. The Democrats control one U.S. Senate seat, one U.S. House seat, and both houses of the state legislature.

Selected Demographics: In the 1996 general election, Hispanics made up a higher percentage of the total electorate in New Mexico than in any other state in the country. Twenty-eight percent of all voters were Hispanic compared to only 5 percent nationwide. Their lopsided support for Bill Clinton (65 percent for Clinton to 28 percent for Dole) enabled the President to carry the state even while losing the 56 percent of non-Hispanic whites by a 19-point margin (53 percent to 34 percent). In terms of total population -- not actual voters -- New Mexico has the highest percentage of Hispanics in the nation (40 percent). In 1996, 49 percent of all New Mexico voters made $30,000 or less annually versus 34 percent nationally. New Mexico was the third poorest state in the country by this standard.

Geography: Tight elections in New Mexico are generally decided in populous Albuquerque, which ordinarily leans Republican despite voting Democratic in the last two presidential contests. Southern New Mexico and the community of Las Cruces traditionally vote Republican; northern New Mexico and Santa Fe usually vote Democratic.

Other: Two factors may play to Bush's advantage here. First, the ranching country of eastern New Mexico, often referred to as "Little Texas," usually follows the voting patterns of the Texas plains, which are sure to provide solid support for the Texas governor. Second, Green Party candidate Ralph Nader could peel off a significant number of what would otherwise be Democratic votes. Environmental issues loom large in the liberal stronghold of Santa Fe, for example, but that can work against Democratic candidates if there is a third-party alternative available. In 1997, for example, Republican congressional candidate Bill Redmond was able to win a special election by 3 points in this Democratic district when a Green Party candidate won 17 percent of the total vote. (Redmond beat Democratic candidate Eric Serna, 43 percent to 40 percent.)